Finno
481 posts


/ Market Outlook
1. Macro optimistic (macro cycle isn't over imo)
2. When bottom?
(1/5)

CryptoAmsterdam@damskotrades
/ Market outlook BTC breaks a key level. 1. Staying medium-term cautious 2. When risk-on again? 3. Staying macro optimistic 4. Two Altcoins I'm watching (1/8) 👇
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@FinnoFi How does “Supported creator-led projects through community engagement and content creation” sound?
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Fun fact:
$PUMP has made more in fees than $HYPE for 8 out of the last 12 months.
So far in January, Pump has generated $94m in fees vs Hyperliquid at $62m
At $1b marketcap vs $9.5b, $PUMP is undervalued imo
Finno@FinnoFi
Longed $PUMP here. Thesis: - Pump reclaimed range low - Pump avg weekly buybacks rival Hype's while trading at 1/7th the market cap - In the last month, buybacks have increased steadily each week from 5.9m - 9.6m gl to me
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@izebel_eth I'm a casual trader but my feelings are:
- I prefer HL's UI, just looks nicer imo
- HL currently has more spot + equity assets
- I'm more bullish on future rewards from using HL than Lighter
- I like paying 0 fees on Lighter, but the above 3 points are enough to keep me on HL
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@izebel_eth For $HYPE it's very clear that if volumes and revenue go up the token will benefit via clearly defined buybacks - 97%+ of fees.
For $LIT I am less sure why I'd care to own the token.
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here is what i am looking at for lighter
hl saw daily volume grow post tge from a base of ~1bn to 2-4bn, all organic
lighter has seen volumes come in from 10bn+ to finding its base ~2-4bn again, the same
this is the answer to "how much volume is organic" and while its below the aster-induced october fever highs, its real, and i think its share of perp dex volume will continue to rise from this point (along with hl) as ppl favor immediate economics and liquidity vs future economics
i think thinking about revenue is good, focusing too much on it misses that perps are a land grab and trading revenue for market share is a longterm winning strategy
what is very different this time is the rest of the mkt, q4 2024 was peak capital expansion, rn ex-mayors are rugging for 3m
it helps if your thesis is not validated/invalidated by price - my thesis is that:
1. perp exchange pie continues growing despite the october aster blowoff top
2. hl + lighter are the dominant clob duo that will continue to seperate from the pack


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@Innerdevcrypto in the nuclear age a shark eat shark world is not a wise path
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On geopolitics & state of the (external) world:
- now a true shark-eat-shark world, law of the strongest is only thing that matters and actually has ever only mattered
- us re-asserting dominance in its western hemisphere and taking countries/toppling governments they do not like, basically a green light for china to do the same. Would not be surprised Trump will not intervene if China does take Taiwan
- EU does not understand any of this, lives in total denial about the illusion of international law, economic strength, ai, fairness, overregulation etc. Within 5 to 10 years whole continent is irrelevant economically due to total dominance in robotics and ai by usa and China
I am not saying this is a ¨nicer¨ world, or it is ¨better¨ like this. This is simply reality (on the outside)
And no..... i am not an emotionally detached asshole who does not give a shit about anything. I care...by not caring and not letting it emotionally destabilize me....and facing reality head on, how do you think i manage to keep up answering so many messages of pain. Emotional detachment gives enormous strength plus compassion as well.
Personally i see it as a new season in the show of human history on the exciting display of consciousness.
Looking forward to the next episodes in the shark eat shark world we currently live in
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@ColdBloodShill do you have a coherent thesis or just trying to manifest?
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20% chance before June?
We’re going to be $145k in March.
Kalshi Traders@KalshiTrade
BREAKING: 20% chance Bitcoin hits $150K before June 2026
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hey fuckface
i mint a new tail position with $1
1c yes 99c no
i then sell my 1c yes share to someone else (for .5c, 1c, 2c, who cares)
that second transaction has no 99c leg, the volume traded is 2c, but polymarket/kalshi will report $2 of traded volume
50 Pence@polyint
Wow, you glue eating retard, that means someone else bet 99c against you.
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@Crypto_Chase most don't realize it's the first half of Q4 that's bullish - almost never the second half.
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