Mathans Lomiug
70 posts
$TMDX I think starting the lung trials was a mistake. In my opinion, they should’ve done those trials after Europe and kidney.
I think they should’ve waited on lung and focused on these other expansion areas.
If lung doesn’t work out, it’ll be a huge waste of resources
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$TMDX may see QoQ revenue accelerate from Q2 to Q3, something that didn’t happen the last couple years and would easily put them on track to surpass current yearly guidance.
Flight growth MoM is greater than 10% and it doesn’t account for Europe growth that should accelerate as well.
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$ASTS cost per satellite is likely fairly above the 23m-25m adjusted figure they gave on the last earnings call.
Though if they can get their partners to contribute to these expenses, the economics start looking great.
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Notice how well $BAER stock has held up amid a momentum breakdown?
Bridger Aerospace@BridgerAero
The U.S. has reached National Preparedness Level 5. Our crews and aircraft are deployed across the country, supporting firefighters on the front lines. #aerialfirefighting #wildfire #fire #fireseason2026
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I ended selling $WBI for a fairly small gain.
Stock is on a tear this year wow
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning
Bought 5% starter position in $WBI I’ve been in and out of it for a few months now. Insider purchases are considerable. LOT of upside.
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$TSM just reported strong earnings.
Double beat and raise but the stock is down.
Why?
They raised CapEx guidance. That’s what’s hurting every stock right now.
Everything we’re seeing is bullish for key suppliers like $MU because it’s very clear companies are still spending and building.
Good opportunity to start building a long term position in $MU now that it’s in the $900s imo.
Could it go lower? Yes. But I like the risk/reward after the pullback from $1300ish
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Too much hubris and excitement in the market.
Any bearish post gets trolled and everyone acts like you’re insane for thinking fundamentals matter.
Most people pumping stocks on X have no idea what fundamentals even are.
I’m long-term bullish on stocks but fully expect stocks I own to pull back 30% - 50%.
It happens with every great stock and it’s why no real investor goes “all in” to any single stock.
Sure some people get lucky with that, but in 99.9% of cases that’s what it is. Luck
Sweet spot for me is owning 10-20 stocks and not worrying about the people who act like they’re geniuses because they got lucky with a single stock.
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$AAOI at $111 is a generational buying opportunity before August earnings...
Or is it heading straight back to double digits? 🧐
All I know is I’m buying more and Morgan Stanley recent report confirmed my initial conviction
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Be honest...
Is $PENG a better value buy right now for enterprise AI infrastructure than $CRDO is for high-speed connectivity?
Or are both heading much lower? 🧐
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Here is why I bought more $AAOI and keep DCA every week.
People are watching the multi-week drop from the $223.10 peak down to today's $113 area and panicking, thinking it's a permanent breakdown. It’s the same old story every time a stock pulls back.
But while people are panicking over the red candles, look at the actual buyers here. Rosenblatt literally just re-issued their $220 price target with an ironclad Buy rating. The analysts who actually understand the AI optical networking cycle aren't flinching at all.
The bears have thrown every piece of emotional noise they can at this level to try and crack the floor, but the tape is holding firm. The underlying setup is lining up perfectly if you actually look at the details.
First off, the executive selling noise is totally overblown. The recent Form 4 filings showing stock sales from the CFO and regional GMs caused a quick panic. But people completely missed that these were automated, programmatic sales done strictly to cover tax withholding obligations when their equity vested. It wasn't a manual dump, and the market has already swallowed that volume anyway.
Second, the "CPO Delay" everyone is crying about is actually a massive win for us. Generalists read the recent Morgan Stanley research pushing out Co-Packaged Optics deployment to 2028/2029 and thought it was bad news. They have it completely backward. Pushing out CPO dramatically stretches out the high-margin revenue runway for high-speed pluggable transceivers and LPO. AAOI’s massive capacity ramp up to 650k units per month across their 800G and 1.6T lines by December is exactly what next-gen AI clusters are starving for.
