Web3Alan
3.2K posts
@Fish_Yeung
// 廣東話🇭🇰//日本語//中文//Web3 雜工// 歡迎合作 #BTC ᛤ Degen $DOG 🐕🚀🌕holder
【ビットコイン】 東京の取引仲介会社マウントゴックスが破綻した直後に買い、今に売れば 400ドル台→現在568ドル 単純計算1枚に168ドルの儲けだ。 つまり20枚も買っとけば2ヶ月で凡そ37万円プラス。 リスクとチャンスは表裏一体
Gm to the Sol Trophy Tomato community. Its almost at 1500 people. This is WILD! Let me attempt to explain where the claude+sol project is going because there is a LOT going on here. So firstly- Before I even germinated the seed, before the coin, my plan for this was to use this as a study- and apply what I learned here, and build an even BIGGER version. A full growroom. I have been building AI harnesses for the last year- (Think of an AI harness like a cockpit for an AI) and integrating them into physical processes. So where is this going? Well- the fees from this coin** are actively being utilized to build out a new grow room. A total of 34 plants. This will be the testing bed. I have plumbers and electricians coming out Monday to bring the lines to the room- Im also meeting with @standardbots to see about getting a trainable robotic arm to teach it to prune and pick tomatoes. So that if all goes according to plan- by the time we have a 🍅 from Sol we'll also have a proof of concept AI managed grow room kicking off. AND an arm claude can use to interact with his enviornment. Its ambitious but i think it can be done. The fees from this project have been a blessing. Its incredible to me that people can speculate and fund someones vision like this. I NEVER imagined this. If you read this far because of your interest in the project, and NOT into crypto- I don't think it bears repeating, but you're not obligated to support this project by buying this coin.
微策略 DAT 超槓桿買 BTC 很快暴雷？ 為什麼中文區好像沒有在 𝕏 分享過？可能是我錯過了？ 我整理好所有底層邏輯，先來個結論：Strategy 做 DAT 不是沒有風險，而是沒有大家想像中那麼容易死掉！當你真正看懂來龍去脈之後，對整件事的理解很可能會被徹底刷新 最常見問題：如果 Bitcoin 發生黑天鵝，MicroStrategy 會不會直接爆掉？ 我們先搞清楚一件事，什麼叫暴雷？ 本質上就是資產負債表撐不住的流動性危機。對 @MicroStrategy 來說，只要能在債務到期前持續有足夠現金流入，公司就不會出現真正意義上的暴雷 而且它本身是有實際營運業務和穩定現金流的公司，所以 Strategy 發生暴雷的機率其實是偏低的，當然沒有人會說是零風險，如果硬要說的話，其實任何使用槓桿的機構理論上都存在風險⋯⋯ 那與其只討論 Strategy 會不會爆 不如理性一點去看它的防護機制是什麼 這樣才是客觀分析啊 Strategy 現在具體有哪些防護機制？為什麼即使 BTC 價格真的大幅下跌，Strategy 也不會那麼容易被迫賣幣？ 1️⃣ 目前持有約 650,000 顆 $BTC （市值約 580 億美元）這件事，和公司市值本身其實是兩個不同維度的概念 比特幣是列在資產負債表中的 Non-current Asset 非流動資產，這不等同於流動性不足，所以我其實一直不太認同那種「持有 BTC 的價值大過 Market Cap 就代表很危險」的說法，這在會計邏輯上並不成立 2️⃣ Strategy 買比特幣的主要資金來源是「可轉債 + 長年期企業債」，而不是高槓桿的短期借貸，更沒有傳統意義上的保證金追繳機制 也就是說，不管 BTC 跌到多少，都不會因為價格波動而被強制平倉，這一點和散戶開合約是完全不同的風險結構 3️⃣ 目前現金儲備約為 1.44 億美元，足以支付約 21 個月的股息，再加上主要債務最早要到 2027 年 2 月才會到期 也就是說，就算 BTC 跌破 74K 的持倉成本，公司依然有足夠現金流去支應利息與營運開支 只要不是發生極端到足以影響還債能力的狀況，理論上這些 BTC 是可以長期放著不賣的 我昨天在下方引文也提過，只要 BTC 每年年化漲幅有 1.36%，光是這個漲幅就已經足以覆蓋股息支出了 —————————— 我絕對同意 「mNAV < 1 是危險訊號」這個說法是正確的，但我個人認為真正會逼到 Strategy 出現賣幣壓力，並不只是 BTC 下跌或單純 mNAV 低於 1 而是下面 4 種極端狀況（必須同時發生），單一條件（例如 BTC 暴跌）本身並不足以迫使 Strategy 拋售比特幣，這一點一定要看清楚！ ❌ BTC 發生罕見但仍可接受的極端跌幅，例如 -60%，而且還必須長期橫盤 2–3 年以上 ❌ 公司現金流長期轉弱，連利息都無法穩定支付 ❌ 債務到期時，卻完全無法再融到新資金 ❌ 市場 mNAV 長期低於 1 只要這四個條件沒有「同時」發生，就算 BTC 真的出現黑天鵝，一路急跌回到 Strategy 目前 74k 持倉成本價格，Strategy 的狀態也比較像是在撐過一段艱難時期，而不是立刻爆掉 公司本身從來沒有對外宣稱自己是零風險，它真正傳達的重點是，在風控設計之下，被迫賣幣的機率是極低的 那到底在什麼情況下才真的會賣幣？這裡可以參考 @ABMedia_Crypto CC @NEtripleO 曾經報導過 CEO Phong Le 親口說過這個條件 「一旦公司 mNAV 長期小於 1，而且外部資本來源消失，無法增發也無法借貸，賣出部分 BTC 將成為維繫公司財務的最後手段。」 這段話其實正好完全對應到上面那 4 個條件，畢竟 mNAV 是市場反映出來的結果，除了 BTC 必須跌破持倉成本之外，還必須是長期持續大幅下跌的情境，Strategy 才會真正進入風險區，而這個風險區本身仍然不等於「直接暴雷」 最後總結一下重點 ✅ Strategy 最大的風險，不是 Bitcoin 單次出現黑天鵝，而是「長期資本市場與公司現金流環境惡化」，這才是真正需要盯緊的關鍵 ✅ 就算 BTC 跌 60%，只要短期內沒有大額債務到期，公司依然具備生存能力 ✅ Strategy 要從高風險變成真正暴雷，必須同時滿足上述 4 個極端條件 ✅ 如果你相信 BTC 會歸零，那 Strategy 當然一定會完蛋 ✅ 如果你只認為 BTC 是週期性回調，那 Strategy 的整個資本結構，本來就是設計成可以撐好幾年的 槓桿本身不是壞事，只要你理解機制原理，整件事就不會像你聽回來或是想像中那麼恐怖
