FatTailMacro

$TLT Weekly Dashboard — Issue #1 is live. One week since the thesis. Here's what moved: ▸ SCOTUS struck down reciprocal tariffs ▸ 10Y yield at 4.04% — 3-month low ▸ Mortgage rates below 6% for first time since 2022 ▸ Short interest down 14.4% from record Squeeze stage: COMPRESSION. Full dashboard + my take ↓ fattailmacro.com

Long-term #Treasuries are the most crowded short in the market right now. 📢128.8 million shares of $TLT sold short. 24% of the float. Ten times the level from 2023. Every macro strategist, every hedge fund, every talking head says the same thing: rates stay higher for longer. 🐂They might be right. But the market isn't paying you to agree with consensus. Here's what I'm watching: The #FOMC just held rates at 3.50-3.75% with a 10-2 vote. Two governors — #Waller and #Miran — dissented and wanted to cut. That's not noise. That's internal pressure building before #Warsh even takes the chair. ✂️The minutes called tariff inflation "one-time effects that will fade by mid-2026." That's the #Fed pre-writing its permission slip to cut anyway. I see three paths to $TLT $112 by November: 💼 Path 1: Jobs collapse. Emergency cuts. Yields crater. 📉Path 2: Disinflation sticks. Tariff fears evaporate. Fed eases into weakness. 🤝Path 3: #Bessent and #Warsh coordinate. eSLR reform April 1. Bill-shift operations. Engineered lower yields. Any one of these gets us there. Two happening together creates an overshoot.🏀 The squeeze mechanics are simple: $93-95 triggers technicals and short covering. $95-105 detonates the basis trade — over $1 trillion in notional at risk. $105-115 is full capitulation. Everyone just read the #FOMC minutes and concluded rates stay high forever. That's exactly the setup I want to launch into.🚀 Weekly dashboard tracking this in real time. Follow along.

Long-term #Treasuries are the most crowded short in the market right now. 📢128.8 million shares of $TLT sold short. 24% of the float. Ten times the level from 2023. Every macro strategist, every hedge fund, every talking head says the same thing: rates stay higher for longer. 🐂They might be right. But the market isn't paying you to agree with consensus. Here's what I'm watching: The #FOMC just held rates at 3.50-3.75% with a 10-2 vote. Two governors — #Waller and #Miran — dissented and wanted to cut. That's not noise. That's internal pressure building before #Warsh even takes the chair. ✂️The minutes called tariff inflation "one-time effects that will fade by mid-2026." That's the #Fed pre-writing its permission slip to cut anyway. I see three paths to $TLT $112 by November: 💼 Path 1: Jobs collapse. Emergency cuts. Yields crater. 📉Path 2: Disinflation sticks. Tariff fears evaporate. Fed eases into weakness. 🤝Path 3: #Bessent and #Warsh coordinate. eSLR reform April 1. Bill-shift operations. Engineered lower yields. Any one of these gets us there. Two happening together creates an overshoot.🏀 The squeeze mechanics are simple: $93-95 triggers technicals and short covering. $95-105 detonates the basis trade — over $1 trillion in notional at risk. $105-115 is full capitulation. Everyone just read the #FOMC minutes and concluded rates stay high forever. That's exactly the setup I want to launch into.🚀 Weekly dashboard tracking this in real time. Follow along.