It all points to a major financial turning point. As production volumes cross the threshold into actual volume shipments for top-tier hyperscalers, higher factory output is going to seriously expand margins and cash flow. Combine that hyper-growth AI backlog with their non-data center revenue cushion, like the massive multi-year, one-million-home Mediacom broadband upgrade win, and you are pricing a diversified supplier at a profound discount.
We’ve seen this exact movie play out on $AAOI multiple times. It ranges violently, shakes out the late-stage leverage chasers, builds a structural base at key support levels, and then snaps back.
Copper has hit its physical limits for next-gen 500k+ GPU clusters. Photons are the only answer left, and AAOI owns the in-house laser manufacturing layer.
Let people day-trade the intraday noise. The base is built. Time to take us back to All-Time Highs.
Bullish AFK $AAOI
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Morgan Stanley: Astera Labs ($ALAB ) The Big Picture: Pure-Play Winner in AI Connectivity
The $70B Hardware Tailwind: The AI scale-up network market has been revised up over 4x to a $70 billion+ opportunity by 2030. As backend clusters scale past 1,000 GPUs, eliminating the communication bottleneck is the single most critical engineering hurdle.
Outsized Content Expansion: Morgan Stanley highlights ($ALAB ) incredible ability to scale its dollar content per accelerator from roughly $50/$100 at IPO to more than $1,000 today.
Shifting Attention to Scorpio: With its PCIe-based Scorpio-X platform actively shipping, Astera is successfully capturing the near-term infrastructure wave, particularly across custom hyperscaler ASIC programs.
The "Copper Wall" Bridge & Protocol Moats
Sticky Copper Runway: While the tape panics over immediate optical replacements, copper remains dominant for short-reach intra-rack connectivity. This durability protects ($ALAB ) core business while they develop an organic optical roadmap for the late 2028, 2029 transition.
PCIe as the Ultimate Structural Bridge: Hyperscalers are leaning heavily on PCIe as a key transitional fabric before migrating to native AI protocols, directly feeding Astera's pipeline. The company already has more than 10 active customer engagements on its Scorpio scale-up platform.
Ecosystem Interconnect & Custom ASIC Wins
Custom Silicon Ramps: Astera is established as a prime beneficiary of non-NVIDIA accelerator unit growth, securing the critical PCIe-based scale-up switch program for Amazon's Trainium 3.