BREAKING: U.S. M2 money supply just hit a new all-time high & Bitcoin always follows it. This chart is one of the biggest signals for crypto right now. US M2 money supply has quietly climbed back to $22.3 trillion, and the pace of expansion is now the fastest since mid-2022. This is the clearest sign that liquidity in the US financial system is turning again. And here’s why that matters: When M2 accelerates → risk assets rally. When M2 slows → crypto bleeds. Right now, M2 is accelerating. What’s driving this liquidity wave? The Fed is expected to keep cutting rates. Lower rates reduce borrowing costs and push capital into higher beta assets like BTC and alts. And that's not all. UBS expects the Fed to start buying ~$40B/month of T-bills in early 2026. This is basically early-stage QE. Not announced publicly, but the expectation is already forming among major institutions. If the Fed begins T-bill purchases on top of rate cuts, the liquidity impact will be massive. What does this mean for the dollar? A combination of: Higher M2, lower interest rates, balance sheet style operations will weaken the dollar over the next few quarters. A weaker dollar is historically one of the strongest drivers of: ⬩ Bitcoin breakouts ⬩ Altcoin expansions ⬩ Risk asset rallies This is why the next liquidity cycle is so important. Crypto reacts first when liquidity turns. In every major cycle: ⬩ 2016-17 liquidity expansion → Bull run ⬩ 2020-21 liquidity expansion → Bull run ⬩ 2026 liquidity expansion → Bull run ??? Most people look only at the price. Very few look at liquidity. But M2 tells the real story: ⬩ Liquidity is expanding again. ⬩ The market hasn’t priced it in. ⬩ Crypto benefits the most. This is one of the strongest macro setups Bitcoin and altcoins have had since the 2020-21 cycle.
TODAY WE ARE LAUNCHING $DOG STRATEGIC TREASURY! Starting immediately, 100% of the transaction fees we generate at Sats Terminal from each $DOG swap will be used to buy back $DOG The more community trades via Sats Terminal - the more $DOG we add to our treasury 👇
Polyinsiders has surpassed 1,000 followers on X and gained 100 Pro users in just 72 hours. Additionally: - We are nearing 500 general users. - Our Pro group participates in daily insightful discussions. - Beta testing for Signal v1.2 is live for Polyinsiders Pro members. - We have designed NFTs Batch 1, ready for our initial Pro users. - Development of v1.3 has partially begun. To celebrate, we are offering 3 x 20% discount codes for lifetime Pro membership on X. First-come, first-served. Link: moonpay.hel.io/pay/691507826e… Another 3 slots at 20% off. To enter: Follow + Like + RT + Comment We’ll DM the link to winners after 24 hours ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Polyinsiders 在72小时内，X 粉丝突破 1,000， Pro 会员破百啦！ 除此之外： - 标准版用户用户逼近 500 - Pro 社群每日高质量 Alpha 深聊，大家都在狠狠搞钱 - Signal v1.2 已对 Pro 开启内测 - 已完成第一批枚 NFT 设计，优先给首批 Pro 群用户 - v1.3 已部分开工，节奏稳步推进 庆祝福利 1：限量 3 枚「终身 Pro 会员」8 折折扣码，先到先得。 - 购买链接：moonpay.hel.io/pay/691507826e… 庆祝福利 2：再送 3 个 8 折名额，完成以下动作即可参与： - 关注 + 点赞 + 转发 + 评论 - 24 小时后我们会私信（DM）中奖者领取链接
山寨季来了 不过注意主线，不要圈内PVP 最强的标的是 $ICP AI应用、AI云、隐私、每一个都是可落地可用 后续期待大的APP去上面开发东西 有能力的速度去上面做应用 币圈抖音之类都可以做起来
