Nikolas Gvosdev

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Nikolas Gvosdev

Nikolas Gvosdev

@FPRI_Orbis

Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions.

Katılım Eylül 2021
589 Takip Edilen8.8K Takipçiler
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Jack Prandelli
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli·
🚨 Putin just gave a clear order to Russian oil giants “Use the extra revenues from rising prices to pay down debt.” • Russian oil & gas firms are getting a windfall from the Iran war • Putin is telling them to clean up balance sheets and support domestic banks The same oil spike hitting consumers globally is repairing Russia’s balance sheet at home This isn’t just an oil rally. 👉 It’s a geopolitical wealth transfer From oil importers → to oil exporters like Russia
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Brandon Weichert
Brandon Weichert@WeTheBrandon·
Chaos at sea hurts the U.S. alliance system. Allies depend on oil shipping. War makes sea lanes dangerous → demand shifts to land routes → China dominates Eurasia. That’s the Belt & Road endgame.
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Foreign Policy Research Institute
Foreign Policy Research Institute@FPRI·
Stephen Blank explains how amidst US operations in Venezuela and Iran, many observers dismiss Russian power projection. However, he writes that "it would be premature to proclaim that these defeats point to a lasting diminution of Russian power and standing abroad." buff.ly/dhmmvWd
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Nikolas Gvosdev
Nikolas Gvosdev@FPRI_Orbis·
This connects directly to the #trilemma discussion (and #doorstep implications) with @BillBartholomew … btown.buzzsprout.com/163601/episode…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

BREAKING: The nitrogen trap just closed. Three locks snapped shut simultaneously. The planting window is closing behind them. And the food the world eats next year is now being decided by molecules that cannot reach the soil in time. Lock one: the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC permissioned corridor allows oil tankers from friendly nations to pay $2 million in yuan and pass. It does not allow fertiliser vessels to pass at any price. Zero approved fertiliser transits in 24 days. The Gulf supplies 49 percent of the world’s exported urea and roughly 30 percent of traded ammonia. That supply is not delayed. It is denied. The gate opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. It stays closed for molecules that feed the planet. Lock two: Russia. The world’s largest exporter of ammonium nitrate just halted all AN exports until after April 21. Three to four million tonnes per year, gone from global markets at the exact moment the Northern Hemisphere needs it most. The official reason is “domestic priority.” The strategic effect is leverage. Russia earns windfall revenue from the oil price spike its ally’s war created, then removes the fertiliser that farmers need to plant through the crisis. The disease and the cure, again, from the same address. Lock three: China. Beijing has banned exports of nitrogen-potassium blends and phosphate fertilisers through August 2026. China is the world’s largest phosphate producer and a major nitrogen supplier. The ban removes the last alternative source that could have compensated for Hormuz and Russia. Three locks. Three countries. Three deliberate decisions timed to the same biological calendar. The biological calendar does not negotiate. Corn requires nitrogen at the V6 to VT growth stage or kernel set is permanently reduced. Wheat requires it at tillering and jointing or grain fill collapses. Rice requires it at transplanting or yield drops 20 to 40 percent in low-input systems. These are not economic models. They are cellular processes. The plant either receives nitrogen during the window or it does not. If it does not, no subsequent application, no price increase, no policy reversal can recover what was lost. The damage is written into the biology of the seed. The US Corn Belt window closes mid-April. European top-dressing is happening now. Indian Kharif preparation begins in May. Bangladeshi Boro rice transplanting is underway this week. Every one of these windows is closing while the three largest sources of nitrogen on Earth are simultaneously locked: Hormuz by military blockade, Russia by export decree, China by trade ban. The USDA Prospective Plantings report arrives March 31. The FAO Food Price Index publishes April 3. These will quantify what the molecules already know: the nitrogen did not arrive. The yield loss is locked in. The 5 to 10 percent global drag will concentrate where the buffers are thinnest: subsistence farms in Bangladesh, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, where a 20 percent shortfall does not mean lower profits. It means hunger. Sri Lanka banned synthetic fertiliser in 2021. Rice yields collapsed 40 percent. The government fell. In 2008, fertiliser and oil spiked simultaneously and food riots erupted across 30 countries. In 2026, the strait blocks fertiliser while Russia and China withdraw the alternatives, and the planting windows close on a planet with nowhere else to turn. The war is fought with missiles. The famine is fought with molecules. The molecules are trapped behind three locks on three continents, timed to the one calendar that cannot be paused, extended, or negotiated: the calendar written into the DNA of every seed in the soil. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Foreign Policy Research Institute
Foreign Policy Research Institute@FPRI·
Suzanne Loftus tells readers that while commentary on the Iran war focuses on benefits for Russia, it often overlooks the "renewed US willingness to use coercive tactics to reshape the geopolitical landscape by weakening adversarial coalitions." Read more in her piece for National Interest. buff.ly/udCRBmR
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Nikolas Gvosdev
Nikolas Gvosdev@FPRI_Orbis·
So again a complete reversal of the trend we saw in fall 2021.
MarineTraffic@MarineTraffic

Europe-bound LNG cargoes divert to Asia amid Middle East supply disruption Around 11 LNG tankers originally bound for Europe have diverted to Asia since 3 March, according to market data, as buyers respond to tightening supply and rising spot prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and outages at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex. The latest diversion involves the LNG carrier La Seine, which altered course from Montoir to Asia on 19 March after loading in the United States. Other vessels, including BW Brussels and LNG Cross River, are now heading toward Dahej, India, while additional cargoes are signalling destinations in Taiwan and East Asia. ▶️ Watch the #MarineTraffic playback with the LNG vessel movements.

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Foreign Policy Research Institute
Foreign Policy Research Institute@FPRI·
FPRI gathered five experts to provide insights into the effects of the US and Israel's war against Iran. The consensus is clear: Russia is benefitting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the European Union will face second-order effects, and if escalation persists, so will damage to energy markets. buff.ly/J5szGd8
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Sergio Parra
Sergio Parra@SergioParra_·
Los villanos siempre tienen doctorado. Dr. Doom, el Dr. Octopus, el Dr. Doofenshmirtz, Hannibal Lecter o el Dr. No. Incluso el Dr. Frankenstein o el Dr. Evil. En cambio, los buenos suelen quedarse en la maestría, como el maestro Yoda, el Maestro Roshi, el Maestro Splinter, el Maestro Miyagi, Shifu o el mismísimo Luke Skywalker. Los estudios de posgrado corrompen el alma.
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