James Turk

An insightful article by @KingKong9888 explaining how the #oil trade is being de-dollarized. While the #Petro-dollar is in decline, the Chinese #yuan & nature's #money (#gold) benefit. kingkong9888.substack.com/p/the-chinese-…

Since the 2008 #GFC, we've been living in an era of cheap #oil, when measuring its #price by nature's #money, which is #gold. Using gold money is the best way to make sense of prices, as this log scale chart shows. There are 2 eras: #GoldStandard & the fiat #currency era of the #dollar & other national #currencies which we have been using in #commerce & struggling with since 1971. The stark #volatility in the oil price after 1971 clouds #economic decisions, impairing commercial & investment activity. Instead of the narrow, steady 70-90oz Gold Standard range responding to oil's changing supply/demand conditions to buy 1k barrels of oil, prices fluctuated between 30-155oz, but note the decline since 2008 to as low as 11oz in the #RealPrice of oil. Cheap oil has created illusions of prosperity - the gap between how things appear (phony prices) & how things actually are (real costs, i.e. once oil is used, it’s gone). This gap has already begun narrowing as oil prices rise. Assuming 80oz is the normal gold money price for 1k barrels of #WTI oil, we can project oil in #USD terms as follows: ($4500/oz * 80) / 1000 barrels = $360 per barrel Other gold prices can also be used (like my $5833 projection for 2026): x.com/FGMR/status/20… ($5833 /oz * 80) / 1000 barrels = $466 per barrel, or to take a lower gold price ($2500 /oz * 80) / 1000 barrels = $200 per barrel We can't predict the future but we can see oil is cheap regardless of the gold price used to measure the #EconomicValue & natural price of 1k barrels of oil. Last week both #PreciousMetals broke below their initial support: $5000 & $80. The possibility of a deeper correction cannot be ruled out, but both are now very oversold having declined 8 consecutive days. That's a rare occurrence, so it's reasonable to expect a bounce this week. Has the war damaged the fundamental outlook for gold & #silver? The reasons for owning physical gold & silver remain strong. Oil is being re-priced to become more expensive regardless how it is measured: in fiat currency or gold money. But only the latter is a tangible asset with no counterparty risk, which is a unique feature that makes gold & silver the preferred ways to hold your #PurchasingPower in these uncertain and unpredictable times.

The #price of #gas & other #energy products are rising, but is it #inflation? Prices are determined by the interaction of 4 market-driven forces: supply & demand of the product being priced (measured) & the supply & demand of the #money being used as the measuring tool. Supply of #oil has fallen but maybe demand for it has fallen too, offsetting the impact on price from less supply. Can the #FederalReserve accurately measure any of the countless factors impacting supply of any energy product? No, of course not. The #Fed may have some sense on the supply of #dollars; the other 3 market-driven forces are impossible to measure & foolhardy to think their movement can be predicted. Outcomes are always better when letting the market sort it out. So why do we have a #Fed? #EndTheFed & end #LegalTender laws.

Yes, it makes sense. Since launching 25 years ago, #Goldmoney has demonstrated that it is a safe, convenient & economical way to store physical #gold #silver #platinum #palladium in your choice of first-class commercial #bullion #vaults around the world operated by independent vault companies. Then when you choose to sell, Goldmoney gives you access to market prices to provide you with #liquidity should you choose at any time to tap into what you have saved. Goldmoney is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (symbol XAU), one of the few publicly traded companies offering physical precious metals. Most importantly, as clearly stated in our Client Agreement, all of the physical metal our customers own is being stored for them & is reported in our audited financial statements. Adding all of these together, Goldmoney has a demonstrated track record of providing you and every other customer with the assurances of integrity that your precious metal is safe, which is the most important objective for: gold - nature's money & the bedrock asset in everyone's portfolio silver - a gold substitute, and platinum/palladium - the other precious metals.

The floor for both #gold at $5000 & #silver at $80 are again being tested. A #liquidity crunch is building like it did before the 2008 crisis, which may add selling pressure to #PreciousMetals. I again expect support will hold but we'll find out this week. For now the silver chart stays as is - a "breather" marking a correction & not the end of the move. The longer #Hormuz remains closed, expect the #energy shock to inflict growing damage on the global #economy lasting weeks & possibly months if it doesn't open soon. As the risks grow, the likelihood of a #bank #crisis increases, which is what my #FearIndex has been warning for months. x.com/FGMR/status/20… But what monetary problem is causing the Fear Index to rise? Is the #petrodollar finished? Is the #MoneyBubble finally ready to pop? amazon.com/Money-Bubble-W… Or is the #derivative mountain going to collapse in a chaotic unwind, giving real meaning to #WarrenBuffett’s famous quote: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked". In this uncertain environment financial promises are already being met with increasing scepticism. The growing risk of #default or reneging by 'force majeure' is contributing to rising #bond #yields along with growing #inflation fears. Accept price #volatility across all markets as a consequence of war & focus on owning gold & silver for safety of your #PurchasingPower while praying/hoping for peace.

