
Paulibär
6K posts

Paulibär
@FlashBozZ
crypto class of '17



$LPTH nearing $17 in pre - my first target of $16.88 might be hit in pre. I will have some out for sale there. I "loaded the boat" in this 8 day flag, buying at or below $14s and selling tranches near $15s. But each cycle of that revolving door, I built the position larger on the dips in the flag due to conviction into the name fundamentally. If it broke the flag I would have been disciplined and followed my rules, and sized down. But it didn't. So not only do I have my own loaded boat, I have a few other boats I brought along. Dot... dot... dot Normally I have 3-5 'tranches' in a position to sell off in pieces (and buy back on dips); $LPTH size is more like 12 so I'll be very actively trading it but still have a lot of things in the background - the Sep 26 calls are my 'trading vehicle' along with common - have had 28 LEAPs for a good while now in $9-$10 range and added 27 LEAPs in that range last week when it dipped into upper $13s to $14. The latter 2 won't be sold anytime soon. Maybe if NGSRI hits next 60 days we can get a move like $ATOM - wouldn't that be nice. $UMAC will eventually do the same thing 'in time'. Not remotely close to doing that now based on chart.


$AXTI Short report: Permits denied. Bottleneck debunked. Insiders gone. Shareholders next. LESSON: JUST BECAUSE SOMETHING GOES UP. DOES NOT MAKE YOU RIGHT On the 24th of March $AXTI reached ATH and I predicted on that same day that it would eventually crash 50% at some point. It's now 7th of April and its down 42% since then. 1. LAST QUARTERLY REPORT I felt like I was in a fever dream. On the Q4 2025 earnings call, VP Timothy Bettles confirmed that export permits are being DENIED for the first time in the company's history. I felt like I was in a fever dream watching the stock continue to go up after this. "This is the first time we've actually received denials on permits and we're not utterly sure why. No transparency to this. We don't see any particular reason why any of these permits should not be approved." Management tried to spin it "they come with instructions to resubmit." But if resubmission was a formality, why did Q4 revenue miss consensus by 10.14%? Why did revenue DECLINE 8.2% YoY to $23.04M? Why did FY2025 revenue drop 11.1% to $88.3M with losses widening 81.7% to -$21.4M? If you follow critical metals, you know exactly where this is heading. Chinese tungsten exports are down 34% YoY with APT exports at literally ZERO in Jan-Feb 2026. Gallium restricted. Germanium restricted. Antimony restricted. Indium phosphide is on the same dual-use export control list. China is hoarding domestic supply of every strategic material. Why would anyone think InP permits are going to get BETTER when every other critical material is getting MORE restricted? The permits aren't coming back. The CEO knows it. 2. ANALYST B.RILEY AT THE OFC CONFERENCE Riley, March 18, after the Optical Fiber Communication Conference: "One major company denied the existence of an InP bottleneck. Another secured a 7-year supply agreement with Sumitomo, which is expected to scale capacity. These findings directly contradict AXTI's management narrative that Sumitomo would be unwilling to expand capacity to avoid aiding laser competitors like LITE." AXTI management told investors Sumitomo wouldn't expand. A hyperscaler just signed a 7-YEAR deal proving that was false. The entire $3B valuation was built on a scarcity story. The industry itself says it doesn't exist. 3. THE DILUTION — 50 MILLION NEW SHARES December 2025: AXTI raised $87M by issuing 7.1M shares at $12.25. April 2026: Board proposes increasing authorised shares from 70M to 120M. That's 50M additional shares up to $2B worth of potential dilution at recent prices. The proposal triggered a -14% selloff on the day it was announced. Shareholder vote is May 14. -> Dilute at $12.25 in December -> Stock runs to $70.88 -> Insiders dump $26M+ in March -> Request permission for 50M MORE shares This isn't a growth story. This is management extracting maximum value before the export permits dry up completely. If the vote passes May 14, that's confirmation the dilution machine is running and shareholders are funding management's exit. 4. THE INSIDER SELLING CEO Morris Young: - 125,893 shares sold March 9 ($4.6M) - 37,905 shares sold March 13 ($1.9M) - 30,832 shares sold March 10 ($1.4M) - Total: 159,536 shares, $6.9M dumped - 5-year track record: 11 transactions. 1 buy. 10 sells. CFO Gary Fischer: - 405,233 shares sold across March - Including 80,776 shares in a SINGLE DAY on March 13 - Total: $16.8M dumped Director Jesse Chen: Cut his direct stake sharply. $700K. Director David Chang: 40,000 shares, ~$1.5M. Total insider selling in March: over $26 MILLION. Total insider buying in March: ZERO. Total insider buying in 12 months: ZERO. These are the people who see the permit data before you do. They see the customer pipeline before you do. They know whether the bottleneck is real before you do. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM IS SELLING into their companies version of the World Cup (a bottleneck in the entire AI buildout). This is the reason I told people close to me to sell after the QR. Despite its price going up. Despite what Twitter thought. Despite what algos were doing. This is why you don't mindlessly follow the rules of the game. DYOR is here for a reason. The companies entire being is held by geo-politics.





$AAOI just officially announced (03/23) a new initial volume order totaling more than $53 million for its 800G single-mode data center transceivers. This $53 million order comes from the exact same major hyperscale customer that recently placed a massive $200 million volume order for AOI’s next-generation 1.6T transceivers. This dynamic perfectly validates AOI’s technological roadmap, proving that the transition to 1.6T does not kill 800G demand. Instead, hyperscalers are actively buying both generations concurrently to support massive GPU cluster buildups and manage their long-term operating costs, power efficiency, and cost per bit. Also, the delivery timeline for this $53 million order is extremely compressed. Shipments are expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026 and be entirely completed by the middle of the third quarter of 2026. CFO Stefan Murry explicitly categorized this as an “initial” order and the “first of more to come” as the customer scales its AI infrastructure across multiple regions. Considering AOI’s 800G revenue was under $4 million in Q4 2025, fulfilling a $53 million order in roughly a one-and-a-half-quarter window represents an explosive step-function increase in their near-term run rate. We like to see this! The more orders, the better. And the tight time frame really shows the belief in management that they can execute.






Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.







Really looking forward to $AAOI earnings on Thursday Will have full coverage of the call!




$LPTH holding in ok to start. It's a long day. Orange line will determine my future here with the near term calls. It's not a sterling chart obviously. But relative to most tech names (I consider it tech) it is better than a lot. If I am forced out of the near term exposure, I'll probably look to add to my 28 LEAPs on the big negative days which I am "DCA-ing".

















