FullMetal Capital

Google wrote a $900,000,000 check to SpaceX in 2015. Everyone wrote it off. $900M is nothing for Google. But now, that $900M is worth $112B! And today, Google has invested $10B in anthropic, with $30B more to come, despite owning Gemini. Why? (a thread) $GOOG $GOOGL

one of the worst outcomes of AI is everyone using it for grammar correction. every reddit thread now looks like it’s full of bots cause every comment has the same telltale signs of AI. its the most mundane change in social media recently.

@Prathkum disagree. as soon as one figures it out, all of them will. it’ll come down to who has the best model. no other advantage will stand. ChatGPT is your case study.

First company to solve the AI cost problem will be the next tech giant for the next two decades at least.

@brewmarkets thanks to openAI: x.com/fulmetalcapita…

Happy Tuesday.

@StockSavvyShay @brewmarkets literally what i predicted lol: x.com/fulmetalcapita…

OpenAI missed a target and the market immediately started pricing AI like nobody else needs compute.

In 2023 I read a headline "GitHub Copilot launched, and can replace all software engineers by the end of the year" Like everyone else at the time, I was dumbfounded and believed it. This was supplemented by the ad video they had released where the model was coding everything. Later that year, people were ruling out Google from the AI race cause Bard just wasn't it and google had missed the boat. Microsoft, on the other hand, had gold on its hands. They had significant investments in OpenAI, and copilot was "good". Needless to say, all of it was just hollow vessels banging. Anyone who had used copilot from day 1 knew it wasn't as good as a first year CS college grad, and ChatGPT was just...hallucinating the answers anyway. Fast forward to today, copilot is being forced down everyone's throats through B2B deals. Google, ChatGPT and Anthropic are the biggest consumer products in the market, with no signs of stopping. Every time there's negative press about OpenAI, $MSFT plunges. Every time there's negative press about $GOOG, it doesn't matter cause everything runs on Google. It's fascinating how Microsoft went from "first-mover advantage" with ChatGPT and everyone praising them for their foresight, to now everyone realizing they're the worst positioned in the AI arms race. Their models suck. OpenAI left Azure as an exclusive partner. They don't even have their own compute. (significant) They're still relevant (cause SaaS isn't dying.)

@jukan05 OpenAI has a lot riding on its back, you don't get to a $ 1T valuation without a significant part of the industry supporting you. Their efforts are showing now at least, codex gaining 1M+ users every other week, and then refocusing by shutting down Sora shows they're serious.

Those selling the stock after reading the WSJ article on OpenAI fall into two categories: 1.Those who had been looking for an excuse to sell and are using this as the opportunity; and 2.Those who are simply dumb enough to follow the mood. Why do you think Sam Altman declared “code red” last year? Obviously, it was because they were falling short of their targets. If turning something everyone already knew into a sensational story counts as a skill, then I guess that is a skill.

@vivoplt Like anyone else using AI, someone needs to fix the code after claude wrote it.

Why does anthropic have 2,500 engineers if the models are writing most of the code

@unusual_whales Isn’t BNPL unsecured? What are they gonna do if people default?

25% of buy now, pay later users have had three or more active BNPL loans at one time, per LendingTree. That’s up from 23% last year

Not for long

Let me explain 2 ways of how this will go: 1. AI Companies lose millions of subscribers because it’s not worth blowing through a $5000 claude subscription every day. 2. Every other hyperscaler sees this and postpones this until they’re able to achieve efficiency.

@dividendology not sure but at the end of the next 17 years, you can bet the graph will be green on average.

S&P 500 returns since 2009: 2009: 🟢 +22.57% 2010: 🟢 +13.24% 2011: 🟢 +0.97% 2012: 🟢 +14.23% 2013: 🟢 +29.08% 2014: 🟢 +14.69% 2015: 🟢 +1.40% 2016: 🟢 +13.67% 2017: 🟢 +20.80% 2018: 🔴 -5.18% 2019: 🟢 +31.32% 2020: 🟢 +17.40% 2021: 🟢 +30.63% 2022: 🔴 -18.63% 2023: 🟢 +26.79% 2024: 🟢 +25.73% 2025: 🟢 +18.14% 2026: 🟢 +4.98% Can we really expect this level of growth over the next 17 years?

@ShivamK96256649 @spectatorindex They moved the company to SGP, along with a bunch of other AI companies in China, so they're able to actually collaborate and potentially sell off to global companies.

@FulMetalCapital @spectatorindex Why should anyone allow any western vompany to purchase their company if they want to be independent.

China has blocked Meta's $2 billion purchase of AI firm Manus.

@Comunardo @spectatorindex Okay, when you're done maybe we can talk about Google and Facebook.

@FulMetalCapital @spectatorindex Let’s talk about TikTok. genius

All the names that will fall if OpenAI fails:

The amount of money riding on OpenAI's success:

@HeroDividend Has begun popping*

The AI bubble has begun

@Polymarket Isn't there a safer route to test this first? Just make an OS and release it for android, do everything you promised, check if there's actually demand, and then make a phone. So so so many legacy brands have failed in smartphones. It's not easy to compete.

JUST IN: OpenAI is reportedly developing a smartphone designed to "make apps obsolete" by replacing them with AI agents.

If OpenAI falls, so does the rest of the industry. The biggest tech names you know have a stake in OpenAI worth multiple billions.

@Polymarket I know this isn't close to it, but if OpenAI shows signs of failing, the whole industry goes down. $AMZN, $NVDA, $AMD, $ORCL, $MSFT and softbank have all invested billions into OpenAI, and their stocks will tank if the investment fails. Just something to keep in mind

JUST IN: OpenAI CFO is reportedly worried the company may not be able to pay for future compute contracts if revenue doesn’t grow fast enough.

AWS and Google Cloud both are gonna have incredible tailwinds through this news. Especially Google. Google seems to be a competitor in AI models, and their infra. Spectacular place to be in. $AMZN $GOOG $GOOGL