AgAu Element
640 posts
AgAu Element
@AgAuElements
Commodity Trader in Minor Metals and Precious Metals I share my ideas and thesis
Katılım Haziran 2023
100 Takip Edilen504 Takipçiler
@TheBTCKnight Yo very inspiring what's your impressions in the last 2 weeks ?
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Based off of past payouts what do you think the knight gets this time around?
I’m guessing $110-$120
These are verified engagements and replies from other accounts.
How’s your numbers looking?
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You honestly can't hate on @aleabitoreddit , he’s easily the most transparent account on here. And for all the haters who swore he quietly dumped $AAOI , $AXTI , and $SIVE his position at the top, he’s showing the exact reality of holding high-beta names through a brutal flush.
It's easy for retail to panic week-to-week, but the actual thesis hasn't changed. If you're positioned in the core AI bottlenecks and chokepoints, the structural revenue inflection is still ahead. Volatility is just the price you pay for a longer horizon. Tough short term, but the conviction remains.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
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Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.
My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.
In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.
I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:
- “AI is a bubble”
- “memory/kospi is a bubble”
- “photonics is a bubble”
- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”
- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”
And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.
But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.
And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.
I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.
Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now.
Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
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$AAOI up 5% today after dropping 36% in a month
we are so back 💀🚀
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@IndexAndForget Amazing ! Did you already get a payout from X ?
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My goal was to hit 2m by today, can we do it by the end of the day?
Almost 1000 verified follows too, thanks!
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This 20%+ plunge in high-beta momentum looks absolutely terrifying on paper, marking the biggest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.
If you’re holding high-flying hardware names, this flush is hurting bad. When macro liquidity abruptly pulls the plug on momentum, the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater. This isn't a fundamental problem with optical infrastructure, it’s just a massive, market-wide deleveraging event hitting anything with a high beta.
But remember, the actual business fundamentals don’t vanish just because a chart resets. The reality of the datacenter buildout, the massive scale-up of the interconnect layer, and non-stop hyperscaler demand are all completely locked in. A historic drop like this wrecks short-term paper net worth, but it doesn't shrink the actual physical pipelines or incoming production cycles.
Don't mistake a violent momentum unwind for a structural breakdown. $SIVE, $AAOI , $NBIS , $CIEN
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@walker119298 Any business losses money in the beginning what matters is the outcome. The product fits a need and the demand outgrows the supplies. As long as funding is there those companies will be profitable in no time
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@AgAuElements your understanding is too shallow. you need to understand what's valuation. Making something is FAR AWAY from having their stock price justified. They are losing money like bleeding. P/E and P?S are 25 years ahead of itself.
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"meme stocks" 😂
$SIVE literally makes Indium Phosphide (InP) laser arrays that keep data center optical engines running.
$AAOI makes their own laser diodes in-house and is scaling 800G/1.6T transceiver production.
without this tech, GPU clusters literally can't talk to each other. buy the dip.
HY6@highyield6
Turns out all these “bottleneck” semis were just meme stocks
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@Dubbiosismo I disagree not a fan of $AXTI as they are very dependent to Chinese export restrictions
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If you’re wondering why your stocks are hitting a brick wall right now, look at the data: July and August are historically the dead zones where the trend goes to die.
The data from 1927 to 2026 shows that while December is the holy grail, the summer months turn into a flat-line chop. July prints a negative mean monthly return (-3%) with an absolute ghost town of a t-stat (-0.1).
It’s the classic mid-year momentum lull. The high-flyers lose steam, volume thins out, and the market spends two months churning sideways before the powerful September-to-December seasonal leg kicks back in.
If your longs are experiencing a choppy, frustrating round-trip right now, don't panic and hold on to your position $AAOI , $SIVE , $NBIS ,
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@drayinvests Yo inspiring ! By curiosity what was your first payout amount?
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Breaking NEWS: UBS is keeping its long-term target at 9,200 points for $KOSPI .
$KOSPI shedding over 6% looks ugly. Here is what's actually happening under the hood: South Korean regulators just aggressively raised the minimum cash margin for single-stock leveraged ETFs from KRW 3M to a massive KRW 30M to curb retail speculation. This, combined with natural market selling, has already wiped out over KRW 700B in leveraged AUM from its peak.
Because Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix make up a massive 56% of the KOSPI, the violent deleveraging of these leveraged products is magnifying the short-term volatility of the underlying stocks.
UBS is warning of near-term turbulence, but their long-term bull thesis is backed by massive projected EPS growth of 265% for 2026 and 66% for 2027. They've shifted to a barbell strategy to weather the storm, keeping SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics as high-conviction overweights.
The retail leverage is being flushed out, but the structural AI setup remains. Buy the volatility. $AAOI $SIVE $NBIS $CIEN $STM
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@S7VENTrading It's going to be interesting to see earnings I think $AAOI and $SIVE can def reach new high will just depend on how the economy is and currently with the war tensions risiing its not helping
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@AgAuElements Hi bud,
Are you quite confident $SIVE can make a strong comeback?
I like $AAOI much more, so I’m not worried about that
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Jensen: "We are only at the beginning of the AI tech cycle."
Reality: $AAOI , $SIVE, and $NBIS are being completely decimated this week on zero bad news. 📉
if you aren't loading up on optical and GPU infrastructure at this absolute discount, what are you even doing?
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru
JUST IN: Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says the AI boom is "still at the beginning" of the cycle.
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I THOUGHT THE STOCK MARKET ALWAYS GOES UP
WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW?
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2.2M IMPRESSIONS… 👀
Is this finally my first 𝕏 payout? 💰
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Payout day is tomorrow — fingers crossed this is the one!
I hit 770.4K impressions for the period.
Hopefully the 4th time is the charm.
Honestly, how do some of you consistently pull in 1M+ organic impressions? Any suggestions?
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literally zero bad news out for any of these companies, yet everything is getting completely obliterated.
$AAOI dumping below $95. $SIVE sitting at 32 SEK. $NBIS down to $165.
this market is actually unhinged right now. are you holding or did you fold?
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