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FreeTrashFlow

@FreeTrashFlow

cynical optimist. Corp Dev & FP&A. financial musings. all things in life revert to the mean

Atlanta, GA Katılım Mart 2011
817 Takip Edilen615 Takipçiler
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FreeTrashFlow
FreeTrashFlow@FreeTrashFlow·
@LangmanVince My god you people are sheep incapable of freedom of thought. Fall in line MAGA puppet
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Vince Langman
Vince Langman@LangmanVince·
Revenge is a dish best served cold!
Vince Langman tweet media
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Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff@PeterSchiff·
Yes, @RepThomasMassie voted with Democrats to oppose Trump's Iran war. But had Biden started the same war, Massie would've voted with Republicans to oppose it. The difference is Massie votes his conscience and honors his oath to support the Constitution. The rest are party hacks.
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FreeTrashFlow
FreeTrashFlow@FreeTrashFlow·
@RapidResponse47 Weak and unserious administration that only cares about the stock market and asset prices. Corruption at the highest level
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FreeTrashFlow
FreeTrashFlow@FreeTrashFlow·
Doesn’t matter, no one has the will to prosecute this anymore bc guess what, every politician is some form is doing this whether through stocks or “prediction markets”. World is a casino
60 Minutes@60Minutes

“We spotted nine Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made, collectively,$2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations,” says Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of the small data analytics firm Bubblemaps. “And now here's the crazy part: 98% win rate.” cbsn.ws/4wwp0T7

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JD Vance
JD Vance@JDVance·
There’s a reason President Trump is respected by world leaders, and it’s because he’s consistently shown a level of strength that we haven’t seen from our Commander in Chief in modern history.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47

.@POTUS on his state visit to China: "We have a relationship, he and I, and we've been working together a long time. We've gotten along well. When I first came here, China was really taking advantage of the United States—he understands that—and now, we do great with China."

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FreeTrashFlow@FreeTrashFlow·
$SMH and semi trade is getting absurdly stupid while consumer names get nuked
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FreeTrashFlow
FreeTrashFlow@FreeTrashFlow·
$RDDT fading after that quarter is the dumbest thing ever
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Matt McClintock
Matt McClintock@MattJMcClintock·
$FND 1Q26 Immediate Call Postmortem Not much management can do here other than eat the fact that they didn’t kitchen sink guidance with a new CEO. The Brad era isn’t starting off too well and we didn’t even get Tom to step in the call today and remind us he is still somewhat involved as Chairman. A $400 million share repurchase program for a high growth retailer that is supposed to be “ next $COST ” isn’t necessarily a great signal TBH. Gutman was all over the repurchase in Q&A and the spin is they “are fortunate” to have excess cash despite funding expansion and even “M&A”. 2Q comps running down 4.5%. That’s worse than the 1Q exit rate of down 4% in March but better than the 6.9% decline in Feb. They hinted at weather driven for that month but also mentioned “broader softening demand”. Stupidly they only called out the difficult 2Q to date compare in late Q&A (April was one of strongest months last year). Introduced “value driven” offerings in vinyl flooring. This plus other “refinements” in pricing have “encouraging” results with positive elasticity. Like I mentioned last quarter – sounds like the wheels are falling off on the long stated theme that they are seeing no “trading down”. They expect the vinyl category to remain under pressure for rest of year. Later said “a portion of our consumers started to trend down to lower quality spec”. They are amazed at how well the better (good/better/best) part of their business has held up – only seem to see value trends in vinyl. The commercial business reflects “ongoing” difficult conditions as results were weaker than they expected. Isn’t commercial the main reason why Brad is the CEO today? Really makes me think they should have sandbagged the retail business (which is already harder to forecast to begin with) in a bigger way so that nothing in commercial missed expectations and at least Brad could have a halfway decent first impression start for his credibility. Nobody really expects him to be a retail expert but since he keeps pumping commercial M&A he needs to shine a lot better in that area. As much as Brad wants to tell us “believe me, its only a matter of time” in terms of leading indicators for the commercial business, he almost certainly set himself up terribly. Brian blamed the Iran war (“unexpected event following the quarter”) as the reason why they lowered guidance. You have to be kidding me – that certainly didn’t impact 1Q. I can’t recall anything about them having either sourcing or shipping issues from that region. Very much wonder if they are eating any of the higher energy costs that have resulted from that (probably some gas surcharges for sure) – the answer to Sigman’s question said the higher energy is “embedded” but the answer sounded more like word games and nothing definitive. Fadem was all over the transportation contracts in later Q&A – nice work. Seeing a modest impact today on domestic side – ocean freight is 6-8 months ahead. Today have minimal exposure on PVC product but “working with vendors” (feels like we have heard that phrase consistently from everybody for this entire decade). Lasser (of course) asks the most important question about market share – reality is this is a cyclical business and if they are still taking share who really cares that much about the shortfall. They “don’t think they are losing share in a meaningful way” – not sure that’s what Brad wanted to say with that sentence. However, they think they are taking share in laminate in a meaningful way (value pricing probably helps, LOL). Lasser had a banger of a follow up question because the big question is always in slow times, why lower price because anybody shopping is almost always shopping from need and therefore less price sensitive (Gary Friedman at $RH tried this for a few years but reality is sometimes the industry catches up with you). Benedict takes us home in final question with the necessary “minimum amount of cash” required for the business now they are doing a share repurchase. Might be first time anyone has ever asked them that. They think about it in terms of liquidity – that’s easily around $500 million which is a combination of cash and ABL. “Will not be using debt to fund this”. Ugh – Brian probably should know that an ABL is debt…maybe he went to the Gary Friedman School of Finance (“debt is nothing more than a currency swap”). *These are our unabridged quick thoughts and notes from the call. We get them out as soon as possible after the call ends. Management has given some topics to dig deeper into and will circle back afterwards with much more in depth work on what was mentioned. You can find that work (and more on Floor & Decor and other retail/consumer research) at the website link in our profile or in the first reply.
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