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Scott Barrett's Top-50 Post-Draft Rookie Rankings
Everything you need to know about this year's rookie class in a 3-minute read (<2,500 words)
fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2…
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Scott Barrett
74.8K posts
Scott Barrett
@ScottBarrettDFB
Fantasy Football, School of Scott podcast, CEO of @FantasyPts & @FantasyPtsData
Free Premium Stats & Tools → Katılım Aralık 2013
790 Takip Edilen112.7K Takipçiler
@DhananiZain @FantasyPtsData Or, is Shough just the white Jalen Hurts
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Some fun Pass TD upside for the Saints in 2026..
Pass Rate over Expected (PROE) inside the 10:
1) Vikings: 14.9%
2) Rams: 11.1%
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31) Commanders: -13.6%
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32) SAINTS w/ Shough: -29.7%
Identifying significant outliers/regression can help win in fantasy
@FantasyPtsData
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Scott Barrett retweetledi
Most YPC when first contact is initiated beyond the line of scrimmage [last 3 years]
+ @FantasyPtsData
1. De'Von Achane (8.66)
2. Jahmyr Gibbs (7.92)
3. Saquon Barkley (7.65)
4. Derrick Henry (7.58)
5. Breece Hall (7.27)
TreVeyon Henderson last year = 7.69 YPC 👀
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@maxtoscano1 Respectfully, Tyreek was different man
Scott Barrett@ScottBarrettDFB
Tyreek Hill = best WR of my generation Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Alex Smith all averaged >58.5 passing YPG with Tyreek Hill (would have ranked top-3 among all offenses last year). Without, they dropped to bottom-12 This is the @cheetah effect
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Me & JD6 are good! We spoke earlier as Men. Yall can keep yall narratives.
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@FantasyKash Yeah, Burrow is prob No. 1 among DCs. They all talk about him like this
x.com/MySportsUpdate…
Ari Meirov@MySportsUpdate
#Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo to Bengals QB Joe Burrow after last year's game: "Other than our guy, you are the best in the business." (via 'Quarterback' on Netflix)
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Burrow is clearest example that film hipsters (Solak, Tice, Kimes etc.) imo overvalue physical traits and underrate mental ones
In their pods Solak/Kimes had him distinctly below top-3 and he went 5th on 301
Meanwhile he’s top-3 every year in Fowler/Sando league exec polls
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Did Ben Johnson's slot WR get 1,000 yards or finish top-15 among all WRs in receptions?
2012: Brian Hartline -✅
2013: Brian Hartline - ✅
2014: Jarvis Landry - ✅
2016: Jarvis Landry - ✅
2017: Jarvis Landry - ✅
2018: Danny Amendola - ❌(33yo)
2019: Danny Amendola - ❌(34yo)
2020: Danny Amendola - ❌(35yo)
2021: Amon-Ra St. Brown - ✅
2022: Amon-Ra St. Brown - ✅
2023: Amon-Ra St. Brown - ✅
2024: Amon-Ra St. Brown - ✅
2025: Luther Burden - ❌ (was on pace for 1,377 yards post-breakout)
2026: Luther Burden - 😈
Scott Barrett@ScottBarrettDFB
Note to self: draft tf out of Ben Johnson's slot WR in two years when he's coaching the Texans
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@DhananiZain @FantasyPtsData Kyren Williams Red Zone Stats
+ @FantasyPtsData
2025: 6.2 FPG (RB6) / 5.3 XFP/G (RB5)
2024: 7.9 FPG (RB1) / 6.4 XFP/G (RB1)
2023: 9.4 FPG (RB1) / 8.0 XFP/G (RB1)
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Rams decided to go pass heavy i20 in 2025 - here is their PROE i20 the past few seasons:
2025: +9.1% (1st by a lot)
2024: -7.7% (27th)
2023: -2.4% (13th)
It certainly felt like a deliberate MVP push for Stafford and it likely won’t be THAT aggressive again
@FantasyPtsData
Pat Thorman@Pat_Thorman
Matthew Stafford had a 7.7% TD rate last year (2nd highest in NFL over the last 5 years) TD% was 4.6% before 2025 His TD% spiked over 6% three prior times and fell the following year by an average of 2.8% Prior TD% with LAR were 3.3%, 4.6%, and 3.9% Also just turned 38, fwiw
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@Keeegs2 That's a Ben Johnson stat imo. CTCH% and P2S are the QB stats divorced from playcaller. I think ~25 QBs would have matched or exceeded those numbers (EPA/DB, ANYA, raw totals) in the same environment
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@ScottBarrettDFB The stats disagree with this.
His EPA/play if you take out the penal of penalties and failed sneaks has him about 12th he was 11th in A/ANY, 6th in yards 7th in TDs… he is not below average
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My honest-to-goodness evaluation of Caleb Williams:
He improved dramatically YoY and made the playoffs last year. But objectively, he hasn't played the position at a high level. I'd say he's been well below-average in both years.
He can make insane "wow" throws only a few other QBs can make. That's really cool! But it's also massively overrated. These are rare events that matter significantly less than being a consistently accurate passer who avoids negative plays. Highlight reel throws stick in the back of the mind of the average fan, who weights them too heavily as if one sick throw is the same as making 99/100 easy completions or cancels out 3 turnover-worthy throws plus 6 sacks. It doesn't. Not even close.
