Fox Lake Capital

@ohcapideas Another huge knock on this type of analysis is I can’t think of a company that purposely underearns more than $COST. They could easily double profits by expanding GMs and increasing membership fees. Their entire long-term moat is they have the discipline not to do this.

The thing with $COST is it’s almost definitely being valued at both a low discount rate and with the expectation that their high growth rate is durable. At a 7% discount rate and assuming they can grow earnings 10% a year for a decade more before growth tails off, ~50x is actually a fair multiple. Not totally irrational assumptions by the market. But, who wants to sign up for a 7% return assuming continued world class execution for another ten years. Same assumptions but at a 10% return is something like a 27x multiple. So call it 25x is where maybe you start looking at Costco with some margin of safety. I would suspect that a re-rating of that magnitude would only happen quickly if we saw something like a spike in interest rates or questions about the durability of growth. You never know, but probably will be a long time before you can make any money here because the market knows really well what a great business it is.

@CDInewsletter If you look at MRG’s cashflow statement 2025 Cash flow from ops: 88m Capex: 71m FCF: 17m Capital return: 50m 2024 Cash flow from ops: 98m Capex: 59m Fcf 29m Capital return: $40M old properties with lots of capex.. driving really low FCF vs 1.15b market cap. What’s your view?

Morguard Residential might be the cheapest way to buy apartments in North America. EV: $2.6B No. of suites: 13,089 Cost per suite: $198.6k 59% of suites are located in the U.S., too, meaning you're paying ~$145k USD for each of those units. They rent for an average of $1900 per month. The 1% rule is alive and well with Morguard, and all without a single minute of active management. $MRG.un pays a generous 4.6% distribution and has grown the payout 7 of the last 10 years. FFO payout ratio was 42% in 2025, which is among the lowest in the sector. Management thinks shares are undervalued too, as evidenced by the buyback. At the end of 2022 there were 39.1M shares outstanding. Today? 34.9M. That's a 10.8% decline in just over 3 years. I mention MRG.un today because in less than a month shares have fallen more than 10%, going from almost $19 each to under $17. Not quite at a 52-week low, but getting there. $17 puts us at about 10x fwd. FFO, which I think is very cheap for a REIT with Morguard's reasonable leverage profile. So, in short, we have a REIT that: - Trades at a significant discount to peers using just about every metric - Has a conservative balance sheet - Is repurchasing shares - Has a nice record of distribution growth, with a low payout ratio - Has potential to eventually be taken private by the parent I'm interested in buying more, and will do a deeper dive sometime in April on the newsletter.

@compoundpapi Wow. Have a good source so I can read more about this

@CDInewsletter @Siriustoo Poor guys has conflated his politics for sound investing. Many such cases.

@Siriustoo I think I’ll just mute you instead

An update on my buddy Jim's portfolio, a plumber who retired with $3M in 2022. Portfolio just surpassed $4.1M and generates more than $150k annually. He spends about half his dividends (~$75k) and reinvests the other half. Recently added to his $SLF.to and $QSR.to positions.

@ebitdaddy90 Said otherwise, sadly lots of institutions made money in the SPAC boom of 2020-2022, and most of the money was lost by retail. There are more ethical ways to make money, but lots of institutions did just fine with this model, not surprised he could raise again 🤷‍♂️

@ebitdaddy90 It’s a SPAC. The shareholders get upside via equity and warrants if the transaction causes hype with retail bag holders and a put option at $10 if the deal sucks and the market doesn’t like it. The risk is having money tied up. It’s not as stupid of a bet as you think.

Who buys this and how do I get contact info? I am looking to raise funds and need room temperature IQ sponsors who are rich . This is a serious question - how does this guy raise money? Who is giving money for this?

@_Moon__Rider_ @chrislake You might want to read it again. I was complimenting Chris lol

@FoxLakeCapital @chrislake You just heard it now. What’s even your gripe, investor bro?

Re-confirming

@dbot__ That intro 👨‍🍳👨‍🍳

i don’t say this lightly but chris lake was gobsmacking

@SamB_46 Chris talked about this on his stream. The lazewo remix is resung, not Lola’s voice Same offer was given to Chris but he only wanted to release it with the original.

No disrespect to Lazewo I just think Chris Lake’s edit cleared it without a doubt

I’m still baffled that they gave Lazewo the official remix for Messy instead of Chris Lake

@P_Remarks @BearForce_Won I've noticed this too - does this almost imply less efficient markets, in the sense that narrative shifts are less gradual and more random?

@compoundpapi 👋🏻

@SamB_46 @chrislake discord.gg/8NtJPckU

@FoxLakeCapital @chrislake U got the link?

Hey @chrislake will there be merch at your Brooklyn Storehouse Album Release shows next month?

@Deathswap1 @compoundpapi Not so simple, unfortunately. The BC rollout has been a disaster. They incentivized walk-in --> family practice, with no focus on volume. The net impact is a far higher pay for physicians, who are seeing fewer patients. The lack of access is worse than ever in the province

@compoundpapi BC finally ripped the bandaid off and admitted that family doctors were too underpaid. So they bumped their salaries by 50% and *surprise* managed to fill ~1000 family doctor spots. Not surprisingly Alberta followed suite.

@DanishScout_ When can we discuss that Eriksen is no longer a viable set-piece taker?

@donmaterr @cristiangatti99 Is the messy remix out somewhere ?

@cristiangatti99 Adding to this list: Shakedown - At Night (Anyma & Layton Giordani Remix) Lola Young - Messy (Chris Lake Remix) Layton Giordani & Green Velvet - When It Kicks John Summit & Gorgon City - Is Everybody Having Fun?

•Savana by Chris Lake is one of the new releases of the week. Chris Lake never disappoints. Album of the year incoming. •Victory by HNTR is the other new release of the week. HNTR is one of the best producers out there right now. •Inhale / Exhale Remixed, Vol. 2 by Rufus Du Sol are the new remixes of the week. There are some great remixes on this compilation- Lately (Vintage Culture Remix), Break My Love (Samm Remix), & Music is Better (Jimi Jules Remix) all stand out. •Nothing Wrong by OMRI. is one of the underrated releases of the week. OMRI. just played one of my favorite sets of the year at Club Space. His sounds continue to standout to me and he should be on everyone’s radar. •Backup by Locklead is the other underrated release of the week. Like Chris Stussy, Locklead’s music takes you on a journey & tells a story. ‘Backup’ is the standout track. Other new releases to check out- •dEWdEWdEW (EP)- SLAMM •Sunday Afternoon- Lusid •WIND- Argy & Omiki •Losing My Mind- Seth Hills & DAMEN •Let’s Ride Away (MEDUZA for Tim Remix) [Ft. Elle King]- Avicii & MEDUZA •No Broke Boys- Disco Lines & Tinashe •Soul Brothers- Nicole Moudaber •United in Trance- HI-LO

@BuffaloBillCo Don’t forget their push to acquire insurers and have policyholders be bag holders!

The last 10 years of PE were really reflexivity in action. Fund flows chasing performance that then drove performance (which remarkably wasn’t even that good). Hopefully they can still exit to Retail through a bunch of shitty alt funds pushed by sleazy wealth managers though

Pretty remarkable how far we were able to take the idea you could just lever up shitcos with variable rate debt while charging 2/20 then sell them to the next fund. And how for the next 10 years that will remain the highest paying fake email job by far despite the performance

@TidefallCapital FFH implies BTI sold?