AltayCap

Definitely not defending any of this and I admit I haven't dug very deep into the real estate issues. Though I have been reading about an impending China real estate / financial crisis for over a decade now. Central planning allows them the ability to delay any reckoning for a long time, so not saying it won't happen. I'm obviously bearish on all Chinese investable assets.

@zriboua When I look at this + the largest real estate bubble in history - in physical terms, not just numbers on a screen - that's a big part of why I say China is bull shit. @AltayCapital

This is an absolute must read "Perhaps a more serious problem is that Beijing is being forced by the rapidly declining rate of return on capital investment to devote an increasing portion of lending to recapitalize and subsidize both banks and firms operating at a loss. Net interest margins have declined by half since 2014. As a result, loans to the real economy have fallen by 9 percent of new credit creation in recent years. Much of the gap is likely going into propping up the banking sector instead of to new investment." hudson.org/economics/how-…

@DeepIceValue This is consensus opinion. Everyone is bullish. I bet it continues to perform poorly.

$V, $MA and $AXP are undervalued..

@DaBao_ You ever look at 5189?

my strength is niche industrials and love to see 3023, a true hidden champion gone +40% in less in 2 months. very low profile. the chairman has a bio but it's very watered-down. I finished reading in 30 mins and got sick afterwards. books.com.tw/products/E0500…

I think you're too negative on china's capabilities 'all fake', unless you referring mostly to their military, which I think is wildly over estimated. I agree they are corrupt. More so than people realize. The corruption serves as a way to get around ideological rules. Did business for years there. So many awful businesses trying to scam you, but some wildly competent and great partners there. I think people over estimate their military capability. They still haven't solved jet engines (it's hard!). The censorship/lack of political freedom is also obviously not ideal. Creates obvious structural issues. The walk east videos on YouTube or any video showing off walking tours of random Chinese cities (including poorer cities) are all pretty impressive. They've done well in lifting many out of poverty. Manufacturing wages in China averages $8.27/hour in 2022 (the economist). I'll never buy Chinese stocks as they are mostly scams. Oh and the ever green image on china stocks.

Someone recently told me that China is large scale Singapore. They missed a key ingredient of Singapore's success: getting corruption to near zero. An honest society. The entire foundation of China is bad. Nothing about China is real. What you see in the videos is not what it seems.

@TidefallCapital *taps the sign*

Almost no return on $BABA 12 years post IPO

@taobanker i might be the only one i know who actually likes and regularly eats campbells soup. The stock still isn't doing it for me though.

Okay so hear me out we know $cpb is going to make $600mm minimum right... that's lower than all the street estimates... $7.2bb market cap... buying $cpb for 12x earnings...prove me wrong..

@BerkelKip Koyfin data on net income usually goes back to 2001

@AltayCapital How do you even get 25 years of data?

Used ai to summarize a video interview with a co I own Nakakita Seisakusho (6496). I knew they were consistently profitable but my data only went back 25 years. They've had no loss in 49 years!

Mitachi with another revision upwards of forecast. Dividend going up 10 jpy too.

Mitachi reported strong earnings handedly beating their own revised projections for H1. First picture is H1 revised forecast from last month (projected 58b rev, 1.35b op inc). Seond picture is results which came in @ 1.57b op inc. Market likes it. Up 10-11%.

Mitachi (3321) Raised dividend forecast again. this time to ¥70. Earnings forecast also raised. Looks conservative still (H1 raised more than H2) @gw_investing has a good writeup on them (I bought after reading his writeup)

@Anssi_A @finphysnerd Was mean to some meme stonk investors. Trolling their community was too much fun.

@AltayCapital @finphysnerd What did you do, now I'm curious...

$RDDT is one of my favourite ideas atm. I'm thinking about an advertising exposed short basket to offset it here. Some ideas. $SNAP $TTD $PUBM - promising big things $PERI - just get raging shitco vibes here $NEXN - long term underperformer $NMAX - unprofitable news $TDAY - ^

@Guyquity @theTIKR I've never used TIKR but have been pretty happy with Koyfin.

Another early adopter of @theTIKR and Pro subscriber since the early days. I even brought a few sailors onboard. Now features I already had are locked behind an extra $600/year upgrade 🫨 Not a great way to treat your early crew. This pirate may sail elsewhere. 🏴‍☠️

@TSOH_Investing Agree, but once the market matures, you don't think Costco/Walmart/etc will just copy the model? When I go to Wholefoods I buy VITL eggs, but I usually go to Costco. If Wholefoods had 365 brand eggs with the same premium quality, I'd buy that. Or Kirkland signature at Costco.

@AltayCapital If we use revenues as a proxy, reasonable brand power so far!

Vital Farms NTM EV/EBIT

Visa / Mastercard are great businesses because they are really good at rent seeking behavior. Terrible for society, great for investors. I'm hoping U.S. caps fees the way EU does eventually. National governments offering nearly free competitors in Brazil and India too. And these are killing V/MA in those markets.

The mkt is back to debating this nonsensical shit every few years. Meanwhile no one in the real world has any fucking idea what stablecoins are, let alone any real world purpose they might serve.

@orrdavid Speaking of staying wrong. There's a guy that's written 320+ articles on the GSEs $FNMA / $FMCC since 2014. Before that he would write about various value stocks. How does one become THAT obsessed? He's up a bit (I think) since he owns preferred, but barely over 12 years.

In almost every case, if the thesis was, "The company trades for 60% of intrinsic value" and then this happens over 3 years, the thesis was horribly wrong. That's 10x as true if the company's factor was relatively strong. It's a sin to stay wrong in investing. Don'd do this.

@taobanker Just short index ETFs if you want to take some risk off. Selling profitable positions is not ideal since it triggers taxes.

Buying puts legit does nothing because they either barely do anything or make you more confident at the worst time... if you really want to take risk off you have to sell shit

@JapanDeepValue1 @MikeFritzell What's interesting about deep value plays (this isn't one) is that if they disappoint massively the stock rarely collapses. This co below did a massive revision down to profits. 1,000 jpy stock losing 100 per share and stock was flat that day! Not even super illiquid name either!

@JapanDeepValue1 @MikeFritzell Indeed. I didn't even buy on the initial jump from forecast, bought recently which is closer to pre forecast levels. It's as you said, no one wants to own this thing. 900-1000 level seems to be the abyss for this stock. So not much downside from here. While we get 3% yield.

The bull case for Japanese software: - Revenues in yen so not hurt by JPY appreciation - SaaS penetration rate is 5-7 years behind the US - Growth is hard to find in Japan, but in SaaS - yes - Incremental margins in software are high - Run by young, aggressive CEOs - Have sold off indiscriminately on gen AI fears - EV/Sales multiples now often well below 3x

@JapanDeepValue1 @MikeFritzell

@JapanDeepValue1 @MikeFritzell Forecast for this next year looks strong. PayB partnership with JCB, and continued dominance in their niche all look pretty solid. The new forecast is what got me interested though. New president too. If business executes I'll hold if not I'll get out.