Ciprian Ciurdea

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Ciprian Ciurdea

Ciprian Ciurdea

@Flux_Axiom

Incentives, misallocation, regime shifts Crypto • Macro • AI Anti-consensus research for operators & allocators Ex-VC doing the due diligence VCs won’t

Dracula Land / Globetrotter Katılım Ağustos 2017
875 Takip Edilen393 Takipçiler
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
[1/5] Everyone is waiting for crypto to 'mature.' They think we'll eventually get less volatility, more rational investing, and a market where good tech reliably wins. They are completely wrong 👇
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Zach Rynes | CLG
Zach Rynes | CLG@ChainLinkGod·
@coinflipcanada @nic_carter TerraUSD collapse was my original wake up call, feels like just yesterday…
Zach Rynes | CLG@ChainLinkGod

Yeah man crypto is the future, let me bring you up to speed First, TerraUSD collapsed, a massive Ponzi scheme where investors were promised 20% APR on their USD ($20B in UST and $40B in LUNA wiped out) This caused the largest crypto hedge fund to go insolvent due to excessive leverage, 3AC ($3B AUM wiped out) 3AC borrowed funds from all the largest crypto lenders, each of who went insolvent after bank runs inevitably occurred, causing a market wide credit crunch Celsius ($12B AUM, $1.2B deficit), Voyager ($1.6B AUM, ~$670M default), BlockFi ($3.9B AUM, $400M revolving credit) Voyager and BlockFi were bailed out by FTX/Alameda, but ah turns out they were complete fraud too With $10B of customer funds siphoned from FTX to cover Alameda’s losses, a bank run took place, creating a second contagion wave, leaving Voyager/BlockFi rekt again Genesis Lending, under the DCG conglomerate, also went bankrupt due to Alameda/FTX exposure ($3B shortfall) Gemini was lending $900M in customer funds to Genesis, so they and their customers inevitably got wrapped in the mess too No doubt TradFi is involved in this too, with the collapse of two banks that were key banking partners for crypto Silvergate (FTX’s banking partner and ran an payment network for crypto exchanges) experienced a bank run and collapsed after losing $1B on bonds While SVB (Circle’s banking partner for USDC and most tech startups) experienced a bank run and collapsed after losing $1.8B on bonds Not looking too good for Signature Bank either, which runs the ‘other’ bank payment network for crypto exchanges Can’t forget the SEC trying to strongarm the industry from shutting down Kraken’s staking product to calling Paxos’ stablecoins a security and shutting down BUSD, and much more Various banking regulators also strongarming banks into refusing to onboard crypto companies as clients, forcing them overseas and to use sketchy counterparts Anyways Have you heard of liquid staking derivatives and re-staking? Pretty cool financial engineering right there, crypto innovation never stops 💪

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Zach Rynes | CLG
Zach Rynes | CLG@ChainLinkGod·
Look guys, it's actually really straightforward, a bunch of people staked their ETH on the Ethereum blockchain to earn yield, except they didn't want their capital to be locked up, so they actually staked with a liquid staking protocol called Lido who provided them a liquid staking receipt token called stETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their stETH receipt tokens into a restaking protocol called Eigenlayer, except they didn't want to lock up their capital, so they actually restaked with a liquid restaking protocol called KelpDAO who provided them with a liquid restaking receipt token called rsETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their rsETH tokens into a lending protocol called Aave so that they could open a leveraged looping position that borrows ETH against the rsETH collateral and restakes the ETH into rsETH which is then deposited as collateral, except it turns out rsETH used a cross-chain bridge called LayerZero that was hacked by north koreans causing rsETH to become undercollateralized and now these looping positions are stuck and unprofitable, and everyone is pointing fingers at each other, and also DeFi is a very serious industry
Zach Rynes | CLG tweet media
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
@ChainLinkGod So it was basically greed that become greedier than the greediest greedster in the grid...and then it all blew up
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
It's "North Korea" ..again, of course! The honorable thing crypto founders should do is admit they are stupid and pivot into gardening. The "NK guys" are better at this stuff anyway and constantly eating their lunch, so why stay? ....unless?!?
GIF
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
@nic_carter An even more simplistical way of such conclusion is the fact that a human is unlikely not to touch his ever growing fortune that rose from zero to billions. No matter the conviction in the asset you would still sell some along the way even for charity
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
The big money is openly telling you the truth: if your token plumbing doesn't mechanically capture revenue and act as a real utility sink, they aren't touching it. You can build a great product, but if your token is a high-float extraction trap, you are fundamentally uninvestable. ​The market is officially done subsidizing bad incentive structures.
Jeff Dorman@jdorman81

