FNL Trades

SPY closed below the 200-day SMA 6 times in history. Every single time, it recovered. Here's every time it broke, what caused it, and the return after it crossed back above 200SMA again: 🔴 Sep 2000 – Apr 2003 (31 months) Dot-Com bubble burst. Trillions in overvalued tech stocks imploded. Drawdown: −49% | 1Y return after: +33% 🔴 Jan 2008 – Jun 2009 (17 months) Global Financial Crisis. Overleveraged banks, toxic mortgage debt collapsed. Drawdown: −57% | 1Y return after: +45% 🟡 Aug 2011 – Oct 2011 (3 months) US credit downgraded for the first time ever. Euro debt crisis erupted. Drawdown: −21% | 1Y return after: +27% 🟣 Feb 2020 – Jul 2020 (4.5 months) COVID-19 shut down the global economy overnight. Drawdown: −34% | 1Y return after: +43% 🔵 Jan 2022 – Feb 2023 (12.5 months) Fed hiked rates at the fastest pace in 40 years to kill inflation. Drawdown: −25% | 1Y return after: +26% 🟠 Feb 2025 – Mar 2025 (1.5 months) ← WE ARE HERE Tariff war shock rattled global markets. SPY hit $481. Drawdown: −31% | 1Y return after: +40% Avg 1Y return after crossing back above the 200SMA: +35% Episode 6 just triggered. The market has never NOT recovered. This time it will recover fast as soon as the WAR is over.