Valuable #oil situation analysis by @chigrl. Ignore the propaganda about releasing oil reserves to lower prices. Reuters graphic shows price rising after past releases. The supply crisis is real & doesn't end until 20mn barrels of oil are again flowing through #StraitOfHormuz.

Panic short covering causing yesterday's #oil spike to $120 has ended but don't ignore the more important message. Higher oil prices are on the way if the #StraitOfHormuz remains closed. Heed this Mar 6 prediction of Qatar's energy minister. Monitor Strait traffic: @MarineTraffic

In this 2011 video I interview Egon von Greyerz @GoldSwitzerland. Both of us have been long-time #gold advocates who for decades have been explaining the reasons to own physical gold, which over time with higher prices is becoming increasingly apparent. x.com/GoldSwitzerlan…

We can look back at Feb 15, 2024 & conclude it was a wake-up call. That day #gold hurdled $2000 & hasn't looked back. That day the post-WW2 monetary system broke, which was inevitable b/c the 1944 #BrettonWoodsConference abandoned gold. That led to fiat #currency which enables #money to be abused from #inflation & other monetary disorders. We are now witnessing the return to gold, which will likely accelerate in the weeks & months ahead. The 'breather' #gold & #silver are taking lasted another week. The floors at $5000 & $80 were tested and held, positive action meaning the #PreciousMetal uptrends & #GoldSilverRatio downtrend remain intact. We can therefore expect higher prices & probably soon given current events.

Here’s the pivot point for #Oil prices. A fifth of daily supply flows through the #StraitsOfHormuz. Not hard to imagine what could happen to oil prices if this waterway closes b/c of war choking available supply. #inflation

My #FearIndex ended February at 6.1%, the highest since Jan 1983 when #Volcker was saving the #dollar with sky-high #InterestRates to lower the 1970s double-digit #inflation. While this index has been rising for months, I used a “?” label b/c the fin’l crisis has not yet started or been named, unlike the 3 previous crises. Resist the temptation to put “war” as the label, even though there is plenty reason to be fearful. But war is not the reason the Fear Index is climbing. Note both World Wars had no impact. This chart starts at 1913 purposefully, the year the #FederalReserve was created. It is responsible for directly causing or failing to prevent the crises on this chart. #EndTheFed & eliminate all #LegalTender laws to allow currencies to compete, enabling the return to money of the #American #Constitution, #gold & #silver coin circulating digitally or hand-to-hand - or whatever else the buyer & seller agree, not what the federal gov't forces us to use.

Could it be that #silver was just taking a breather the last 4 weeks, like it did on the way up in 1979? Is the rest of its moonshot ready to unfold? If silver exceeds $100 this week, it’s a good possibility that leg-2 of silver’s moonshot is beginning b/c it looks like we are in a #SilverSqueeze with not enough metal for all those short. See: goldmoney.com/research/blue-… Last week: #gold +3.4% #silver 12.6% Ratio now at 56 needs to keep falling as gold chugs higher, e.g., $5400 / 40 ratio = $135 silver, nearing my $148 moonshot target.

Even the mainstream financial media is beginning to recognize that $5000 may be gold’s new floor. The smart money has already been buying/accumulating. Headlines like this will lead retail & latecomers to get #gold #silver & #miners too into their portfolios. The #PreciousMetal bull market is building. My valuation calculations show both gold & silver remain undervalued. So b/c the metals are undervalued, the miners are too. Their bull market still has a long way to climb. x.com/FGMR/status/20…

Not only do I support/endorse #Goldmoney, I’m also a customer, and my family is one of its largest shareholders. I retired over 10 years ago, so I’m no longer involved in the day-to-day mgmt. But I've remained on the board & am the company’s Lead Director.

Good to see #JamieDimon publicly acknowledging what my #FearIndex has been telling us for months. x.com/FGMR/status/20… There are ominous parallels to those that led to the 2008 #GFC. When banks do “dumb things”, financial crises follow. Relative weakness of #NasdaqBankIndex is telling; down -13% from Jan’22 high. Own physical #gold #silver for safety. To protect #Capital & #PurchasingPower, own tangible assets and/or shares of companies owning tangible assets, like #PreciousMetal #miners. Avoid promises.

Last week #silver +9.3% #gold +1.3%. Ratio=60. Moonshot not over, but key week ahead with China coming back online. Need $5000 gold floor to hold. Silver floor (now $80) must keep rising, putting their ratio below 60 again. Same 2026 targets: $5833, $195 & 30:1 ratio. x.com/FGMR/status/20… Near term moonshot target for silver is $148. x.com/FGMR/status/20… It’s a #PreciousMetals bull market for physical metal & #miners.

Legacy media #propaganda. Says "#inflation is down" but items are up 22% to 59% from 2020. Inflation is gov’t theft of your most precious asset: your time on earth earning #PurchasingPower to buy your needs/wants. Accumulate physical #gold #silver to #save PP, not fiat currency.