x.com/i/article/2041…

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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
@mert What if everyone working in crypto is a NC operative? This would explain a lot of things
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mert
mert@mert·
pretty crazy if true tl:dr - hackers casually gained trust via irl conference meet, setup tg channel and became a customer, started building integrations over 6 months and then got one person with a testflight link to show off what they built
Drift@DriftProtocol

x.com/i/article/2040…

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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
MISTAKES HAPPENED FROM A WALLET I CONTROL! Whoever wrote this story put more effort in than the attack itself. Ofc, it's always the NC guys, they somehow escape the place, deliver the hit and come back home. The undefetead enemy of crypto that is both living in the "50 yet operates in the future.
Drift@DriftProtocol

x.com/i/article/2040…

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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
While everyone is screaming that $HYPE is a generational 10x from here, the math ain't mathing, sers! We are about to watch a violent, multi-year tug of war between massive token unlocks and actual protocol revenue. Expect this thing to chop retail to pieces between $20 and $80 and back. Sure, HYPE is going to survive because the network generates a shitton of real revenue and actually burns its own supply, all while functioning as a real utility sink. But your fav token offering that sweet, useless Governance Vote? Oh well, it will continue getting dumped by your fav VC and fav Team until vesting is finished and there is absolutely zero liquidity left. Capital is finally figuring out the joke. The market is done subsidizing bad plumbing.
Rand Group@randgroup

$HYPE loading for $100. Get ready ⚡️

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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
[4/5] Crypto won't mature into rational value investing. It will mature into faster, more efficient misallocation. The loops get tighter, not looser.
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
[1/5] Everyone is waiting for crypto to 'mature.' They think we'll eventually get less volatility, more rational investing, and a market where good tech reliably wins. They are completely wrong 👇
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
Just discovered this brilliant piece from Radigan. It's the exact structural contagion you need to understand right now. Monetary policy cannot print an LNG terminal. When kinetic war creates a supply side energy shock, corporate margins get crushed. The immediate second-order effect? Executives will ruthlessly accelerate AI deployment to replace white-collar labor, offsetting the rising cost of physical inputs with the collapsing cost of cognitive inputs. The physical world constraints are about to violently accelerate the digital transition. The Citrini future doesn't look that far fetched heh? 👇
Radigan Carter@radigancarter

x.com/i/article/2035…

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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
"Mistakes have been made from a wallet I control" Just another casual hack/exploit in DeFi land and yet another reason for why the 200th version of an $USD has no reason to exist. Since no actual punishment has been applied to these so called hack/exploits and since the persons writing the code know its vulnerabilities the best, there is quite an argument to be made that most of these were inside jobs. In such a case Extraction has limited downside and A LOT of upside. But sure...it was Lazarus!! Narrative forming "Stablecoins", with 2 very large, dominant players, a few (so called) decentralized versions + a myriad of copy cats, clones or outright scams. I want a croissant and a cappuccino do you guys accept @wyvsttksUSD++ ?? What is the exact need for these other than milk the token issuance to zero?
Resolv Labs@ResolvLabs

