Lars Fin Kristensen Løvenov

Some thoughts on the current situation around the war 📌Putin appears to believe that Russia is winning and will ultimately win the war. In his view, taking Donbas is only a matter of time. He seems ready to pay almost any price to achieve that goal because he sees it as an existential issue for Russia. Those who expect that increasing pressure on Putin will create more room for negotiations are likely to be disappointed. More pressure is more likely to lead to further radicalisation in Moscow and a stronger military response. 📌Economic difficulties, which are becoming more serious, together with battlefield losses and the fuel crisis, are unlikely to make Putin reconsider his approach to the war. Instead, they are more likely to harden his position, encourage further escalation, and increase the risk of scenarios that many have previously dismissed as bluff. 📌There is a growing gap between the political leadership and the rest of the country, particularly the business community, which increasingly wants the war to end. At present, there is little room for internal debate or for questioning Putin’s course. Instead, the leadership appears committed to further escalation, with no clear limits. This is likely to make these internal contradictions more acute over time. 📌Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are strengthening anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western sentiment, making it easier for the Kremlin to justify further escalation. At the same time, Russian public opinion is divided. Some argue that the war should end roughly along the current front line, while others call for far more extreme measures, including the destruction of Kyiv, the use of nuclear weapons, and mass violence against Ukrainians. A prolonged war of attrition will further strengthen both camps. 📌The year 2026 appears to be a particularly important stage in the war. For the first time, the cumulative effects of the conflict are having a visible impact on Russia’s domestic situation, raising questions about the state’s ability to continue functioning in the same way. This weakens Putin politically, but it also appears to make him more radical, contributing to a growing sense among parts of the Moscow elite that a catastrophe may be approaching. 📌There is a strong and growing expectation that significant changes lie ahead. There is little understanding on what form they will take, who will drive them, or how fast they may begin. However, there is an increasingly widespread belief that, if the current war of attrition continues, Russia’s resources will come under growing strain, while the economy remains constrained and growing numbers of businesses become unviable. The overall conclusion is that two processes are unfolding at the same time: increasing external escalation and deepening internal contradictions. The West should be prepared for unexpected developments.

Tænk at det er kontroversielt, at Folkekirken i et kristent land stiller en præst til rådighed for medlemmerne af landets parlament. Vor herre bevares🙄

Stubb: 35,000 Russian soldiers killed per month won't end this war. Economic strain won't end it either. What ends it: the Russian population turning against it. Drones hit St. Petersburg and Moscow. Kids lose their summers in Crimea. Gas lines. Internet shutdowns. 1/

🧵Recently, I was given another lecture by another utterly predictable virtue-signaling member of “Euro-intelligentsia” about the end of America, Trump, America racism etc etc etc. Full disclosure: My entire professional career I have worked to strengthen transatlantic ties. 1/8

Merz’s total failure on the Baltic Sea. Sweden takes action—while Germany kowtows to Putin’s rust buckets! What a pathetic, dangerous failure by Chancellor Friedrich Merz! Since March 2026, Sweden has significantly tightened controls on the Russian shadow fleet, forcing the Russians to give the country a wide berth. Consequently, these dilapidated, uninsured, sanctions-busting Putin tankers simply shifted their routes closer to the German coast. Sweden regularly warns German authorities. And what does Merz’s government do? Nothing at all. No inspections. No seizures. The ships are simply allowed to sail on—31 tankers have even entered Germany’s 12-mile zone with impunity. This is not merely negligence; it is a direct violation of German sovereignty. These old scrap-heap tankers—which funnel billions into the war chest of the perverted dictator in Moscow—are ticking environmental time bombs. A single accident, and the Baltic Sea off Rügen, Usedom, or the Mecklenburg coast would be contaminated. Then there is the terror threat: espionage, preparations for sabotage, and potential for blackmail. During a visit to the Navy, Merz talks big about the "real threat posed by Russia"—yet simultaneously allows Putin’s shadow fleet to chug undisturbed through German territorial waters. Sweden shows how it’s done. Germany under Merz demonstrates only one thing: weakness, cowardice, and a total inability to defend its own interests and national security. Instead of acting decisively, the Chancellor allows Russia to bypass sanctions, exploit our waters, and make us look like a toothless tiger in the eyes of the world.