Jack Straw

@atelicinvest Doomer boomer

guys, it really feels like feb 2020

@compoundpapi @CodeineandCDs Interesting. Yeah at least in the small caps, “TB will come in and buy it” is ALWAYS used as some kind of downside valuation protection for public investors. Ppl won’t admit it but it’s in the back of everyone’s mind. That goes out the window now. Requires u to pay lower multiple

@compoundpapi I’d agree. Are you hearing this from any credit ppl?

@compoundpapi This is a good point

@compoundpapi About 12/10

@atelicinvest Most popular Q but still an extremely unpopular view, at least among most software/value/quality people.

This is literally the most popular q right now lmao

@atelicinvest What do u think the chances are they get you

Oh noes They got Ben too.

@compoundpapi Ya I’m just playin

@atelicinvest lol. “Big dip buyers” versus just ordinary dip buyers made me laugh

@FintwitFella i've talked to multiple people that would be big dip buyers who are holding off on buying the dip because "what if they're right" there are no atheists in foxholes.

@compoundpapi Maybe Jagmeet was right 😔

@atelicinvest Those aren’t the people pricing the stocks

I do get a kick out of how much of an expression of Dunning Krueger this whole thing is. Literally anyone that's got any knowledge of software engineering, software companies, the buying environment, or enterprises in general - including buyers of software - are saying "dafuq are you talking about?" Against this we have people that tried vibe coding for 0 minutes to 10 hours going "holy fuck SaaS is dead" Any any attempt to provide reasoning is met with "oh yeah all the newspaper / cable guys said all the same shit all the way down bro. This is it man. You just don't understand exponentials" lmao.

@TMTLongShort @bucketshopcap Well said

@bucketshopcap Correct. We are paid to look at five years out. IT buyers are not.

This is what I disagree with- IT buyers simply react based on info they have today. No one knows what the landscape will look 3-5 years from now given the current pace of innovation. This is what the mkt is saying, nothing to do w/ current state of budgets, etc…

@compoundpapi Great point

@atelicinvest You really think the worlds ending don’t u

Ok one last human slop from me and I'll quiet down for a few hours. One of my strongest beliefs is that you need to have the right core predictions on what kind of environment you will face over the next decade. Or at the very least - not have a very wrong one. Many investors spent the 2010s+ thinking that stimulus was going to be short lived, and/or there'll be disastrous inflation. Some believed this so strongly that they started to become conspiracy theorists about CPI / GDP etc. Combine this with beliefs about the Dot Com bubble / bust - and that basically drove like 70% of your returns in the 2010s. For a lot of us (this is investing - there are always exceptions) - your beliefs and predictions about AI and how it develops over the next 10 years is absolutely going to be one of the key drivers of how well you do. What is already possible? What is on the cusp of being possible? What is difficult, but likely to be solved in next 3 years? What is truly impossible? Getting these right seem more important than ever.

@P_Remarks @JigsawCap “But the LT is made up of short terms” - well if you think like that and you’re playing the ST game, then structure has changed and you’re behind and you’ll lose if ur not playing MM’s game. But if you have the capital base to ignore ST and play LT, things have not changed

@P_Remarks @JigsawCap Over long time horizon mkt structure has not materially changed. Over short time horizon it has due to MMs. Probably for the worse. But either you outperform over the long term or you don’t. Not sure what’s controversial about that or not

I really hate the MM changing the landscape, market broken, etc convo Things aren't THAT different -- stocks still follow EPS over time -- a few squiggles along the way are different Essentially, people just upset they don't understand the random walk like they thought they did

@compoundpapi You have a lot of hot takes but this might be at the top of the list

@ChairliftCap Truly hit the nail on the head with this one

The key to success is to find a rich guy that likes you and is cool with sharing his wealth

@atelicinvest Where do you fall on the debate?

@FintwitFella I think many are arguing it's not a big deal to the revenue line

I absolutely love how not a single software bull is out here saying " yeah ok maybe we shouldn't have held onto this at 40x PE. I made the mistake of being too confident last year"

@atelicinvest Short term i agree, LT hard to see how this isn’t a paradigm shift. Hence the repricing of terminal value, to put it in the terms of a DCF monkey