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Smart Investing

@Fedja99999

Katılım Ocak 2024
125 Takip Edilen69 Takipçiler
Smart Investing
Smart Investing@Fedja99999·
@StockResearchWk @derminvests And this is why the stock is down. The shorts scared everyone. There's no buying pressure. This will change with time as fundamentals improve. Patience is key here, but I understand everyone who's pissed about the situation. This will be a longer than anticipated story.
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MS@derminvests·
$fubo. Bought more at the 52 week low lol. I think I have a problem. Yo be fair I’m also buying other stuff
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Smart Investing
Smart Investing@Fedja99999·
@80percentvegan @DV_investor The company is fine, its in the best place its ever been, not as good as promised, but still keeps going in the right direction, its the stock (faith in the company) that's broken. We'll see how the story ends.
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Daniel Végh
Daniel Végh@DV_investor·
$FUBO Wyckoff is still in play. Wish us good luck!
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Smart Investing
Smart Investing@Fedja99999·
@paulcerro @optionscjp If you see a photo of a deer, but there's a footnote that says otherwise, are you going to say that there is no deer in the photo ? $HIMS
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Paul Cerro
Paul Cerro@paulcerro·
@optionscjp It's literally not a partnership.... Was the only footnote in that PR that apparently no one bothered to read when it came out
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Travis Hoium
Travis Hoium@TravisHoium·
$HIMS Novo made a deal with Hims last month and, in a move that should surprise no one who follows me, Lilly was next. Zepbound and Foundayo now on Hims. I’m curious about the economics, but from a platform perspective this is a huge win.
Travis Hoium tweet mediaTravis Hoium tweet media
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Smart Investing
Smart Investing@Fedja99999·
@paulcerro @TravisHoium No, you be better. Go read definitions of partnership. You're a smart guy. Come on ..They're working together .. it's a partnership .. I don't care about the legal details of it. In reality, they are working together, which is bullish because it support the platform thesis. $HIMS
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Paul Cerro
Paul Cerro@paulcerro·
It's literally not a partnership. That's why the company even said it's not a partnership.... Literally any licensed provider in America could do what they just did. $HIMS could have done it this entire time but didn't because they were still compounding and making way more money doing that. Come on dude. Be better.
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Smart Investing
Smart Investing@Fedja99999·
@OddityOddballs Yeah, but NFLX didn't do their own thing in the beginning either. That's the point of the $HIMS thesis. Build the platform, once it's big enough, start selling your own medicine. I'm long both $ODD and HIMS, they can coexist. There's enough pie for both companies.
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Smart Investing
Smart Investing@Fedja99999·
@paulcerro @TravisHoium It is a huge win for the platform thesis. This will pay dividends in the long run, no matter how bad the margins are right now. And it's a partnership, even if it says otherwise, they are working together, so it's a form of partnership. I would cover my short if I were you.
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Paul Cerro
Paul Cerro@paulcerro·
Travis, this was not a partnership. It literally says that in the footnote of the PR that you took a screenshot of. It also isn't anything new. ANY provider in the United States can use LillyDirect to send a medication to. $HIMS chose not to do this because they were making so much money on compounded that it didn't make sense for them to pay so much CAC for a weight loss sub only to send them to a branded option with no margin and sell them a service subscription. Having no partnership means not having an in-flow experience directly to LillyDirect. This means that the customer has to leave in order to complete their script. This leads to lower conversion which is a factor to why Andrew opted to not do this because he couldn't get a deal. $LLY cut its partnership with Noom last year after they were microdosing Tirzepatide and have not come back since. The likelihood of them coming back to $HIMS is still very low (but not 0) if they haven't even bothered with Noom. Which brings me to my next point. There's no margin in this aside from the service revenue. This is not a "huge win" cc: @CCM_Brett @CCM_Ryan
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Smart Investing
Smart Investing@Fedja99999·
@YodaStockInvest @mindzeyeshine but if you don't sell, how does that affect you ? if the fundamentals are good, it will eventually reflect in the stock price, whether it's a traditional market or a 24/7 one
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YodaStocks
YodaStocks@YodaStockInvest·
I’m the biggest OPPOSER of a 24/7 stock market. Convince me why that shit is good?
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Smart Investing
Smart Investing@Fedja99999·
@paulcerro @Investinc_Intel It's to be expected. You were bearish (and mostly right) on a company that now seems to have a bright future. People will make fun of you. It's part of the game. But I was wondering, are you still bearish on HIMS ? And if you don't mind, did you completly cover your short ?
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Fundamental Investing
Fundamental Investing@Investinc_Intel·
I sold my entire $HIMS position… After a lot of thought I just decided that @paulcerro was right
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Alpha Oracle
Alpha Oracle@therogueoracle·
@NighthawkTradez in the midst of the AI revolution, who really cares about a telehealth platform?
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NightHawk Capital
NightHawk Capital@NighthawkTradez·
Me shoving $HIMS down your throat
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Brett
Brett@CCM_Brett·
$HIMS is acting recklessly and its stock has a decently high chance of going to zero
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Smart Investing
