Neil Farley

Fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck

@peteroverzet, my apartment is smaller than the size of two standard parking spaces, please help me

@Emo__Cowboy @peteroverzet @david_kitchen When a DK Pro speaks, I listen. Much to my detriment

@FeilNarley @peteroverzet Did @david_kitchen sponsor this??

There was literally only one other team with this Denver + Seahawks combo advancing and it had less active players going into next round

Oh what could have been. If only Marks didn’t score that TD Wouldn’t have won anyways and that’s still probably not the Super Bowl, but it made for a fun fantasy

In theory Rico Dowdle was a great play in several spots. The issues started to arise as soon as reality came into play

going to draft a couple of these w/ @FeilNarley to kick off the bash today youtube.com/live/isS-tSP2-…

I guess pods can each seem surmountable when viewed in isolation and obscure the greater structure and challenge

I’m continuing to see pod luck discussions, so a few people might be interested in this. There’s definitely some irony in some tournaments without pods (sprint + marathon) struggling to fill for a second year in a row

@JustinHerzig @JustinFreeman18 Agreed, it’s worth swapping to him for that despite the higher adp

@FeilNarley @JustinFreeman18 I think I’d then go Bijan Decent regular season but three straight very strong playoff weeks RB3, RB3, RB2

Full benefit of hindsight - I’ll give you 150 best ball teams of ANY one player of your choice at closing ADP. Who would it be? (Ex. You can have 150 teams of mid/late-round 2 Jonathan Taylor)

@JustinHerzig @JustinFreeman18 Let’s change the question a bit then. Say you can lock in a players exact production at their closing ADP from this year for next season. So the alignment with other ADPs doesn’t matter. Would you answer differently?

@JustinFreeman18 Derrick Henry in the early 2nd Naturally gets you some round 1 Puka. Will prob get some JSN in 3rd. Could take Stafford and Pitts to correlate week 17. Would have a ton of teams that did well in regular season and had the three elite guys of each week of the playoffs

That's it, the end of my latest thread that literally no one asked for. Now for some of the worst conversations focused on the team that happened to win and how X, Y, and/or Z was so critical. I'm more convinced than ever week 17 correlation is overrated after seeing my timeline

If it didn't work out this time around, I hope the variance evens out for you in the future. Seeing others achieve what you dream of can be difficult. Grasping the variance and wild game we're partaking in helps me. Hope your real life is going well!

Curious what role of pod luck played? I estimate no team had a higher than 10% chance to win BBM given player level results. The winning team had ~6.4% chance of coming away with $2 million. Nearly 89% of the time, the team didn't make the finals docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

I'll post full pod luck stuff next week. Good luck in your finals. If you didn't make it, hope you enjoyed the ride. Sunday night and Monday night didn't break well for me. It was a fun run and still a fortunate year for me, so hard to really complain.

If people are interested, I can post expected finals ownership differences between pod formats vs cut lines. I think with finals ownership being known and seeing less cut line discussion, though it's not as interesting as last year.

Here's an approximation of the score necessary to advance in BBM This uses scores from week 15 + 16 without regard for actual pods created. There are a few reasons this isn't 100% accurate, but it can serve as a very close estimation. I will post full pod luck results next week