Joel

@stevehou First sentence checks out. You're a real pro.

I don’t know anything about oil. The one lesson I learned from 2022 was whenever oil folks start talking about “paper vs physical markets” or “paper market getting it all wrong” that it’s time to run as far away from oil as I can and take comfort that the worst is basically over.

@NickTimiraos Page 2 footnote: "Our analysis focuses on rising oil and gasoline prices as the most immediate effect of the war. It does not incorporate the impact of rising prices for fertilizer, aluminum, and natural gas or the supply chain disruptions in global shipping."

Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz The DSGE model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per barrel depending on the length of the closure "If the closure is over after one quarter, the effect on core inflation reaches 0.8 percentage points at an annualized rate in April 2026, followed by oscillating responses of diminishing amplitude. At the other extreme, if the closure persists for three quarters, the effect on core PCE inflation remains positive for the remainder of 2026, reaching as high as 0.8 percentage points as late as September 2026." dallasfed.org/~/media/docume…

@SwiftMacro @DarioCpx "If flows normalize like they did during the ceasefire" what?

“All-time high” makes for a great headline, but it’s not accurate in real terms. We’re at ~$149 now, but the true benchmark is ~$147 in 2008, which is over $200 today. Still not a real high. If flows normalize like they did during the ceasefire, this unwinds faster than most expect.

North Sea Crude spot price just hit a new ALL TIME HIGH at ~149$ above 2008 peak ⚠️ Whoever is persisting in suppressing oil future prices to the current asinine low level is manufacturing the biggest volatility time bomb right in the heart of financial markets

@UAPWatchers I think there were two of those and I also think that the background is the ocean.

🚨What was this during Artemis II Re-entry?

@Doomsday10tac2 @HardKnuckleHead @steve_hanke @PeterSchiff Job openings (JOLTS) data is... best left undiscussed. There's better data. x.com/SoquelCreek/st…

@HardKnuckleHead @steve_hanke @PeterSchiff You think Covid destroyed it? 🤣🤣🤣 The country that has the global reserve currency is REQUIRED to destroy its manufacturing because it HAS to import more than it exports, in order to get those currency units out to the world. It’s called The Triffin Dilemma.

Trump said his tariffs would bring blue-collar jobs BACK TO THE US. Instead, it’s raised costs and DESTROYED MANUFACTURING JOBS. The US LOST 150,000 manufacturing and construction jobs last year.

@SamAsIAm Wonderful Pistachios & Almonds Wonderful Halos (mandarins/clementines) POM Wonderful FIJI Water Wonderful Seedless Lemons Teleflora (flower delivery/gifts) Others: JUSTIN Wines, Landmark Wines, Lewis Cellars wines, and JNSQ (premium water brand)

FUCK RESNICK'S PISS-TACHIOS. World wide boycott. They're water pirates and major Ziopsychos.

@SoquelCreek @steve_hanke Yes, feel free to take a stab at it if you want though. And thank you for the FRED chart.

@Firstname_Joel @steve_hanke I assume that your question is for @Steve_Hanke?

@SoquelCreek @steve_hanke Why the JOLTS chart instead of this one?

@steve_hanke Sadly, the downward trajectory in manufacturing employment in the USA has been ongoing since late 2022.

@amlivemon How many days of current status quo until it is a problem?

Oil doomers sound smart and then you step back and reslize all of lost supply thru straight of Hormuz was on 5 days of global supply . Lol

@ElCaballo212 @PhilWhittlesee @KobeissiLetter If those days do overlap it'd be the single most consequential day in history by orders of magnitude. You can argue it's unlikely but that's it.

Kill all the Iranians = no, but it won’t be pleasant after we hit the infrastructure Kill the Global Economy = we just sailed a destroyer through the straits untouched, opening the straits can happen by force or by further destruction Iranian capabilities. Drop GDP by 30% = ours??? Not likely friendo. Not with WTC at 100< a barrel Starve out several billion = well now that’s just a stretch of the imagination. — It probably sounded good when you typed it.

BREAKING: Iran has formally submitted its four "red lines" for peace talks with the US today, per Iranian state TV: 1. Authority over the Strait of Hormuz 2. Payment of war reparations 3. Unfreezing of all blocked Iranian financial assets 4. Securing a comprehensive regional ceasefire In-person negotiations are ongoing as we speak.

