Frank.Peresta

$BTC broke support (channel/bear flag) at 64.5K. Expect a retest of the 64500 level soon. If prior support flips to resistance going much lower. $eth even more bearish breaking support & already failing the retest. High probability BTC drops below 50k & ETH 1.1K.

@Morecryptoonl Banana zone 😂

What happened to the Bitcoin & M2 correlation? $BTC #Bitcoin

@ark_signal @disclosetv Yep

@disclosetv Futures is about to open. Going to find that magical peace deal soon. 😂

JUST IN - CENTCOM says U.S. forces began launching more strikes against Iran at 5pm ET today.

@Max1milianPrice I agree brother. When you look at 2022 July exactly that. Do you use the Supertrend indicator. Very useful on daily.

Have noticed something very interesting, the red downtrend and short term holders cost basis both meet in roughly the same place - 69k region. I believe this coincidence is too high for it not to be meaningful. Therefore im predicting this re-distribution rally will end in that zone. not a drastic difference from 67.7k but enough to potentially make a few people irrationally bullish What does this look like on the LTF? To start the week we get a bullish monday which tags the monthly 50 ema - we reach at least 66k but somewhere around thsat region stall. Tuesday we turn around and suck in more shorts, thinking we have developed a lower high for july. We dump fairly hard at least to 63k where the longs that have developed from this past weekend are taken out Wednesday is reversal day where we begin to move back up towards our final POI of the 69k region. It forms a utad and is traditionally a very fast move After that the re-distribution schematic is complete and we fall to new lows to begin our final accumulation range starting august

@benjamincowen Norway

Norway or England?

@Tradermayne Happy birthday brother!

Today is my 43rd birthday and this past year was arguably my biggest year ever. Got married and sold my company. You are never too old to achieve your dreams boys.

@Tradermayne 🤪

What colour are the sell circles going to be?

@benjamincowen 💯

I did not always believe in the four year cycle for Bitcoin. I used to think it was silly, and that the market had to be more complicated than that. But then the market proved me wrong. So I admitted I was wrong, learned from my mistakes, and became a better investor. This cycle, a lot of new Bitcoiners faded the four year cycle and relentlessly mocked anyone calling for the bear market. For many of them, instead of recognizing they were wrong, they continue to laugh at anyone willing to discuss the simplicity of the four year cycle. They are likely doomed to repeat the same mistakes in the future, since their ego gets in the way of them being able to admit that they were wrong.

@Max1milianPrice Thank you👍

@FrankPeresta 62k ish bultrap

pay attention to those accounts turning bullish here, they have done the exact same thing throughout the whole bear market "btc gonna rip" "btc gonna rally hard" they have zero concept of what is required to form an actual meaningful bottom that leads to a sustained rally We will dump extremely hard very soon. Do not get sucked in

@DevEngineOz @bitsofwealth Bahaha 🤪

@bitsofwealth Tom Lee is

Anyone paying attention to $ETH?

