Fergus Jimenez-England

⚡️Our reaction to the latest #GDP figures is out now ⚡️ @FergusJimenezE @RoyalEconSoc

Our latest #GDP Tracker suggests the UK economy will grow by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter of this year, though we expect shallow monthly growth outturns as disruption from the #energyprice shock ripples through the economy. Read more here ⬇️ hubs.la/Q04gySH40

You can read all of our analyses on GDP here 👉 niesr.ac.uk/publication-ty… 2/2

⚡️Whatever tomorrow’s #GDP outturn, the trend is clear: the UK economy faces a year of weak growth and high inflation⚡️ Economist's @FergusJimenezE comment ahead of tomorrow's GDP numbers ⬇️ 1/2

The latest @CFMUK-NIESR survey has just been published. The panel members largely agree that war bonds are not the solution to financing increased defence spending Read more here⬇️ hubs.la/Q04d-XGG0

⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ Our latest #GDP Tracker suggests GDP will grow by 0.4% in the second quarter 📈 But the outlook remains uncertain with the prospect of #stagflation affecting the UK economy in 2026 Read more here ⬇️ hubs.la/Q04ck7rm0

⚡️Our reaction to the latest #GDP figures is out now⚡️ #UKeconomy #EnergyPrice #IranWar‌

@CornforthEdmund THIS is how to do scenarios. Take a bow

Using our global macroeconometric model, NiGEM, we simulate the effect of false vacuum decay on the UK economy. As the fundamental laws of nature that govern the very forces that keep our particles recognisable disintegrate, we expect this to have a negative effect on real GDP.

The panel members on the @CFMUK-NIESR survey favour a tighter interest rate path in the UK as a response to higher energy prices. They also believe that that the UK will experience greater negative effects than the Euro Area hubs.la/Q048zFc00

⚡️JUST PUBLISHED⚡️ The latest #DirectorView is out now📈 In this week's 'Dean Trench' Memo our Director David Aikman outlines five lessons for the current #MonetaryPolicy response to the #energyprice shock ⬇️ #UKeconomy #BankOfEngland #InterestRates hubs.la/Q047v-Bz0

On Thursday the #BankOfEngland will make its decision on #interestrates - Ahead of it, we have added a new interactive line chart to our Monetary Policy Dashboard, showing how six different monetary policy rules suggest where the Bank of England should set Bank Rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis 📈 Have a play here⬇️ hubs.la/Q0475WKf0 You can read more on the line chart itself here 👉 hubs.la/Q0475S7P0

⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ Our latest #GDP Tracker suggests that, despite today's disappointing figure, UK GDP should grow by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, driven by a recovery in activity in #services and #production 📈 We expect the impact of elevated #energyprices on growth to be limited in the first quarter. Read more here⬇️ hubs.la/Q046Hfn00

⚡️Our reaction to the latest #GDP figures is out now ⚡️ #UKeconomy #IranWar‌ #EnergyPrices

⚡️Our first reaction to the #SpringStatement is out now ⚡️ #UKeconomy #Chancellor #Unemployment #OBR

⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ The latest CfM-NIESR survey looks at the rising #unemployment in the UK Nearly half of the panel identified government policies as a very important driver of the rise in young #NEETs and #youth unemployment over the past year 📈 Read more here ⬇️ hubs.la/Q044P30Z0

This #TPI working paper from @EconSteveM, @MichailMonica @FergusJimenezE & Antonio Haro Bañón shows that productivity shocks hit the UK economy differently depending on where they start, with London and the South still having the largest influence on aggregate GDP. hubs.la/Q044cRPT0

@wolfman_55 @NIESRorg Good question. NIESR’s short-term predictions of aggregate GDP growth are based on a bottom-up analysis of recent monthly trends in the main sub-sectors. In turn, population growth does not feed into this forecast.

@NIESRorg Is that on the back of population growth?

⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ Our latest #GDP Tracker suggests GDP will grow by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026 📈 Services sector is expected to drive growth after sluggish performance in the last quarter of 2025 Read more here 👇 hubs.la/Q042Qs8p0

Finally, NIESR forecasts GDP to grow by 0.3 per cent this quarter, consistent with reports of improved business sentiment in the New Year.

6. Business investment accounted for around one quarter of last year’s growth. This is reflects a recovery in the first quarter of 2025, with momentum waning over the year. Business investment in the first half of 2025 grew by 2.9 per cent but fell by 0.6 per cent in the second.

6 Highlights from today's GDP numbers + 1 Forecast... 1. Production drove growth in Q4 but this reflects strong earlier outturns (shoutout JLR restart) rather than consistent momentum (0.9% contraction in December).