Simon Finkelstein

BREAKING: President Trump calls on Fed Chair Powell to cut interest rates today, before the next Fed meeting.

👋SPRING STATEMENT PRIMER. CX will claim today that decisions she's taken on public finances means UK more able to navigate external shocks as she delivers Spring forecast against backdrop of conflict in Iran, spiralling energy prices and huge economic uncertainty. Told the CX will nod to the conflict and knock-on effects, but won’t say too much in the HoC today given that it’s unclear how long conflict will go for and how that will hit energy prices. There will be of course Qs on the hole in the defence Budget and opposition MPs will be asking her not to press ahead if increases to fuel duty from this September. For the Chancellor’s part, Reeves will want to show that, against the backdrop of global uncertainty, her decision to build her headroom and cut energy bills in last controversial Budget were the right ones, and she is expected to argue that the govt has a clear plan to cut cost of living, cut borrowing and growth the economy. The CX wants to hold just one fiscal event this year - the autumn Budget, and so this Spring Statement, setting our new forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility, will not set out any new policies or tax changes. But policy changes since the Budget - the u-turns on family farm tax and business rates and the £3.5bn on special education needs spending is expected to be absorbed into the CX’s headroom, which stood at £21.7bn at the Budget (OBR is not longer giving a formal assessment but analysts will be able to work it out from current Budget and public debt. Her fiscal rule is to bring current budget, excluding investment, into surplus by 2029-20). . As for the forecasts, there will be light and shade. The Chancellor will highlight falling interest rates and inflation, which is dropping faster-than-expected. Her opponents likely to seize on growth cuts and rising unemployment On Growth, the OBR likely to cut growth from the 1.4 per cent predicted in Nov as recent official data came in below expectations. CX will prob said she will beat the forecasts, she is also planning to give a speech later in March on how she is going to go further on growth - more planning reform - and will nod to some of those reforms in her speech today. Another area of difficultly is unemployment, which was predicted to come in at 4.9 per cent his year, but Bank of England forecast stood at 5.3 per cent in Feb. Youth unemployment big issue. CX will have more to say on that later today But today will be all about the CX saying she has the right plan, which matters all the more as those on her benches look to the Gorton & Denton by-election and ask whether the govt needs to take further to the left on economic policy to take on the Greens as the party of progressive politics - the poll out today putting the Greens in second place behind Reform will only rattle already frayed nerves. We will have all the coverage for you from midday on Sky News.

I’d venture there would a 50bp additional Gilt spread if this were to represent the change in Labour leadership. Widely seen as the single biggest barrier to growth and to a lower cost of living from this government.

First member of the 2024 intake to make the shadow cabinet - though he’s a veteran political operator as a product of the legendary CRD

President Trump announces on social media that the United States has captured Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan dictator, and that he and his wife are being flown out of the country.

BREAKING: I understand the government is soon to announce the IHT threshold allowance will rise from £1m to £2.5m, so family farms will be spared. If there is a spouse the limit rises to £5m - that’s on top of the spousal transfer change announcement from the Budget

💥💥💥 BREAKING 💥💥💥 Keir Starmer's allies have accused Wes Streeting of plotting to oust him from office, warning that any attempt to do so would trigger a market shock — as supporters of Streeting go to war with No10. The extraordinary developments in a series of furious briefings to media outlets tonight signal Downing Street is increasingly concerned the PM may face a leadership challenge. Cabinet unity has fractured, possibly to the point of no return between Starmer and Streeting. A spokesperson for Streeting said: “These claims are categorically untrue. Wes’s focus has entirely been on cutting waiting lists for the first time in 15 years, recruiting 2,500 more GPs, and rebuilding the NHS that saved his life.” A government source said: “Number Ten has gone into full bunker mode, turning on their most loyal cabinet members for absolutely no reason. Unfortunately there is a pattern of Keir's team briefing against his own people- they did it to Angela, Lisa, Lucy, now it's Wes's turn. A circular firing squad won’t help the government out of the hole we’re in." But a supporter of Starmer says tonight that they conducted a recent exercise with investors where they were told that any alternative to Starmer and Rachel Reeves would result in a significant rise in gilt yields, meaning higher government borrowing costs. That would be ruinous for the public finances and plunge the UK into an economic crisis, the person added, a clear indication that No10 is seriously concerned about a leadership plot.

“THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY!” - President Donald J. Trump

Professor Michael Ben-Gad gives a lesson on standing up to thugs.