TheFFcoder (Jay)

A recent history of fibula fractures for NFL skill players We've seen them return quickly. But effectiveness falls off a cliff for up to a year after: Tony Pollard - Returned for OTAs after January 22nd injury (~4 months) - Fell from 1.02 fantasy points/opportunity in 2022 to 0.70 in 2023 (on only 75 more touches) Mark Andrews - Returned for the AFC Championship game after November 16th injury (~2 months) - Fell from 14.6 FPG pre-injury in 2023 to 11.1 FPG in 2024, with a major decrease in route participation Isiah Pacheco - Returned in Week 13 after Week 2 injury (~2.5 months) - Fell from 0.84 fantasy points/opportunity in 2023 to 0.45 for the rest of 2024 + playoffs, and still just 0.60 in 2025 Chris Godwin - Returned 11 months after Week 7 2024 injury (also the oldest player on this list when sustained, and had the most visibly gruesome dislocation on top of it) - Fell from 19.7 FPG/the best season of his career in 2024, to just 9.2 FPG in 2025. YPRR fell from 2.62 to 1.51 Quinshon Judkins - Expected back on the field in some fashion for training camp (starts in late July) after late December injury (~7 months) Cam Skattebo - Hopes to be cleared for training camp (starts in late July) after late October injury (~9 months) I'd posit: should we even care about positive-sounding injury news for Skattebo or Judkins this offseason? The question was never whether they'd be on the field for Week 1; it's whether they'll be anything close to themselves!

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for the price of almost free, Gunnar Helm is interesting

@TSeel14 Some things uncertainty can be reduced with more data (epistemic), and some things there is a degree of randomness that cannot be controlled for and no amount of data will lower the uncertainty (aleatory)

@FFcoder Sir, I don't speak Scientist thank you very much.

It’s easy to think that if we are able to reduce enough of the epistemic uncertainty in fantasy, the we can also solve for the aleatoric uncertainty, when the best we can do is ask how do we benefit when the aleatoric lands in a certain range of the distribution

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The truly fascinating thing about being handed a technology that can, at your mere whim, answer almost any question, is that I have never been more enthralled to deep dive into hard subjects and learn new things I never would have without it. We now need to teach love of learning

@YardsPerGretch Being open minded and accepting of the variance in your tone and speech allows the reader the freedom to let down their guards and do the same. No small feat in any aspect of life and you and @JakobSanderson are both exceptional at it.

I often feel like I'm overly critical of fantasy football work, but not because I think it's bad. I have this thing where I think so much of it is really useful but doesn't get home. It gets 80% of the way there with really good stuff, but then the other 20% doesn't land the plane. And the final 20% is kind of the whole thing. It's the part where you're turning all that great research and analysis into actionable advice. So I wind up critical sometimes because I actually really like something, and think it's so close, but there's a really unfortunate thing where the final conclusion winds up not being super helpful. In some cases, it can wind up being actively unhelpful, where the conclusion kind of flips what the research is actually saying. Very often this is because of a pressure to fill in what should be known uncertainty. In everything we try to do with predicting this sport, we have to understand a landscape of variables that cannot be pattern-matched, and where outcomes are dictated by stuff that just can't be modeled. There are too many things that dictate success or failure for each individual player and situation. I'm not a math professor, so maybe my technical commentary here won't be great, but I sometimes think of it statistically, about how 1 minus an r-squared figure amounts to "unexplained variance," and the football r-squareds are always like 0.60 at most, leaving 40% unexplained variance. What so much fantasy analysis does is gets so deep and so smart about the 60%, but then it is so sure of itself in the 60% that it makes assumptions for the 40% that come from the 60%. But if that's how it worked, our r-squareds would be 0.80. What we know is 40% of this is literally not knowable, at least to the degree we can model these things right now (and I suspect always with the way this sport works, but who knows). So, so much of fantasy football work does an awesome job of breaking down what we *can* know, but then there's this need for a catchy conclusion or actionable takeaway, and the pitfall is to fill in that unexplainable variance. But you can't be so certain about the 60% that it replaces the 40%. It's not that you can just work harder or come to a better piece of research to figure some future outcome out. The best analysts understand the way to play the things is to acknowledge the research clears the picture some, but you have to have a humility with the rest of it. It's deeply uncomfortable for some. It took me years to get more comfortable with it, and I still struggle with it all the time. One way to put it is you don't have to have a firm take at the end for your work to be helpful. In fact, one thing we know about fantasy football seasons is they are typically determined by a dozen key players or situations, no more. In some ways, you really only need to get to a few really strong conclusions (on teams or players) after a whole offseason of work and research. What you don't need to do is have a very strong conclusion on every single player, or every single thing you look at. That approach doesn't fit with what we know about football. It's the demand of content, and the nature of it, but that leads the work away from its own goal. There's seemingly a paradox there about making engaging stuff and also analyzing things correctly. This is obviously a long post, but I can wrap it up quickly now. What's so great about Jakob's work is he bridges the paradox. From the time I became familiar with his work, it was clear to me he had a knack for this that didn't require the years of being humbled it does for most analysts, myself included. It's not just that he knows where to stop short and acknowledge the uncertainty, but also that he still gets to so many strong conclusions, despite that. That balance is clearly evidenced in that piece linked above. The way he processes things is truly top tier, as I said, and as he keeps at it his ceiling as an analyst is probably higher than anyone in the entire space. Dude's still so young. FF analyst dynasty 1.01. I've already told Jakob this stuff myself, and he knows how I feel about his work. I didn't write this for him, like so many of the social media favors. I wrote it for you, and because in this industry, there's a lot of overlap and iterating and copycatting — however you want to say that — so I find it imperative that unique work that deserves the highest recommendation gets that, and gets emphasized and celebrated. If you read this, it's absolutely my opinion you need to go read his work and then subscribe and support him so he can make more.

