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Wrote a brief substack article explaining how my NBA draft model functions
link - open.substack.com/pub/fplmou/p/n…
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FPL_Mou
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New on the site: every D-I player projection is now a full Bayesian posterior. On the preseason rankings and roster builder, you can drag each player's BPM within their 95% CI and watch team AdjEM recompute live.
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Wrote a brief substack article explaining how my NBA draft model functions
link - open.substack.com/pub/fplmou/p/n…
English
FPL_Mou retweetledi
@bballstrategy It's log scale. To translate stats from a league to another, the factor is exp(difference between the leagues)
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@FPL_Mou What is the scale of the data/ proper way to read / use it?
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@FPL_Mou At this point there are many cases where your model and I are not close but I should review everything again (and again and again probably).
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@bballstrategy And a mean projection of +1 is rather high for my model. Only flagg and boozer have cleared it. While zion has the highest mvp probability observed so for
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@bballstrategy The predicted means are probably compressed because it's a stats only forecast. If I factor in consensus draft rankings the predicted means would probably be more in line with something passing the smell test.
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@bballstrategy While only boozer gets a +1 projection as a mean, ~11 prospects from the class are expected to reach that threshold in line with past years (~10 prospects every season clear that bar)
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Model validation metrics and results are here
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
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@bballstrategy I'd personally go pure model because my eye test/understanding of basketball isn't good enough to make subjective adjustments
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@FPL_Mou Do you believe / practice going with pure model or using it as base with subjective adjustments?
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@NBACouchside Even without some guys in that range the draft is rather deep
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Bad news for teams (like the Bulls) with a pick in the 12-20 range. Even if you didn't like him for your team, it weakens the class in that part of the draft.
Brett Siegel@BrettSiegelNBA
Mullins, who was projected to go in the 12-20 range of this year’s draft, is heading back to UConn.
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G-RAPM now includes ucl data. Here is xG-RAPM as well. Improved my model so keeper ratings look better in the xG one. Can keep fiddling with it but ultimately going to add a prior next time
g-RAPM is last 15 years i think.
xG-RAPM is 2014/15–2025/26
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
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@pmmbasketball Butler isn't a high 3pr guy
But he maxes out FTr and TO margins
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The most useful modern day wings
- pg13 elite wing defense, super high 3pr
- Tatum high 3pr, all around very good
- kawhi good wing defense, efficient from everywhere
- kd historical efficiency play finisher.
All these guys also still struggle to be the driver themselves
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his bottleneck is playmaking but
-don’t see him being the driver of a top 10 offense
- the rare non guards who drive good offenses thru playmaking are lebron and jokic
- inefficient ,low 3pr , is a mid defender, avg defender at best
Ur essentially asking him him to reincarnate
Paolos Attorney@PaolosAttorney
Paolo getting hate for his current play is 100% deserved but to put a cap on what he can and will be in the future and to say he can’t lead a team when we haven’t even seen him under a different coach is so idiotic
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@outletpassing Quite likely I'm in the wrong here.
Model had risacher and salaun relatively high in the 24 list.
Tall wings with shooting potential seem to get high ceiling outcomes
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@FPL_Mou Makes sense I suppose. Not a huge Ament fan but I hadn't considered the positional similarity to Markovic, who I really liked last cycle. Gives me something to think about, so thanks!
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