Edmund Cornforth

Another interesting #webinar tomorrow! 📌⬇️ Monetary Policy Implications of the Energy Price Shock 🗓️2 April ⏰1-2pm 💻Online A panel discussion with Spencer Dale (former BoE and BP), Christiane Baumeister (@NotreDame), and Jack Meaning (@BarclaysUK), chaired by @MyStephanomics hubs.la/Q04931mJ0

As all human life perishes while debt, a fundamentally intangible and non-corporeal entity, lives on, government's may not be able to service debt adequately as tax receipts suddenly drop. They may want to build in some fiscal space to insure against this scenario.

We consider this an extreme tail risk in our forecast, as the ability to verify whether we are in a false vacuum is currently beyond human empirics, and is therefore subject to a high degree of uncertainty.

Using our global macroeconometric model, NiGEM, we simulate the effect of false vacuum decay on the UK economy. As the fundamental laws of nature that govern the very forces that keep our particles recognisable disintegrate, we expect this to have a negative effect on real GDP.

What are the potential impacts of the increase in global oil and gas prices on #GDP and #inflation across some of the major economies? And how they differ? Our @CornforthEdmund explains in our latest #blog, just published, here ⬇️ hubs.la/Q046vSmh0

naming my daughter emily short for maximum likelihood estimation

🚨NEW ANALYSIS OUT NOW🚨 Our latest simulation shows that if the energy prices shock persists, it would have big impact on UK #inflation and #GDP, and could force the Bank of England to raise #InterestRates back above 4%💥 ⬇️Read more here ⬇️ hubs.la/Q045wX5h0

As an economist who has worn a very similar outfit to work, I feel represented

Got it—based on this photo, it looks like you’re standing beside a statue of Ozymandias, a great and well-remembered King. If you would like, I can help you plan a tour of the surrounding area to explore the notable achievements and landmarks associated with his reign.

"At the very moment the #Bank lists have a dozen rising risks, it decides banks need less capital. That is quite something." 🔥 The #DirectorView is out now📈 In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman assesses the Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC) latest judgement on bank #equity capital - in what is a must-read #blog 👇 #BankOfEngland #FinancialStability #UKeconomy @RoyalEconSoc hubs.la/Q03X0mLk0

#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman explores explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’ 👇 hubs.la/Q03Vs8mg0

Our analysis of today's Autumn #Budget is published! We believe it locks in a high-tax, high-debt steady state in a world of low productivity growth and higher interest rates with a modest fiscal tightening over the forecast. Our full take on today's announcements can be found on our website: hubs.la/Q03V_59Z0

@EomicsUK "The OBR's downgrade to its #productivity forecast acknowledges the economic reality of lower trend GDP growth", according to NIESR Senior Economist @BenEcon33 #Budget2025

"While the #Chancellor can justifiably claim she has not raised the main rates of tax, the freezing of thresholds and increases in income tax rates from non-wage sources, will impact on households", as explained by NIESR Senior Economist @EomicsUK #Budget2025

Our Director David Aikman reacts to the fiscal headroom announcement in the #autumnbudget

@EomicsUK @BenEcon33 NIESR Deputy Director @AdrianPabst1 comments on the impact of the #Budget2025 on #livingstandards: "[The Chancellor's] decision to extend the freeze in income tax thresholds will hit the bottom 30% of UK households the hardest."

Our @FergusJimenezE reaction on the #taxandspending announcement in the #autumnbudget

Finally got round to reading it after many years, and it was everything I wanted it to be- Spooky, romantic, mystical, and human.

"And the truth is that as a man's real power grows and his knowledge widens, ever the way he can follow grows narrower; until at last he chooses nothing, but does only and wholly what he must do..." - A Wizard of Earthsea, Ursula K. Le Guin

The #DirectorView is out now 📈 In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman looks at what is driving the UK’s rise in gilt yields and how can they start to be brought down 📉 Read it here 👇 hubs.la/Q03N4mR_0