I'm going to explain more in a reply, but I want to directly say I think Jakob's work is in the very top tier of football content. And this is him at his best. He lifted the paywall so it's free to read. Whether you're into fantasy or real football, read it.

@jmthrivept Should he uh… be doing that?

Underrated note: Patrick Mahomes is 5 months 1 day out from LEFT ACL/LCL recon. His golf swing has his left knee as the lead leg, meaning it absorbs majority of the torsional and shear stress through his swing (including varus stress to LCL). Pretty clean swing at 5 months!

@thdxr I hit this 6 days ago. I’m just exclusively back to Claude. I never got as good of results with, or trusted, gpt 5.5 as much anyways

i had a good several week run with gpt 5.5 today was completely miserable im so mad rn

I don't want to miss the next Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So I wrote about the personnel tendencies we see around the NFL, with direct predictions of which players will benefit from them. Everything from 2-WR sets to fullbacks to 3 TEs covered inside! Free read! fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2…

@drewmet_FF @Pat_Thorman Names that aren’t relevant for fantasy, make names that are, less so quite often though

@Pat_Thorman Half those names probably won't be relevant for fantasy, that's just listing the full depth chart

MIA was bottom of the NFL in 3-WR sets every year under McDaniel. LAC added FB Ingold and TE Kolar. LAC won't play a 3rd WR often, either. Add a likely run-heavier lean (Harbaugh) than McDaniels' Dolphins to a super-slow pace - and this is entirely reliant on efficiency. 👇

If this did exist, the odds of it in the next two weeks feel like they should be very high today. Absolute garbage output while burning through tokens at what feels like 3x the speed. Feels exactly like that day everyone knew something was up with Claude before it was announced

I have to hand it to OpenAi, pulling back on codex usage limits without telling anyone is causing far less anger than when Anthropic was transparent about it

Vikings finally got their QB

Outliers are outputs outside expectations for given inputs. We often label outputs as outliers, when in reality we failed to accurately asses or factor the inputs and presumed an inaccurate range of expectations. Easier to say outlier than reassess process

@YardsPerGretch @jagibbs_23 @JakobSanderson It is so easy to add to the curse of dimensionality in fantasy analysis. Adding data points and splits explodes the space and makes the meaningful connections harder to see and less impactful, while making what you are trying to solve for more removed from the data

Those splits don’t mean he can only thrive in 12, or with Downs off the field, or they need to use more 12 for Warren to win. That’s all too precise. They mean the Colts prioritized Warren in specific packages. That’s a positive, and could translate to an offense that will look different in 2026. To Jakob’s point, Warren has work to do earning targets in other stuff, but he was a rookie TE and growth there could be a further positive. It’s crazy to me people might split up his data so much it becomes some kind of bad or unsustainable success thing.

Tyler Warren splits on 1st or 2nd down, with Josh Downs on the field: - 22% target per route run rate - 6.5% first down per route run rate - 1.38 yards per route run - 214 routes run 29 different TEs averaged at least a 6.5% 1D/RR rate on 200+ routes. 23 TEs hit 1.38 YPRR.

Highest avoided sack/dropback rate in 2025 Via @FantasyPtsData

@PowerMizzoucom Stormin’ Norman is back baby!

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