@Globalflows Doesn’t matter what the other guys says.
Do your own homework. Make your own decision… that’s how you roll.
That’s how I roll.
👊😎
English
Fenway Capital
120 posts
I’m not saying I know the right answer, but I definitely know for sure that guy over there has no clue what he’s talking about
English
@dampedspring @NancyMace I avoid taxes as much as is allowed… I’m a capitalist…. Damn the torpedos! lol
English
@NancyMace Our seniors should pay more than they do now. They have been the direct beneficiaries of fiscal expansion more so than any cohort except possibly corporates (but the seniors own the shares of those corporates).
Speaking as a senior and beneficiary btw
English
Fenway Capital retweetledi
Trading and investing in a bubble regime
1. Always own beta (doesnt matter much what kind)
2. With every ounce of your being do not leverage up
3. Overweight professional managed cheap trend following managers
4. Under no circumstances short the rally.
5. BUT most importantly do not buy the dip when the bubble has popped.
Excess Returns@excessreturnpod
"What I've noticed in looking at bubble regimes is strategies that work most of the time don't work as well in bubble regimes, except for one." "Your alpha is probably less than it has been because your sample set that you've used to train your alpha, train your mind doesn't include very many bubble regimes." Andy Constan on how active investors can adjust in a bubble regime.
English
Fenway Capital retweetledi
Paul Singer lost 88% of his parents' life savings, then he built a fund that has made money almost every single year for 47 years straight
This is him explaining the one rule that made it possible
"my dad was a retail pharmacist, he and I traded tiny amounts of tech stocks, between 1967 and 1974 we found every possible way conceivable to lose money"
"when I started Elliott in 1977 with $1.3 million from friends and family, I was determined to engage in a strategy that made money all the time"
Сarm1ne@carm1nee
Ray Dalio built a $150 billion hedge fund and says every investor should replace themselves with an algorithm, this is him explaining exactly why "every time I made a trade, I would write down why. then I would test that rule across every country and every decade in history. then I turned it into an algorithm." "you will build a decision-making system that works like a GPS operating in parallel with you it processes way more information, much faster, with greater accuracy, and without emotion" "the markets teach you to be humble, the fear of being wrong makes you want to find the smartest people who disagree with you"
English
Fenway Capital retweetledi
Fenway Capital retweetledi
Fenway Capital retweetledi
Gm frens
Reading Proverbs 20 today
Take 5 mins to read it and lmk what verse stands out to you. For me it’s verse 28.
God’s word will always give life to those who seek it. Christ is at the center of all of it and is the only Way
English
Fenway Capital retweetledi
Fenway Capital retweetledi
I was an uptight 32-year-old who'd just left Goldman.
Barely any money when I started my own business.
So naturally my pompous little ass joined the Harvard Club — I wanted people to know I went to Harvard.
Four years of breakfast meetings, prospect after prospect.
Meanwhile Joaquin is busing my table every morning.
We'd chat often and I tipped well.
One day he comes over and says — Mr. Anthony, you manage money, right? We've had a personal injury situation.
My family just came into $35 million. You've always been kind to me.
Would you manage it?
The guy busing my table had a higher net worth than I did.
Be good to people. All of it comes back around.
English
Fenway Capital retweetledi
The alpha from 13F's isn't duplicating stale positions.
It's from identifying investment strategies over long time horizons of various individual managers and managers in homogenous cohorts and seeing why these folks buy and sell what they buy and sell and how it works over time. Then if you can understand the why, you can predict what they are doing real time or even before they buy and sell. That's where the alpha is IF any.
Old and lagged positions data does contain alpha.
For instance the TIC data is lagged by even longer time frames and is essential for those who attempt to model bond flows
English
Fenway Capital retweetledi
Over four years ago before QT even started I described how QT could and would be muted based on Treasury issuance policy and coined the term higherer for longerer island where rates stay high and inflation doesn't die.
I mistakenly assumed the Fed actually understood the monetary policy impact of their balance sheet policy AND recently wrongly assumed Bessent would care about inflation and act to term out the debt.
As every cruise ship (not affected by the rare hantacession virus) steams at full speed to H4L island let me remind you that hikes won't kill inflation. Only asset price declines caused by bond term premium expansion fueled by duration issuance will kill inflation.
Until the policymakers finally accept their utter failure to understand the impact of their balance sheet we will have substantially above target inflation and equity will outperform bonds and cash but USD will be weak and Gold and ROW stocks will outperform US stocks.
English
Fenway Capital retweetledi
I've created an entire suite of educational articles, macro models, and book recommendations that are 100% FREE
I will be doing a livestream tomorrow explaining HOW to use all of them
You can find all of them here: capitalflowsresearch.com/p/research-syn…
English
The European mind can’t even comprehend this level of patriotism 🇺🇸
Welcome to global macro
686 Ebullient Prism@686Prism
@Globalflows gm show gun
English
@dampedspring And there it is… truth. Refreshing in today’s world.
English
Fenway Capital retweetledi
Korea government wanting to steal from semis to pay a Citizen Dividend reminded me that governments are in the business of legislation for "socially destructive" corporate activity.
On the Brady Commission with very little perspective, as it was so fresh, we pointed at the October 15th rostenkowski bill targeting "socially destructive" lbos as one of the primary causes of the crash.
In this oldie but goodie from AQR they concluded the same.
While last nights news was almost certainly nothing. I can practically guarantee the government will attempt to steel the fruit of AI company labor when it's politically expedient.
aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Do…
English
@dampedspring Bought 68220, sold 78,800 ish
See you at the answer to the universe…
English