The NVLink Fusion Optionality: Astera sits as a key ecosystem partner for $NVDA.NE NVLink Fusion strategy. By supplying a protocol translation chip that attaches one-to-one with third-party XPUs, they unlock an alternative business model that trades lower individual ASPs for massive, high-volume attach rates.
Multi-Fabric Insulation: Whether the open alternative market ultimately converges on UALink or Scale-Up Ethernet, ($ALAB ) broad positioning across PCIe, UALink, and hybrid optics fully insulates the long-term growth thesis.
Personally very bullish on $ALAB long term
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SemiAnalysis创始人Dylan Patel最新访谈：存储仍有2-3倍上涨空间，CPU为短期补缺，CPO量产推迟至2028年底-2029年
Dylan Patel指出，Anthropic已实现自由现金流转正、ARR突破500亿美元且毛利率超70%，有力回应市场对AI ROI的质疑。
硬件层面，AI推理模型驱动的内存需求呈结构性爆炸增长，供应缺口将持续多年，价格仍有2-3倍上涨空间；
CPU增长主要来自历史补缺，属短期「迷你周期」；
CPO大规模量产推迟至2028年底-2029年，铜缆红利期意外延长；
电力瓶颈则推动数据中心加速转向「表后电源」自建方案，催生能源与电力转换供应链的重大投资机会。
AI基础设施各层同步承压，机会与风险并存。以下为Dylan Patel访谈核心观点的逻辑重构与分析提炼。
1. AI需求侧：ROI疑虑落地，Anthropic率先实现盈利
市场普遍质疑AI投资回报，Dylan以Anthropic具体数据回应：2026年Q2已实现自由现金流转正（4-6月连续盈利），ARR超500亿美元，毛利率超70%。
OpenAI也随Codex等产品采用率提升快速增长。
SemiAnalysis自身AI支出轨迹印证这一趋势：2025年11月90人团队年化AI支出不足10万美元；2026年1月底因Claude Code大规模应用飙升至400万美元；
目前达1100万美元（峰值周折算1400万美元），已占人力成本三分之一，年底可能达一半。
分析洞见：更强模型未必更贵。新模型通过更高token效率（例如任务从10万token/多轮交互降至2.5万token/单次完成）降低综合成本。
这正是Anthropic在竞争中领先OpenAI的关键：token效率更高，用户总成本更低。
企业往往通过削减其他SaaS支出、而非压缩AI预算来支持AI增长，生产力提升带来的价值远超增量成本。
2. 内存：结构性超级周期，而非普通周期
Dylan对内存最为看好，判断这不是短期短缺，而是持续多年的结构性短缺。
核心驱动：推理模型（尤其是o1-like）使上下文长度爆炸式增长，KV Cache需求激增。传统对话上下文仅数千token，而推理模型可达数十万token，内存消耗呈指数级差异。
供给侧：内存产能年增长仅20-30%，远低于AI需求翻倍速度。价格已涨约4倍，预计还将再涨2-3倍。消费电子（中低端手机出货已降40%）将率先被挤压，iPhone/MacBook等高端产品明年价格将上涨，直至AI获得足够产能。
长期视角：即使未来进入下行周期，从波谷到波谷仍呈明确增长趋势。内存将从大宗商品转向高毛利结构性成长品类。
3. CPU：补缺行情为主，勿过度外推
CPU因强化学习（环境验证）和智能体（工具调用、实时交互）需求复苏，但Dylan给出明确警示：这主要是历史补缺，属短期迷你周期。
- 过去数百万颗AI加速芯片出货，但配套CPU严重不足，目前处于集中补齐阶段。
- 单系统价值：Blackwell GPU约5万美元，CPU仅约5000美元。即使CPU配比提升，绝对金额仍远低于GPU和内存。
- 长期来看，一旦补缺完成，需求回归正常增量，增长速度不会持续超过AI加速芯片。
分析：CPU是AI服务器中的「配角」，其重估已较合理，但不会改变GPU+内存主导的格局。
4. 光互联：CPO推迟，铜缆红利延长
CPO（共封装光学）被市场过度乐观，Dylan判断大规模量产推迟至2028年底-2029年。
原因：制造良率、芯片设计、供应链成熟度不足。 NVIDIA Rubin及后续Feynman架构仍主要采用铜方案，CPO需等待多代迭代。
中期机会：铜缆和非CPO光学方案受益更大（如安费诺等连接器公司）。长期CPO必然发生，但短中期铜缆仍有显著红利窗口。
5. 电力：表后电源成主流，能源链条机会广阔
电力是AI增长最硬的物理约束。预测：今年新增数据中心用电20GW，明年30GW，后年50GW。
拆解三维度：
- 输电：最难突破，受监管、地方垄断、成本分摊机制制约。
- 发电：表后电源（自建）将占新增用电约一半。主流为CCGT联合循环燃气机组（GE Vernova、三菱、西门子），同时涌现往复式发动机、工业燃气轮机乃至改装车/船/火车发动机的创新方案。
约两年后，太阳能+储能成本有望低于燃气；更长期可考虑太空数据中心（无需储能）。
- 转换：IGBT、SiC、GaN MOSFET、固态变压器、UPS、超级电容等电压转换链路快速演进（12V→54V→800V DC等）。
SemiAnalysis目前最大研究团队正是「DEI」（Data Center、Energy & Industrial），追踪全球每座数据中心与发电资产动态。
总结投资逻辑
AI基础设施每一层均面临瓶颈，但也孕育结构性机会：内存超级周期、铜缆延长红利、表后能源与电力转换链。
Dylan Patel的判断强调区分短期补缺与长期结构性趋势，避免情绪化外推，聚焦供需错配、技术落地时间线与经济学本质。
此分析框架，帮助投资者穿越市场噪音，把握AI基础设施的真实脉动。 $DRAM
中文
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