@KitKlarenberg Yeah but it's been deeply unserious in a dark way from the jump (see Minab). The risk calcs currently and have always pointed to stated goals being bs. Gulf infra risk has been downplayed in a big way. China sulfric acid export ban now too.

For everyone dooming after the ceasefire debacle, it is not only legitimate for Iran to stipulate all this, but realistic from an escalation perspective. The US cannot continue the war in any serious way and it's already been a crushing defeat on multiple fronts.

@AlanRMacLeod 5th gen warfare. Tip of the iceberg too. Prob illegal in a lot of places.

So the BBC doesn't?

@greek_kat @OlgaBazova Many suspiciously bad decisions have been made. To put it lightly.

@Firstname_Joel @OlgaBazova Europe, which depends almost 100% on other countries for its energy supplies, and Russia, which is 100% independent on energy and a great exporter of it, are on the same boat!! Does this seem rational to you?!

There are only 8-10 days of aviation fuel reserves left in Europe, — Corriere della Sera ▪️The situation with aviation fuel in Europe is more critical than previously reported. ▪️Only two countries have 90-day emergency kerosene reserves, while most will not survive a crisis lasting more than 30 days, some countries have reserves for 8-10 days. ▪️The authorities are keeping silent about the problem, Brussels is hoping for a truce between the USA and Iran, which will allow the resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. ▪️ Europe imports 43% of its annual aviation fuel needs from the Persian Gulf.

@KitKlarenberg This could be a preparing to run out of fuel thing too.

After decades of delusional rhetoric and policies, talking insanely tough while its military decays and overextends, and using proxies like Ukraine, this is an indication Britain is going to attempt to *try* to still be able to fight a war. Significant. Buckle up.

@greek_kat @OlgaBazova They're in the same boat and have already stopped exporting.

@OlgaBazova Γονατιστοί θα τρέχουν στη Μόσχα... 🤨

@JonPaulBarEsco @vtchakarova Is the first word in your reply a typo?

@vtchakarova Defeating Russia will make more sense for Europe. Unless they truly believe unicorns live in Canada.

Another cascade will get activated. If you wonder how many they are - currently 10-12 at least.

@CuongNg82770590 @DickJoh22735841 @MichaelPBento How do you guys see the supply gap playing out?

@DickJoh22735841 @MichaelPBento Yes, bears sound smart but bulls make money, always.

I’ll say this much, I’ve never seen this many traders and analysts with a decade or more experience than me this confounded over what the price action is doing, or rather the how and why of it. My own gut is telling me something is very very wrong and this is the calm before the storm. I really hope I’m wrong, by when I get that spidey sense feeling it’s tends to be right more often than not.

@CRudinschi @tradeoilstocks How does the supply gap play out?

@tradeoilstocks Appreciate the sharp view on headline noise, real supply risks will matter more as markets price risk

The motherfucking Strait of Hormuz being shut is ignored, Russian and Saudi oil infrastructure ablaze is ignored, but a possible waiver extension on Russian oil that was already in the market causes oil to fall?

@SarcasmStardust @messedupfoods 0.0001% of servers expect 30pct...

@messedupfoods Cool. Then don’t go out to eat until the system is changed. Because continuing to go out and not tipping does nothing to the restaurant. All it does is hurt your server.

Oliver speaks for all of us.

@MatthewWielicki @McClellanOsc

@Firstname_Joel This is definitely something and I will hope to look into more and this would be a great data set to have to push back against some of the crazy chemtrail conspiracy ideas.

But there’s another piece people ignore… Modern aircraft are far more efficient. They burn fuel more cleanly and cruise at higher altitudes… right in the part of the atmosphere where temperatures are colder and humidity conditions are ideal for contrail formation. Contrails form when hot exhaust hits very cold air and water vapor condenses into ice crystals. The higher and colder you go, the easier it is for those trails to form and persist. So what you’re seeing isn’t something new or mysterious… It’s the combination of: More planes Higher cruising altitudes More efficient engines operating in colder air Same physics… just happening more often and under better conditions for visibility. Nothing unusual… just aviation and atmospheric science doing exactly what they’re supposed to do.