Frontera Trading LLC

$SPX Since the morning heavy GEX and OI loaded for 7515 - 7525 strikes + 7500 being first point of interest. Looks like we keep squeezing and will see how we position for next week. Don't short this market!

As I have been writing since last year, the most important window of risk for this cycle begins in the second half of April, by which time US economic and geopolitical risks will have accumulated. I've also been writing since December–January that the geopolitical conflict will further or re-escalate starting in the second half of April. Furthermore, since the week before the outbreak of the war with Iran, I have been saying that this conflict will drag on and cause more trouble than many believe, and I signaled that a new wave is coming. I provided a few free, highly profitable trade signals for #oil, $FNMA, the crash and bottom target zone for #gold, the $SPX top and bottom, and the early April rally. (I didn't expect such a rapid rally, but the spot showed a benign reaction at my levels, so we kept pushing higher. We trade what is in front of us, not what is stubbornly in our heads!) This rally is driven by mechanical flows and the AI sector, where problems are already starting to show. I wrote about this regarding the $NVDA ER and $TSMC —look it up. This bottleneck is just starting to materialize. For now, they are explaining it away as excess demand. We need to pay attention to the upcoming earnings reports. The secondary market is signaling the problem☝️ Big tech spending significantly exceeds ROI. End-user demand is falling. The excess demand cited in forward guidance comes purely from infrastructure build-out! This is crucial. The gap will continue to widen, leading to capital outflows from investors, especially when the inflation wave hits. (After all, the impact of the oil shock hasn't even rippled through the economy yet.) Stagflation and the ensuing oil shock will put even more pressure on the market. But I will explain these mechanisms in greater detail in my Sunday blog post. With Iran, the US has opened Pandora's box, just as I warned my followers. This belated move has triggered an oil crisis and decades of destabilization in the Middle East. Despite the massive US-Israeli air campaign, and despite the heavy losses suffered by Iran's top leadership, the Iranian regime's institutional framework remains completely resilient—just as I pointed out a week before the conflict, for which many mocked me... An opposition takeover is unlikely. The coalition has established local air superiority, destroying over 200 Iranian air defense systems. However, due to the absence of a swift military victory (the capitulation of the leadership), there is a visible shift in strategy toward the 'Dahiya doctrine', which focuses on widespread destruction of infrastructure to break the will of the population and the economy. As I wrote recently, B-1 bombers and precision strikes are continuously targeting deep underground nuclear facilities and the stockpiles of highly enriched uranium that Tehran amassed over the course of 2025. Iran's main focus has been placed on hybrid warfare and the maximum activation of its proxy militias (the Houthis blocking the Red Sea, along with armed groups in Iraq and Syria) in order to drag out the conflict across as many fronts as possible. This means two things: 1) market participants won't have accurate information about unfolding events, making it difficult to properly price in and forecast risks. 2) China gets more time to quietly prepare its administrative blockade of the First Island Chain, thereby slowing down one of the Western world's most critical supply chains. A new wave is unfolding. I have already written everything there is to say about this—the significance of propaganda, inflation as a weapon, as well as the broader geopolitical dynamics and their market impacts. Go to the 'highlights' menu; I've collected it all for you there. Read my Substack, where I've published plenty of free posts on these topics. A crisis is coming. And it's going to be massive... $SPX is topping sooner than you think... but not now...

Most traders see this RIPPER candle down(on the right chart) and get freaked out. "THE MARKET IS SO OVER SHORT EVERYTHING!!" But if we focus on the DEX, support remains to the upside bias, GEX told us the target did not change. Above 7000 today. If you profited today off the double-down at the open on long, big pat on the back. If you struggled, make sure your recap your setups, recap what these exposures represent, and make the next trade a good one! Much love, so happy to be back on stream today. Almost done with this flu, scratchy throat still but we banked regardless. See you all in Q&A tonight, we'll recap today and yesterday. @QuantData

JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

Trade plan for $NQ Key levels marked: - Pre market high (PMH) / white - Pre market low (PML) / white - Previous day high (PDH) / orange - Previous day low (PDL) / orange - Asia Low (ASL) / blue Bias: as we gained bullish momentum yesterday and pre market will be looking for a continuation for this move initially. - Will be looking for a sweep of PML and see how we react around 24780-24800 area for longs. Ideally will like to see a 5M iFVG to take longs for high confluence if not will be looking also for 1M iFVG for a tighter entry + stop. Hot level on watch for upside: 25000 and 25060. - If we sell at open with volume then my second area of interest will be Asia low to apply the same concept described above. - Will shift into looking for shorts if initial selling volume is aggressive and any pullback looks weak underneath pre market low. In case of a short position scenario then will be looking to target PDL area if we get that strength to the downside. Tip: I always like to give the market at least 15-30 minutes to settle down and provide more clarity on my plan. If I manage to take a trade in the first 10 mins then usually I take it small size and tight risk.

Trade: Took a quick pre market trade on $NQ (/MNQ) to start the day. Got some shorts once we inversed this 5M iFVG broke below and retest on the 5min. This is part of the ICT concepts I've been adding to my entries for better positioning. Waited to revisit this iFVG + close below confirmation for my short entry as you can see. Target = VWAP Would've taken this trade with more conviction if it was market open already but thats why I treated this as a quick scalp.

