Alex Wice@AWice
As much as social media has devolved to people just shilling their bag endlessly, let me give my take as someone who has no horse in the race.
I agree with WhiteWhale that an event like 10/10 exposed yet again how shitty perpetual futures are. It relies on 24/7 liquidity which can't be promised, and when a dislocation happens, market participants well positioned have incentives to encourage liquidation cascades.
You can take the "standard view" that someone like Flood has argued, that everything is working as intended, that orderly liquidations are necessary for the operation and the health of the protocol, and maybe even that the newest generation of people that work at HL that are familiar with market making microstructures and how latency affects HFT and so on, know how to design perp products that are far more efficient. All that is true.
However, zooming out, the fact remains that perp, like almost everything else in crypto, has been a massive value extraction on crypto. Wipeouts like 10/10 are not a "design flaw", they are a feature that benefits those buying your liquidation. What makes this source of edge insidious is that it is not well understood by the player. Similar to martingaling - a lot of negative-EV is concentrated on 1% outcomes where you go bust, that are ignored or unknown to the player.
This becomes a "don't tap the glass" moment where once most realize how the game works (buy other people's liquidations), they simply seek to position themselves as the casino or advantaged party. But there are other ways for participants to buy and sell delta that don't result in huge liquidation blowups every few months. Again, people have not explored or created these options because it is far more lucrative to simply offer perp to a "mark" who doesn't understand the well-designed carnival game.
Back to perp, this is a product that similar to poker sites or casino sites, has so few winners. The PNLs are horrific, literally everyone is losing. In 2021 there were guys with heavy PNLs (myself probably most famously), and for better or worse the concept of being a successful and winning trader at perp, in the way that retail will play (ie. clicking longs on a browser - not farming funding or automated trading) was alive.
By 2025, casinos like Binance, even though they desperately want one, can't even find one decent poster boy to look the part of a winning punter. Their best KOL is James Wynn, a blathering, idiotic gambling addict who punts a 40x long on his $10k KOL check to get liquidated for the 50th time while spouting drivel like he is somehow a boss or even relevant.
This isn't sour grapes by the way. I've made plenty of money trading, then and post-FTX when I was forced to rebuild. I understand a lot about it. But at this point all of this shit needs to be called out as a giant extraction scheme and needs to go to hell. "CT" and even the broader social media ecosystem is slowly devolving into everyone trying to induce each other to gamble their life savings away. I'm not saying I'm any better. But we are on a road straight to hell.