Timothy Peterson

#bitcoin is the first money that requires no physical space to store it, no courier to carry it, no bookkeeper to count it, no auditor to check on it, no security guard to protect it, and no government to issue it.

@Barchart @hunvreus Profile checks out.

@hunvreus You have to be pretty thin skinned to think that a factual headline qualifies as "bashing." No opinions were given in our post.

Kind of lazy to bash a 25-year-old who graduated valedictorian from Columbia University at 19, was a core researcher on the Superalignment team at OpenAI, left and founded a $20 Billion hedge fund. Also got married. Again, at 25. Looks pretty impressive to me.

* poof * Bitcoin ETF fund flows evaporate bluroo ai

6/6 August is bad because capital is not deployed evenly throughout the year. It moves according to human and institutional calendars—tax schedules, reporting periods, performance reviews, budget cycles and portfolio rebalancing. When participants pause together, liquidity thins and risk capital leaves the market. Find out much more in The Bitcoin Investment Handbook.

5/ For Bitcoin, both August and September are absolutely bad. From 2011–2025, August averaged -0.64%, with a median return of -7.87%. August underperformed the other months in 12 of 15 years, with statistical significance. September was worse, averaging -4.86%. The notable positive Bitcoin Augusts were 2013, 2017 and 2021—extreme bull-market years. 2026 is not one of those years. Neither was 2025, when Bitcoin fell 6.4% in August. That throws more cold water on the calendar-year-based four-year-cycle theory.

1/6 Why do investors think August is bad? Because it is bad. This recent MarketWatch article calls it a myth. But to produce a positive August return, the author had to reach back more than 200 years—into the 1800s. August may have been great for 19th-century farmers. You are not one of them. You are a 21st-century information-age investor. Bitcoin Stocks Seasonality 🧵

"Why Bitcoin Dominates" was one of the best research papers I wrote. It is also the most underappreciated. Not only does it mathematically validate Metcalfe's law with statistical significance for multiple assets, it explains why nothing will 'flip' Bitcoin. Free research at SSRN

@StewArtVandelay This activity started 11 days before that attack.

@nsquaredvalue Isn’t this just people migrating their cold card funds?

Signs of Life The mempool transaction count spiked just this past week, ~10 days > 30,000. The mempool is a 'holding pen' for transactions when there are too many to process, given the 10-minute block-size limit. While not a huge backlog, and just a spike, it is more bullish than bearish and shows that Bitcoin is not dead.

@KobeissiLetter what is 'officially closed'? is that different from 'unofficially closed"?

BREAKING: The U.S. and Israel are preparing to bombard Iranian energy-related targets as soon as this weekend, per CBS News. Markets are officially closed for the weekend.

August: 3rd best month of the year for gold.

216,000 suckers think this guy knows what he's doing.

Metcalfe Ratio tells you if Bitcoin is over or under-valued relative to network size and activity; a measure of magnitude. Batting average tells you the percentage of recent months that have been positive; a measure of frequency. Together they form a picture of Bitcoin's cycles. bluroo ai

I can't believe OpenAI named their models Terra/Luna. Did they learn nothing?

Bitcoin then and now: I've updated the 2020 chart to today's estimated rankings. Bitcoin has lapped the Yen and Rupee and is closing in on the Euro, which has fallen from 3rd to 5th. You can see why the European Central Bank is so anti-Bitcoin. Once Bitcoin surpasses the Euro, the Euro will simply be another currency on the periphery of the global economy.