@TheBigCycleGame Are you following USDJ...trouble looming

There is something worth highlighting here. Before getting into it, it is worth saying that Benjamin Cowen has built significant credibility in this space over years, through high quality analysis and a broad knowledge base that has genuinely helped many people understand this market. With that reach comes responsibility, because a large number of followers and content creators alike look to his analysis, copy his slides, and adopt the bias he presents. That makes the framing matter. Looking back at some of his content from 2022, during the actual bear market, the tone was noticeably different. It was more open, more analytical, and willing to consider both directions. Today the rhetoric leans more toward this is how Bitcoin has always behaved, every single time, so there is no need to overcomplicate it. That shift mirrors the broader bias that has taken hold across a large part of the crypto space right now. Given his reach, Cowen essentially functions as a proxy for the broader bias running through the crypto space right now. The four-year cycle model is not wrong on its face. So far it has played out roughly in line with an October top. The point here is not that the model is broken. The point is what surrounds it right now. We have a maximally bullish divergence between crypto and traditional markets, combined with a consensus that is more certain about how this cycle plays out than anything seen in 2022. At the same time, short positioning in the market has reached a scale never seen before. That combination, extreme certainty plus extreme short clusters, usually does not end quietly. The market tends to seek liquidity exactly where the crowd is positioned with the most confidence. What gets missed in nearly every four-year cycle framework is what is actually happening in traditional markets right now. This is not a normal uptrend like the ones seen repeatedly over the past several years. The S&P and Nasdaq have been in a parabolic structure since early April, producing moves between April and early June that would typically take years, compressed into six to seven weeks. That is not normal market behavior. That is the first warning sign of a structural blow-off, and it lines up with what the economy has already been signaling for years. Since the US economy peaked around 2022, traditional markets decoupled from the usual correlation and kept running. The explanation is AI. That is real, but it is also the only thing still running. The consumer drives 70% of GDP, and the consumer is not in good shape. The labor data behind that has been covered extensively elsewhere, so it will not be repeated here. The current correction in the S&P and Nasdaq closely resembles the corrective phase the Nasdaq went through during its own 1999-2000 parabola. If that pattern holds, the correction in traditional markets is likely shallow and close to done, not the deeper retest of the October 2025 and February 2026 highs that many are positioning for. The Russell 2000 supports this read. It has been tracking its own Dot-Com fractal with real precision, and for three straight weeks, while the S&P and Nasdaq corrected, the Russell printed new weekly highs. That is not bearish positioning. That looks like a market getting ready to extend. If traditional markets resume the trend that began in April, and rotation continues to broaden beyond the AI trade into the rest of the market, crypto is a very small asset class by comparison and is well positioned to participate in that move. None of this invalidates the four-year cycle model outright. On-chain conditions do show many of the signs typically associated with bottoming regions. But the structure in the Nasdaq and S&P suggests that the second half of the parabola is likely to unfold during a strong summer rally, which runs directly against typical seasonal expectations. That should not come as a complete surprise either, since something similar, though less pronounced, happened last year as well. What stands out is the combination itself: an extreme bullish divergence between traditional markets and crypto, a level of certainty around the cycle and timing model that has never been this strong, and record short positioning, all converging during a seasonal window that is usually expected to deliver very little. Every signal points toward a hot summer instead. This summer is likely to be more interesting than most are currently positioned for. @TheBigCycleGame

Expecting a little pop here for $btc before a move down to around 49k (or lower). Bearish divergence showing in RSI + below 50 bolinger bands are clues. Also EW showing mild upside.

@KobeissiLetter 😂

BREAKING: The US and Iran have agreed to halt strikes and meet this week, per Axios. The announcement comes just one hour before US stock market futures are set to reopen.

@KryptoFynn 😂

Boooah darauf erstmal in ne Long bei BTC rein :) USDT DOM bullish as fuck und unglaublich heiß auf einen historischen Ausbruch. Der DXY ebenfalls aus einer 1 Jahres Bodenbildungsphase nach oben ausgebrochen und ist heiß darauf viel weiter zu gehen. Der TradFi unglaublich schöne Topbildung mit fast schon garantiertem Abwärtspotential die nächsten Wochen. MSTR was seinen letzten großen Support bis zu den $30 verloren hat. Wenn X erlauben würde mehr einzufügen, hätte ich noch 10 weitere Gründe, warum es unglaublich smart ist genau JETZT long zu gehen und BTC ganz sicher nicht runtergehen wird😜

@ark_signal @G_CobraTheMan 😂

@G_CobraTheMan This doesn’t make you bearish enough on single family homes over the next 20+ years.

Dating apps gave women god-like power. Now the average man is invisible while women chase the top 10%. This isn't progress, it's a meat grinder.

@MooninPapa Never stop 😂

@KryptoFynn Thank you sir 🙏

Lehrstunde für den Tag: Viele kommen momentan mit dem Argument: „Wir haben eine bullish divergence auf dem weekly, wir müssen das Tief drin haben oder super nah dran sein.“ Das Problem: Eine solche divergence kann funktionieren, ist allerdings auch nur eins von sehr sehr vielen möglichen Zeichen. Gleichzeitig haben wir momentan eine hidden bearish divergence (gelb) und eine bullish divergence (blau) „aktiv“ Heißt für beide Richtungen hätte man ein Argument. Von daher würde ich das momentan außer acht lassen und mich auf all die anderen Signale verlassen, die allesamt „TIEFER“ schreien🤝

@Max1milianPrice Thank you sir 🙏

Expect 62k region to be the next shorting opportunity for news lows

Pumpin & Dumpin kinda weekend...careful low volume = more volatility for $BTC and all of #crypto

@MooninPapa @trad_west_ 💯🙏

@trad_west_ If you think that’s bad, wait until you hear what the Jews did when Jesus said he was God.

Muslim Imam said Jesus is God and got imprisoned. Bahaa el-Din Ahmed Hussein el-Akkad was under arrest for 2 years, from 2005 to 2007 simply because he converted to Christianity.