Jigsaw

@OnodaCapital Isn’t it 4x? 50% discount, 2x

Can Eugene Fama explain to me why SKHY trades at like 2x the value of SK Square

@phoenixvalue I mean it’s fun in America… But I went to college with an Australian that did it with only a knife — he’d let the boar charge him then jump out of the way and get him with his knife

@TMTLongShort Now you want to turn public schools into Bridgewater? Bro…

Why are public school classrooms not being default recorded. Let parents search a transcript database of what a teacher has taught their children over the course of a year. The first step to solving the problem is bringing the indoctrination camps into the sunlight.

@rev_cap I’m still a believer in more use of QE/QT vs just FFR to control financial conditions, but yeah… tighter seems like the obvious direction towards equilibrium today

@TMTLongShort Alpha school is like $70K/yr in NYC bro… the NJ trade off isn’t about unruly students in public school lol

Having kids is so dam expensive and it’s all downstream of us tolerating a handful of disruptive kids in classrooms in urban centers. Long alpha school. Long parent accountability. Short teachers unions.

@TMTLongShort But also, it’s the age of the generalist

The more quickly AI permeates the broader economy the higher the return on broadening your circle of competency as a tech investor. Maybe this is just my looking for an excuse to stay curious but having a basic understanding of geopol, industrials, commodities and financials paid off handsomely in the last few years despite my background having been entirely covering tech. I think similar overlap will become increasingly prevalent in areas like bio where far more TAM will be opened up vs IT budgets. To be clear this is not me saying this is the age of generalists. I’m saying first know tech deeper than anyone. But then force yourself to acquire range beyond the narrow silos most platforms force you in to.

@CuiBonoCapital To be fair, I think lakes are more American than oceans, but it’s all good

Happy 250th, Patriots. Drink beers. Fire up the grill. Dive in the ocean. Watch fireworks. Get outside. Be American. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸✌️✌️✌️

@ChairliftCap @OnodaCapital Robots better at monetizing it now imo. I think market still tells you stuff, but daily vol is more disorienting + things go further out of whack than they used to. As always, market keeps evolving, for better or worse.

@OnodaCapital I can't keep track of what the market is saying let alone interpret it in such a way that I can monetize a view

We have jumped the shark on narrative forming and reality distortion. It is extremely difficult to know what is real and what's not. The map and the territory have merged In the long-term, this should have broader impacts on things like discount rates and equity risk premiums

@PythiaR Are you talking about the accelerators or the CSPs?

At some point every commodity thesis transforms from "price go up" to "low multiple capital return" and I've never seen the latter one work very well.

The bikers in Central Park are worse…

@WaterworldCapi1 Yeah, the 2024-26 spend is worth a lot at rev/GW we likely see in 2027+, but the 2027+ ROIC is probably good enough to justify it imo (but I'm biased / a bull) The issue is people already assume overbuild, and the numbers are about to be staggering

@JigsawCap Hard for me to gauge what's in the price of the CSPs. One thought is if there is big inflation in building compute, the value of existing deployed compute should go up considerably.

@P_Remarks Hasn’t MU outperformed AMZN L20Y?

@P_Remarks Network effects

@IdleLightkeeper Like everything with golf… it’s just a bunch of dudes who simply love being really lazy

@WaterworldCapi1 What if people just realize that hypers are going to make so much money still even at these memory prices…

No matter how much complaining or rationalizing you do if you're long the hyperscalers the memory market has no quick fix. New supply doesn't ramp till middle of next year. Hyperscalers aren't going to cut cap-x in the middle of the year they literally can't. No cure short term

@dalibali2 MS has some indices — EPCs, power, etc

What index best represents the AI infra factor?

@ChairliftCap That’s a hard bias to fight! Usually takes a hours for me to let that instinct subside before I start questioning my priors

The lamest guy in investing is the mega bull on something that has crushed it who acts marginalized the second his bullish view is even slightly questioned or not fully embraced by others

@viggy_krishnan @evrgn11112231 @rev_cap I think this will go down as a pretty big win for hypers — worst case off the table. They guaranteed that they don’t have to price gouge end customers to make ROI math work, and I assume they are not worried about demand N4Y. Even more advantaged cost structure vs neos ST prob.

@rev_cap That’s not the takeaway on fundamentals from this print imo