This notice is issued on behalf of Resolv Digital Assets Ltd. in relation to the Resolv protocol. Earlier today, a malicious actor gained unauthorized access to Resolv infrastructure through compromised private key, resulting in the minting of approximately $80M of uncollateralized USR. A full post-mortem is currently in progress and will be shared once completed. The incident was identified quickly, and the relevant smart contracts were promptly paused. Approximately 9M USR held by the attacker has since been burned in order to reduce the potential impact. The protocol currently holds approximately $141M in assets, with the only realized impact identified to date being approximately $0.5M in redemptions processed prior to the pause. Current USR supply consists of 102M pre-incident USR and approximately 71M newly and illicitly minted tokens. As an initial step in the recovery process, we are preparing to enable redemptions for all pre-incident USR, beginning with allowlisted users. The current target start date is 23 March 2026. Affected users should coordinate directly with RDAL through official channels. This incident resulted from unauthorized third-party actions, including a targeted infrastructure compromise and cyberattack. Resolv’s underlying collateral was not directly compromised. We are actively:  • tracing and seeking to contain illicitly minted USR and other affected assets  • coordinating with partners and counterparties  • working with law enforcement and onchain analytics firms to identify those responsible We will pursue all available avenues to recover assets and hold those responsible accountable. We strongly advise against trading USR or related Resolv tokens at this time while recovery measures are being implemented. Actions of users during post-exploit period may affect the recovery. Further updates regarding illicit USR, and RLP will be communicated in the near term.

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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
If your exit strategy is based on how much you're currently down, you aren't managing risk. You're negotiating with your ego.
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
@MisterSpread Cum se ajunge acolo? Ce facilitati sunt pe langa? Din pacate nu stim sa facem turism si/sau sa vindem experiente desi am avea o gramada de lucruri pe care sa le marketam.
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MisterSpread
MisterSpread@MisterSpread·
This is not Vietnam, this is not Thailand, this is a cave in Romania 🇷🇴. Visit #Romania ❤️
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
When the cost of capital eventually drops, money violently rotates into whatever asset provides the highest beta to fiat debasement. You don't need a PhD in interest rate swaps to survive a cycle. But you need to understand that when the global liquidity spigot inevitably turns back on, capital follows the path of least resistance.
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Luke Martin
Luke Martin@VentureCoinist·
the increasing focus on macro from every single crypto investor is déjà vu to what happened in 2021-22 >inflation numbers spiking late 2021 >Bitcoin steady decline in 2022 >everyone religiously watching Fed meetings for hints eventually whole timeline was convinced understanding macro was the key to timing the bottom... one of the loudest narratives was Bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge fast forward 6 months and none of it mattered as Bitcoin ripped higher for 3 years straight obviously it makes sense to keep up with what's happening in the world but don't fall for the "world is ending" stuff cycles are normal owning the best assets for a long time is how you win
Luke Martin tweet media
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
What if expecting a peak is the actual problem? You cannot build a durable system if the architecture requires a hysterical bull run just to keep the core team from walking away. When the parabola fails to materialize, the entire incentive structure instantly collapses. The founders who survive this quiet period aren't going to win by fighting harder for the next narrative spike. They will win by ripping out the extraction mechanics and formatting their systems to steadily compound, regardless of what the timeline is doing.
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Ciprian Ciurdea
Ciprian Ciurdea@Flux_Axiom·
We love romanticizing the struggle, but a massive chunk of this friction is completely self inflicted. The actual rot is at the incentive layer. The current design heavily favors rapid liquidity extraction over sustainable user retention. As long as that remains the dominant playbook, the reputation of the broader space is going to permanently flatline. Hence failure rate for crypto consumer apps is skyhigh mostly because "founders" are desperately injecting speculative tokens into loops that would run flawlessly on a standard, boring database. You cannot solve bad product design with aggressive financial engineering. If an app requires a token to be useful, it usually ends up with a trail of rekt users.
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vibhu
vibhu@vibhu·
Ok seriously, if you are building a game or any consumer app on @Solana or crypto, you are a true hero I’ve been where you are and I know how hard it is to build something off the mainstream in crypto The failure rate will be high but a single winner can change the industry 🫡
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