Fran

@AltayCapital Are the low margins in the domestic business a consequence of vending/logistics and the competition dynamics in Japan? To which extent it's structural and where do you see the upside in terms of margins?

The margin in the JP biz is crazy low, which is why most profits are ex Japan. If they ever improve margins there, there's big upside. yeah yeah, not a nanocap or net net, or even the cheapest staple, but it'll offset some of my staple etf short XLP.

Bought some Suntory Beverage (2587) today. This is a cheap large cap JP consumer staple (most profits ex Japan from Europe/Asia). EV/EBIT of 8.6 (vs 24.6x for $KO). Yeah, KO is the better 'asset light' biz, but this is so much cheaper (and bit better yield too).

Next deck will be Nintendo $NTDOY 7974 JP. Out in a couple of weeks. (Will edit visual for deck)

I have written an article on South Korean equities, corporate reform and governance. I'll share it next week. In the meantime, if you want to learn more about music streaming in China: x.com/Fran_G47/statu…

I've re-initiated $TME after a 52% YTD drawdown. 8.5x fwd earnings for a dominant platform with a solid track-record of execution behind it. Full write-up: open.substack.com/pub/riddermark… Hope someone finds it useful and interesting!

@vtyagarr Thank you Vladimir! Glad you found it interesting. What are your views around the company?

@Fran_G47 Great analysis. Was tracking the company and after li lu bought a stake worth searching deeply

"RIP Bloomberg. Claude has made it obsolete, here you have 10 prompts on how I use it" (he has never used a terminal)

@QuietProsperity Absolutely hilarious, they are like bots... "Terry Smith is trimming positions and making big changes to his portfolio". He is selling everything lol the Fund's AUM have fallen off a cliff

13F season is hilarious. There is zero consideration for outflows by most people. "Akre is blowing out of MA!" Um, they reduced their allocation by 0.23% in relation to reported holdings. MCO & ORLY? Less than 1%. They had outflows. Gotta sell. That's how it works.

Worth a read bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individu…

My wife @DCrittenden1 in weekend @WSJ on the torment of the electronic afterlife. (Gift article.) wsj.com/lifestyle/rela…

@Paul_Wildcat @badbets0 @DutchInvestors But isn't that stat misleading? Most of small towns in Poland (particularly in the Eastern part, which is part of the "whitespace" story) have a smaller population than 15yrs ago. Most of the "rural" growth is not really rural, it's coming from suburbs and towns in the outskirts

@badbets0 @DutchInvestors

Dino Polska is down >40% from its ATH. Last week, they reported earnings: - Sales in FY2025 grew 14.9%, while net profit increased just 3.5%. - Dino is facing several headwinds: an ongoing price war, rising wages, and deflation in the latter part of 2025. - The company now trades at 20x earnings, while growth is not expected to slow down. So the key question is whether the pressures weighing on Dino’s profits are temporary or structural. We lean towards the former. $DNP.WA

@evfcfaddict I believe Dino was too expensive, always shilled by Spanish fintwit irrespective of valuation. I particularly prefer Jerónimo Martins (or Ahold). ​On Eventim... I wrote my first Substack on it a month ago, and I'm already sitting at a 24% drawdown 🥲 very compelling here

Today teaches us that already cheap (and pretty stable) businesses can fall a lot further on earnings releases... $EVD.DE $DNP.WA

@moneyandmore72 Don’t look at Sabre… It was a former top 10 holding and is down 90% since then

Smithson $SSON (Fundsmith's smaller companies fund) - Set to shortly become an investment fund rather than an investment trust. One of their biggest holdings fell by over 52% this morning. Oddity $ODD. It was 3.6% of assets at the end of 2025. Not great quality! Ouch.

@cybervanstan Agree on r/r of equity vs debt (and could be a bagger with a PE takeout) but I wouldn't sleep at night. For the equity to work, they need to do more than just survive and extend the maturities (generate excess cash that don't go just to cover interests). B/S caps innovation too

It has a ton of debt, which makes the equity more like a call option on survival. If they can be the centerpiece of agentic AI solutions, it could be quite good and a multi-bagger. If not, its very ugly for equity and bond investors. Frankly, I'd rather hold equity in the company (high upside multiplier) rather than debt (downside with strongly capped upside).

Just checked $SABR after a while... Brutal. Down 92% over 5 years (-96% since January 2020)... 400m market cap, but an EV of $3.9bn (with 11% interest swallowing any earnings). A case study in why you avoid capital structures left behind by PE.

@JavierTiedra Muy merecido Javier, ¡enhorabuena y a seguir así!

Ojo, ¡5.000 almas! Muy agradecido por la confianza, vamos ahí a por los 10k 💪

@heartof_thesea those using Direct and their tools will be "replaced" by AI over the next 5–10 years? So less analysts = less subscriptions 2/2

@heartof_thesea Yep, agree on all points! What's your view on the AI impact? Not sure whether the main concern of the market is that data becomes a commodity due to LLMs (I don’t think that’s the case for Morningstar, less true for FactSet), or whether the market believes that 1/2

Thoughts on $MORN here?

I believe it’s only a matter of time until Sabre is bought by PE (again). What's left is the GDS business, which doesn’t really scream structural tailwinds or growth...

Still trying to figure out why $SSON (Fundsmith's Smithson) bought $SABR and still owns it. Always seemed to me as an odd decision given the capital structure.