Smart Investing@Fedja99999·
@Ron_Trades The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. This has been proven by many studies. Look at $HIMS revenue behavior (even before GLP) and look at their valuation. Do what you want with your own money, but I would never invest in NVO over HIMS. Not at these prices.
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Ron Ron
Ron Ron@Ron_Trades·
@Fedja99999 Why would people buy their weight loss injections over oral pills?
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Ron Ron
Ron Ron@Ron_Trades·
Is $NVO an asymmetric opportunity here? I feel like markets forgot about their pill launch, pipeline and cash pile for acquisitions.
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Smart Investing retweetledi
Hims House
Hims House@himshouse·
$HIMS REVENUE GREW MORE THAN +30% IN 2025 HERS REVENUE GREW MORE THAN 100% IN 2025 🤯🤯🤯 HERS WILL HIT $1 BILLION IN 2026
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Mike
Mike@MikeLongTerm·
$HIMS| Adjustment on Growth toward 2030🧵 Not Financial Advice! FY2025: Revenue: $2.35B or 58% YoY (weightloss $740), Core $1.61B FY2026: Revenue $3.2B(36%) where weightloss may be down by 10-15% or flat. FY2027: Revenue $4.16B(30%) FY2028: Revenue: $5.2B(25%) FY2029 Revenue: $6.5B(25%) FY2030 Revenue: $8.12B(25%) I expect management to ramp up buyback from FCF generation while company is trading at under 2x P/S @AndrewDudum. The discontinuation of Hims & Hers' compounded oral semaglutide pill in early February 2026(after 2 days), prompted by FDA regulatory actions and legal pressures from Novo Nordisk, introduces near-term challenges to the weight loss segment but does not derail the company's broader growth trajectory, as it pivots aggressively toward diversification and high-potential expansions The weight loss category bolstered by liraglutide injectables, generic semaglutide in Canada, and non-GLP-1 personalized kits retains strong momentum, contributing approximately 31% of total revenue in 2025 and projected to grow at 15-20% annually through 2030, down from prior 60%+ rates but still adding $150-250 million yearly through cross-selling and retention. Offsetting this moderation are ambitious new expansions: international markets, now accounting for an initial 5-10% of revenue but scaling to 20% by 2030 via Canada entry (projected 10% growth contribution in 2026 from generic semaglutide and Livewell acquisition) and Europe/UK via Zava (adding 8-12% incremental growth through telehealth in Germany, France, and Ireland); diagnostics and labs, launched in late 2025 with Quest Diagnostics partnership and YourBio Health's pain-free blood sampling tech, offering 50-120 biomarker tests across heart, metabolism, hormones, inflammation, and stress, expected to generate 12-18% of total revenue by 2027 and ramp to a standalone $1 billion segment by 2030. Preventive care and longevity initiatives, set for full 2026 rollout including peptide manufacturing (via acquired U.S. facility, contributing 10-15% to growth through vertical integration and supply control), coenzymes, GLP/GIP blends for performance and recovery, and a $325 million Grail investment enabling multi-cancer early detection blood tests (projected to add 8-12% revenue uplift starting in 2026 by enhancing subscription retention); and hormone health expansions like menopause/perimenopause and low testosterone treatments, already driving 10% of 2025 growth and poised for 20-25% annual expansion through data-driven personalization. Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) blood testing via the Galleri® test from GRAIL in the prior breakdown, even though it was bundled under longevity/preventive care. This is a significant new offering launched on February 4, 2026, providing subscribers (via the Labs platform) access to a simple annual blood test that screens for signals shared by over 50 types of cancer (including hard-to-detect ones like pancreatic, liver, ovarian, and lung) before symptoms appear. Hims & Hers is offering it at a discounted ~$700 (vs. retail $949), following their participation in GRAIL's $325 million private placement investment in late 2025, which strengthens the partnership and positions this as a core pillar of proactive/longevity care. This could help push Average growth to 30-35% vs 28.2%(my above revised projection). These levers, combined with a subscriber base exceeding 2.5 million (up 31% YoY) and AI-enhanced platform efficiency under new CTO leadership, support an upward revision to growth rates targeting 22-25% CAGR from 2026-2030 to meet the company's $6.5 billion revenue goal, far outpacing prior conservative estimates of mid-teens expansion. This high-growth scenario assumes execution on global scaling, regulatory navigation (FDA approvals for compounded alternatives), and margin recovery to 74-78% via vertical integration, positioning Hims & Hers as a comprehensive digital health ecosystem rather than a GLP-1-dependent player, with potential upside from emerging trends like peptide demand (up 144% in Google searches) and proactive wellness adoption. Not Financial Advice!
Mike@MikeLongTerm

$HIMS Fundamental Snapshot ✅ Fundamental > Noise

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NurseJerBear
NurseJerBear@JerBearRN·
💊 $HIMS It’s not about acquisition, It’s about marginal execution Acquired Peptide facility, YourBio, LiveWell for Generic Semaglutide into Canada, Trybe Labs for at-home labs, Zava … what growth have we seen from these? Recent product launches: Grail Cancer testing & Oral Semaglutide The market has lost faith in $HIMS leadership
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Tevis
Tevis@FunOfInvesting·
So you're saying $HIMS ($3.6B company) bought a company valued at $1.15B ($240M in cash) doing $450M ARR and the stock was flat? I get the $HIMS hate, but the stock should've absolutely moved on this news. The math maths. Does this buyout change anything for $HIMS skeptics?
Tevis tweet media
From Growth To Value@FromValue

🚨BREAKING🚨 $HIMS buys Eucalyptus, an Australian 🇦🇺 telehealth company active in Australia, Japan🇯🇵, the UK🇬🇧, Germany🇩🇪, and Canada🇨🇦. It's the only Australian telehealth company to have ACHS stamp (high-quality standard). The worldwide expansion continues H/t Multi FVDB🙏

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