Absolutely incredible:
The US 20Y Note Yield is now above 5.00%.
At the current pace, we will have 7% mortgages and $4.00 gas prices this week.
Talk about a turn of events.
Oil prices are no longer the biggest threat to markets.
It has become increasingly clear that bond markets will dictate just how long President Trump can continue increase pressure in the Iran War.
The 10Y Note Yield is now up ~45 basis points since the war began on February 28th.
This is in-line with the rapid surge seen around "Liberation Day" in April 2025.
As the 10Y Note Yield surged above 4.50% in April 2025, President Trump began floating a potential tariff "pause."
And, once the 10Y Yield broke above 4.60%, President Trump officially implemented a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, 2025.
With the 10Y Note Yield now up to 4.40%, we believe the 4.50% to 4.60% range will be the "line in the sand" again.
The US economy cannot handle a 5% 10Y Note Yield.
BREAKING: The UK's 10Y Government Bond Yield has officially risen above 5.00% for the first time since 2008.
Europe is bracing for another wave of inflation amid a worsening energy crisis.
Consensus is shifting, and rightly so:
This third week of the war has fueled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked by the non-linear risks associated with tipping points and multiple equilibrium dynamics—poses an increasing threat to global economic wellbeing and financial stability.
#economy#energy#markets#middleeastwar
In a sudden turn of events, US 12-month inflation expectations have surged to 5.2%, the highest level since March 2023.
In just 3 weeks, markets have gone from pricing-in rate cuts to rate hikes.
We congratulate Gerd Faltings as the 2026 Abel Prize laureate! 🎉 He recives the Abel Prize "for introducing powerful tools in arithmetic geometry and resolving long-standing diophantine conjectures of Mordell and Lang".