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My conversation with @1796farewell Paul Saunders for the @CFTNI #ThreeQuestions podcast: nationalinterest.org/feature/strate…
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Nikolas Gvosdev
18.1K posts
Nikolas Gvosdev
@FPRI_Orbis
Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions.
Katılım Eylül 2021
596 Takip Edilen8.8K Takipçiler
Foreign Policy Research Institute@FPRI
"Right after I conducted a big investigation into Chinese breaches, highlighting the extensiveness of it, I coined this phrase that there are two types of companies: those that know that they've been hacked and those that don't yet know" (8:54). Listen to the full conversation with @DAlperovitch on #ShiftingGround, an #OrbisJournal podcast. @NunnSchoolGT buff.ly/NMmNXwu
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Nikolas Gvosdev retweetledi
Washington told allies it will gradually scale down the number of strategic bombers, fighter jets, drones, submarines and warships dedicated to NATO as it continues pressing Europe to do more for its own defense. politico.eu/article/us-to-…
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Yet Ukraine’s #NATO path is totally stuck in the 2023 #Vilnius formula and NATO members cannot agree on collective increases in military aid …
Brian Kilmeade@kilmeade
It happened. NATO should be begging Ukriane to join not other way around!! foxnews.com/world/ukraines…
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And just as we saw last year the administration will issue a signing statement treating such provisions as recommendations … as previous presidents have also done, citing Article II justifications.
Mark Satter@marksatter
NEW: The just-released House NDAA would extend, and build upon, prohibitions on moving U.S. troops from Europe and Korea. It would extend for another year - 76,000 U.S. troop floor in Europe - Prohibition on removing more than $500k mil tech from Europe - Prohibition on giving up SACEUR - 28,500 troop floor in Korea
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the intersection of international and domestic factors guiding when Israel undertakes the fight and when it seeks to pull back, in part driven by the unwillingness to go fully into a war-mobilization mode. 2/
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The template for understanding the dynamics of Russia's war in Ukraine may be to consider Israel's fight with Hamas and Hezbollah as a 20-year conflict starting with the 2006 Lebanon and Gaza operations ... cycles of fighting punctuated by cessations and also driven by ... 1/
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More from @FPRI here: x.com/FPRI/status/20…
Foreign Policy Research Institute@FPRI
Check out the latest #BearMarketBrief to read about the lack of a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, three days of nuclear test drills, detainments of regional leaders, and measures supporting Ukraine war participants. buff.ly/NH19HUS
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Looks like China slow-rolled on Power of Siberia 2 in order to see how #Hormuz plays out. #POTUS announcement this Saturday plus China's "understanding" with Iran may give Beijing some leverage against Russian expectations. linkedin.com/posts/southsho…
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that other European governments were happy to let Orban take the flack for slow-rolling European initiatives--and this hid an enthusiasm gap on the part of others. 2/
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The argument that with Orban's departure European unity on Ukraine would be restored has, so far, not been borne out by recent events. Unwillingness to support modest NATO defense spending increases for Ukraine and the consolation prize of "associate" EU membership suggest ... 1/
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Nikolas Gvosdev retweetledi
Check out the latest #BearMarketBrief to read about the lack of a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, three days of nuclear test drills, detainments of regional leaders, and measures supporting Ukraine war participants. buff.ly/NH19HUS
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By my read, Russia and the West are now somewhere around rungs 7 to 9 of Kahn's Ladder of Escalation.
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Our #OrbisJournal #ShiftingGround podcasts (co-host @lprubin73) with Stacy Dixon, Admiral Winnefeld, @dbyman , @DAlperovitch and @reziemba . all fill out different pieces of the current #geotechnology puzzle ... linkedin.com/posts/nikolas-…
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In @TheNatlInterest the possible "death of Eurasia" amidst #GeoConnectivity challenges ... geo-connectivity rests on a network of #keystone states that can keep interconnections open and functional. nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-road…
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The race to quadruple U.S. nuclear power generation is on ... @TheNatlInterest ... nationalinterest.org/blog/energy-wo…
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New efforts on the part of authorities in Bishkek to close the #Kyrgyzstan sanctions #roundabout ... linkedin.com/posts/nikolas-…
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It is difficult to meld a Wall Street #NPH (no profit here) mindset with a #natsec focus on getting critical minerals sourced to deal with the backlog in defense production.
linkedin.com/posts/nikolas-…
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Key takeaway from @DAlperovitch ... especially to get #natsec professionals thinking about cyber as an "enabling capability" ... #OrbisJournal
Foreign Policy Research Institute@FPRI
On the latest episode of #ShiftingGround, Dmitri Alperovitch tells us that "cyber doesn't actually create deterrence—cyber is not a weapons system, it's an enabling capability" (34:55). #OrbisJournal buff.ly/vHfK7Kf
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My takeaway: Western condemnation of Russian actions is, and I'm extrapolating here, background noise that doesn't really change the situation on the ground if it doesn't lead to fundamentally changes in what the West is willing to do. linkedin.com/posts/southsho…
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Supply chains do not spring up overnight; they require nurturing. We had plenty of warnings in the 2010s about the risks but we didn't want to pay ... and the crises of the 2020s (covid, China, etc.) have come upon us before alternatives can be ready. linkedin.com/posts/nikolas-…
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Point 2 is key for casual observers who peruse the daily "maps" and want to see World War II-style massed movements of infantry and armor--drones and small squads don't have the same impact--but this is how the war is being fought. linkedin.com/posts/southsho…
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