Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Q3 2021 Letter $FFH.to
tidefall.substack.com/p/q3-2021-lett…
English
Trevor Scott
26.9K posts
Trevor Scott
@TidefallCapital
No politics, sports or social tweets. Just investing. Tweets are not investment advice.
Toronto Katılım Mart 2011
1.2K Takip Edilen40.1K Takipçiler
$CSU.to
"Code is not the hard part. Selling software to a risk-averse institution, passing security/compliance reviews, integrating with legacy systems, training staff, and earning enough trust to become deeply embedded in workflows. That’s the hard part."
expansestocks.substack.com/p/constellatio…
English
@TheWiseIC this happens every year, it's an authorization not a tender.
English
$BAM $BAM.TO announces a 10% normal course issued bid (NCIB)!
That’s conviction.
English
@ErinDGreenfield Sounds good! That one was AI (it was me prompting chatGPT) but I think it's dead on. Other one was Burry but really it was Moody's. Some are from message boards and I don't want to attribute to somebody if they don't want it publicized and no answer my DM! I'll do better!
English
@TidefallCapital Sometime,,,, (maybe over a patio beer?) ,,, you can explain to me this widespread tendency on twitter to tweet out quotes without providing the source
English
"Western investors mispriced Chinese internet platforms as “Chinese Amazons/Googles.” But they never fully operated under US-style shareholder-maximization. Beijing treats them more as infrastructure, employment engines & consumer utilities—reshaping long-term margin potential."
English
@TidefallCapital Pretty simple - Temu growth went negative because US tariffs and deminimis loophole closed so economics no longer made sense.
English
$PDD Revenue growth rate
2023: 90%
2024: 59%
2025: 10%
What went wrong here? China is tough but that's a pretty fast collapse given Temu growth
It's under 5x PE 2026 with the cash removed now
English
@greedynofear to be fear the stock has lost half its value over 5 years so not the worst decision at least previously.
English
@TidefallCapital It’s cheap but PDD doesn’t care about shareholders — they don’t buy back stocks even at this level.
English
@rev_cap @viggy_krishnan what do you think of the argument that the market there is more focused on building society value rather than (and at the expense of) shareholder value. The longer this chart stays flat, the more I am open to the idea!
English
@viggy_krishnan Stimulate demand, reward
entrepreneurship, encourage mergers and consolidation, rip corporate profits, ignore inflation, full employment
Mandate oversupply, drive top down industry development, disappear your entrepreneurs, kill margins, drive deflation, mass unemployment
English
This Pearson investigation just crossed into genuinely disturbing territory.
A former RCMP investigator says employees flagged over alleged organized crime concerns were still able to keep restricted airport access passes.
That is an unbelievable allegation.
Shazi@ShaziGoalie
The most disturbing part of this Pearson investigation: It wasn’t just one alleged incident. The documentary describes repeated cases where airport workers allegedly linked to drug trafficking investigations still maintained airport access and security clearances. How many warning signs were allegedly ignored along the way?
English
@CatNyanpital tough environment but eps still doubled over the period
English
They used that cash for the merchant support which is why their cost of revenue has basically doubled from 2023. It’s the continuation of their 2024 support program with increased funding.
They even write “fulfillment fees and merchant support services” in the cost of revenues discussion.
So what is it? It’s a lot of fee transaction cuts, waiving delivery fees, and subsidies. They did the same thing when they were supporting agricultural initiatives in 2021.
English
@CatNyanpital why don't they use their cash to buyback stock?
English
They basically forced Temu through the wall with subsidies and crazy ads (remember the shop like a billionaire campaign). They turned that off.
Lots of macro headwinds too like the ending of the US tax provision made these economics no longer viable.
The numbers aren’t bad. You go from 100% growth on Temu to 9% bc all the easy markets are captured.
As for the engagement (the “annual active buyers”), the domestic market is already saturated and has 900M people. Ontop of that the economic slowdown caused Temu to lower take rates. You see this in their Q4 numbers where operating margins drop to like 24%.
Overall, it’s just PDD at the mature phase of its lifecycle. It’s an asset-lite retailing operation that is macro sensitive.
English
@viggy_krishnan yes china retail competition is insane and bytedance absolutely took growth off the table, that's probably the best single cause.
English
@EquityBrian The capital allocation is insane at least something like Tencent is buying back stock (worse valuation though)
English
@TidefallCapital They need to buyback stock and prove cash is real
English
@rja907 My favorite line after was from a shareholder who was a software engineer who said "how is this trading for a 7% fcf yield?"
To be fair, I also met a lot of share holders that were kind of agnostic on the meeting, 'we'll see how it goes', probably more that the stock is down 60%
English
@NuggetCapital These deals seem super sus and even if true is a massive military defeat.
English
Currie getting on X was the top, as predicted by the team at NCP. Thanks, Jeff.
The White House@WhiteHouse
🚨 "An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed..." - President Donald J. Trump
Canada 🇨🇦 English
@DrPaulyDeSantis @apsoccer76 you think he's making up moody's quotes? We already know about a ton of these deals with $META
English
@TidefallCapital @apsoccer76 Source: Trust me bro
English
"Moody’s found that the five major hyperscalers – Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle – together have $662 billion off-balance sheet commitments already. GAAP accounting lets them hide it."
English
@KingslayerCap @viggy_krishnan We need an update from @realsteveeisman on his pod! Bring back the moffett nathanson guys, they are great!
English
@viggy_krishnan @TidefallCapital The bet is FCF inflection happens quicker than BB sub declines. 2025 FCF was $5bn with $12bn capex that is stepping down to $8bn (+$4bn FCF). $9bn pro forma on a $20bn mkt cap with the company guiding positive EBITDA growth this year (not saying I believe that), but.....
English
Something is wrong with $CHTR here:
$20b market cap is too low
or
$25b FCF (including SBC) over the next 4 years is too high.
I have zero trust in Charter management, they've consistently disappointed.
English
People citing EBITDA for $SPCX ..
"The Company estimates broadband satellites to have a five-year useful life and the first generation mobile satellites to have a three-year useful life."
English