From a real NFL standpoint, I do think he's overrated and that his PR has been much better than he's deserved. But I still really like him from a fantasy perspective. Chicago's supporting cast (including Ben Johnson calling the plays) almost feels like an impossible-to-fail setup, or even an impossible-not-to-be-great situation.
Caleb Williams finished as the QB8 last year (19.2 FPG) despite ranking bottom-5 in every QB accuracy stat imaginable. What happens if he's closer to average this year? Or what if he's actually really good?
Scott Barrett@ScottBarrettDFB
Most to Least Accurate QBs by Catchable Throw Rate [2024-2025] + @FantasyPtsData
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@audavidb @FantasyPtsData No dude, Denver’s elite defense led them there. You could have replaced Nix with 23 other guys and got better results
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@ScottBarrettDFB @FantasyPtsData Nix sucked ass 😂 yes sucked so bad led a team with a bottom 5 wr core a bottom 5 te core and a bottom 5 run game to the 1 seed. Literally the most valuable player in the nfl last year.
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@audavidb @FantasyPtsData Lamar is an elite QB but accuracy has never been one of his superpowers.
Nix sucked ass last year.
And Mahomes has really glaringly struggled with downfield accuracy since losing Tyreek
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@ScottBarrettDFB @FantasyPtsData You know a stat is meaningless when the bucket contains Rattler, Rush, Levis as well as Nix, Mahomes, Lamar
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@ScottBarrettDFB @FantasyPtsData The chart was rendered meaningless as soon as I saw the QB in second place
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@ScottBarrettDFB @FantasyPtsData @DhananiZain @ScottBarrettDFB can you link to your old post about draft success between WR/rb/qb
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It's easy to see why Davante Adams scored so many touchdowns when you check out his red zone ASS
Jared Smola@SmolaDS
Will Davante Adams average 1 TD per game again this season? Probably not. Will his TD production crater? Probably not. Adams last year ... ✅ 5 more red-zone targets THAN ANY OTHER WR ✅ 12 more end-zone targets THAN ANY OTHER WR ✅ 5.7 more expected TDs THAN ANY OTHER WR
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@DMayer334 @jmthrivept don't want to tweet about our press data until we get it in the data suite
but tldr - Smith can be a WR1 and a great fantasy pick, but the low BMI does show up on tape and in the stats
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@jmthrivept Did @ScottBarrettDFB delete his reply? If so it's a shame because this thread felt like fantasy Twitter circa 2014/15.
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The year is 2026 and Devonta Smith is entering year six.
We’re still doing the BMI stuff?
Dustin Scott Royer 🎦@All22_FF
For the record in Dynasty give me Makai Lemon or preferably Eli Stowers if in going to invest in a PHI skill player for the future. I don't think people will realize that the physical limitations for Smith will hold him back from getting to the volume people are projecting. He's got teeny tiny bird bones.
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@RonJAdams @DrJesseMorse Is Zach Wilson a better runner than Cam Newton? Because his YPC is higher.
That's basically the same argument you're making
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@ScottBarrettDFB @DrJesseMorse Ok that's fair to say. I get that. But that's also a guess. You're like he was only good bc they weren't expecting it. A factor but not all of it.
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Love the talent for Makai Lemon (he was my WR1) but HATE the landing spot (really the QB)
Jalen Hurts really struggles with throws over the middle. He was the worst QB over the past 2 years at it.
The problem is, this is where Makai Lemon SHINES.
My guess is AJ Brown is traded (Patriots?), DeVonta Smith takes over as the WR1, and Lemon evolves into the WR2.
Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown round out the WRs.
Dataroma@ffdataroma
Jalen Hurts' rate of throws over the middle of the field, per @FantasyPtsData: + 2024: 13.3% (dead last of 39 QBs) + 2025: 16.3% (35th of 36 QBs) And on attempts less than 10 yards downfield over the MOF (where Lemon thrives): + 2024: 6.1% (38th/39) + 2025: 6.6% (32nd/36)
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@RonJAdams @DrJesseMorse The efficiency was solid because defenses weren't expecting it when he did throw there, but that matters much less than the ATT%
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@DrJesseMorse @ScottBarrettDFB Ok so again this seems like again a percent attempt over the middle and bottom production over the middle. My question was is he the worst at it or just the lowest at attempting it? And four diff play callers yes, but same offense.
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@DrJesseMorse @RonJAdams This is entirely a Jalen Hurts issue, as it was a major issue through four different play-callers, and was also a major issue for him in college as well
x.com/ScottBarrettDF…
Scott Barrett@ScottBarrettDFB
Lowest % of Balls Thrown to Middle of Field [Since 2021] + @FantasyPtsData / @fball_insights 1. Jalen Hurts, ‘21 (9.3%)* 2. Michael Penix, ‘25 (10.9%) 3. Jalen Hurts, ‘23 (11.7%)** 4. Jalen Hurts, ‘24 (13.3%)*** * OC Shane Steichen ** OC Brian Johnson *** OC Kellen Moore
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