Gian Luca Comandini

The United States just deployed the one weapon system that tells you exactly what comes next. 11 F-22 Raptors landed at Ovda Airbase in Israel’s Negev Desert today. They flew from RAF Lakenheath in England, supported by seven aerial refueling tankers, covering thousands of miles to reach Israeli soil. One of the original twelve turned back with a suspected fuel leak. The rest completed the transit and are now sitting on Israeli tarmac. This has never happened before. Not during the ISIS campaign. Not during Blue Flag exercises. Not during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025. The F-22 Raptor, the most advanced air superiority fighter ever built, has never been based in Israel for a combat-oriented mission. Until today. Now understand what the F-22 does, because it does not do what you think. The F-22 does not bomb nuclear facilities. It does not carry bunker busters. It is not a strike aircraft. The F-22 is a Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses platform. It kills the systems that protect targets. It neutralizes radar. It destroys surface-to-air missile batteries. It eliminates the S-300 and S-400 systems that Iran has spent decades layering around Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The F-22 is not the punch. It is the hand that moves the shield out of the way so the punch can land. Iran’s air defense architecture is the single obstacle between the B-2 Spirit bombers carrying 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker busters and the centrifuge halls buried under 80 meters of granite at Fordow. The F-22’s entire purpose in this theater is to carve a corridor through that architecture, blind Iranian radar, destroy missile batteries along the ingress route, and ensure the bombers reach their targets without being engaged. When you deploy your SEAD package to the theater, you are not deterring. You are building the ingress corridor. Only 195 F-22s were ever built. Approximately 180 remain operational. The United States just committed 11 of them, roughly 6 percent of the entire operational fleet of its most valuable airframe, to a single base in southern Israel. You do not forward-deploy 6 percent of an irreplaceable weapons system for signaling. You deploy it because the mission it was designed for is approaching. Now connect this to what is already in theater. Two carrier strike groups with 150-plus aircraft. 500-plus total combat aircraft. 700 tonnes of munitions via C-17. 40 aerial refueling tankers. Three AWACS for airborne command and control. A P-8A mapping the Strait of Hormuz. Every ship cleared from Bahrain. Hundreds evacuated from Al Udeid. The IRGC massing at the Iraqi border. Khamenei’s shadow government activated. Modi landing in Israel tomorrow to collect alliance signatures. Geneva on Wednesday. The 48-hour deadline expiring before any of it begins. And now the SEAD package has arrived. There is a sequence to air campaigns that has not changed since Desert Storm. First, you position your strike aircraft. Done. Second, you stage your munitions. Done. Third, you deploy your tankers for sustained operations. Done. Fourth, you establish airborne command and control. Done. Fifth, you map the retaliation corridor. Done. Sixth, you deploy your SEAD assets to suppress enemy air defenses along the ingress route. That sixth step happened today. The seventh step is the phone call. Germany has advised its citizens in Israel to prepare for airspace closures. India told its citizens to leave Iran. The US Embassy in Beirut is evacuating. Khamenei is dispersing his leadership. Iran is practicing closing the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone on every side of this conflict is preparing for the same event. The only people not preparing are the ones who think this is still about deterrence. The F-22s are not in Israel to deter. They are in Israel to clear the sky. And you only clear the sky when something is about to fly through it.