Back on X after starting the year really busy on my engineering 9 to 5. Let's pick up the good momentum we had last year. Been back testing some ICT concepts for my entries lately and so far so good. Going to share them as well with $SPX, $ES and $NQ levels.

This morning PA made me decide I'm not trading until Monday lol Tomorrow OPEX which is also a really choppy day so will be back Monday hopefully we get better PA.

Trade Update: Perfect squeeze setup up. Timing was amazing. Trims and stops on this trade as I go. We got a nice closure over $SPX 6900. Resistances are 6920 and 6930 now. Let's see how much we can get.

Ideally will like to see $SPX recover 6900 + $QQQ 617 for any longs entry into this session. Haven't taken any trades yet but still bullish on the short term.

Trade Update: Quick easy scalp on these longs both $NQ (/MNQ) and $ES (/MES) for this Asia session. Too good to not take it even with small size. Trimmed on my /MNQ position and letting the rest ride to final PT. /MES position still riding small entry. Will also trim accordingly. 💯 Great confluence fib retracement + 1HR bullish FVG. Perfect place to trim and move stops to prepare for tomorrow. No more open trades this session until #CPI data.

Will be looking how we react here at this overnight session for $NQ and $ES as we approach fib retracements and 1HR bullish FVGs for longs. Would rather see this setup in the NY session but lets see if we get something.

@Mr28trades Man I got stopped twice and glad I locked myself out… this PA usually kills accounts and make people go on tilt hahaha

This PA gave me a headache lol

Tough session today. Stopped twice trying the $SPX 6925 break and just done for today with a small loss. Will see how market reacts tomorrow with the tariff announcement and see how we position. Overall bias --> bullish until $SPX 6800 is breached or $ES_F 6902 breach as well. Other than that, buy the dip.

$SPX – Pre-Market Plan | 08 Jan 2026 Net speed profile = fly pattern: Customers buying vol both sides of centroid 6915.49, but ~2x more upside vol than downside → flat-to-negative speed. Vvol sold both directions. Key levels today: Centroid (major magnet): 6915.49 Upside pivot: 6922.84 (very sticky; needs real vol catch-up to break) → Target 6947.95 (6970-6942 range); if 6940/45 holds into 1:30PM → 6970 magnetic Downside pivot: 6904.36 → target 6854.13 (reversion to centroid + PM stabilization) Slow reversion (no bounce in 1-1.5hrs) → 6885 pin likely Distribution nearly balanced (+7.24% upside edge – not much). Market sees slightly less resistance up, but main bet = rangebound around centroid. Bias: Mild bullish tilt in range, fade extremes Best trades: - Long 6904 rejection for centroid fill / quick reversion - Fade 6922+ pops into 6947 (short call ratio) - Play for 6970 magnet if 6940 holds PM Gamma profile supports fly / vol buying behavior. $ES_F levels on watch: Above 6960 --> longs to 6974 then 6700. Below 6942 bearish structure confirms --> 6925 then 6908 (Major support) #SPX #ES_F #0DTE

This is the way for me! Started trading NQ then made a major switch to trade /MES and its been a great year so far! Once you have 3-5 accounts just trade copy for those nice 200-300 days and you are set! Also, trading micros on MES helped me to hold my trades longer and get pretty small cuts when stopped! People blowing fundeds trading NQ and get destroyed on range days…

"Anyone can make $200/day trading mini's." So do it! Shut up & do it! ✔️ Stop pretending you can predict the market and remember why you got in to trading. It wasn't because you loved iFVG's or Liquidity Sweeps, it was because you wanted $ and freedom! Dumb it down and get $$!

Been taking a break from trading since last week. Not actively trading or looking at charts. Will be back 01/05 stronger than ever and looking to improve my trading to another level. 💯

$SPX – Pre-Market Plan | 16 Dec 2025 Net speed negative, market defending gap down to 6737.46 (intraday downside target). Vol-of-vol sold, upside vol heavily bid to 6864.98 → break AM = stabilization 6895/6900 possible (low prob early). Key levels today: Centroid (very sticky magnet): 6839.02 Upside pivot: 6846.98 (needs real vol to break; otherwise centroid dominates) Downside pivot: 6807.42 → target 6785/90 (strong range) / AM extension 6740/50 Gap defense target: 6737.46 Momentum day potential but needs to be quick. Cautious on aggressive dip buys near gaps — small size, tight stops. Patience key. Bias: Rangebound around centroid, mean-reversion focus Best trades: - Fade extremes into 6846 cap & 6785 floor - Quick scalp upside break only with vol confirmation - Rejection at 6807 for bounce to centroid Gamma profile reinforces sticky centroid behavior. $SPY $QQQ $ES_F

Trade Update: Taking a long position on $ES_F (MES) based on my morning plan $SPX downside pivot bounce + $ES_F PML sweep and recover. Stops below downside pivot and $ES_F low. Targets on $ES_F --> 6912, 6918, 6931.