Geopolitical Futures

Today we published the new July issue of GeoEconomic Lens, focusing on how geopolitical forces are driving trade, investment, industrial policy and, therefore, corporate strategy. Our feature article, “The Coming Defense Boom,” argues that the global defense sector is entering a structural growth cycle rather than a temporary wartime surge. If you run a business or have investment decisions to make, or just enjoy a deeper knowledge of the impact of geopolitics on a nation’s economy and its components, our goal is to provide a lens through which to focus and better understand the most important connections. It’s not too late to subscribe to GeoEconomic Lens today and receive your copy of the new issue of Lens. bit.ly/4uTVwxc #geopolitics #geoeconomics #economy #business #investment #trade #defense

Turkey’s Ascent as a Defense Industrial Player Global rearmament and lengthy delivery backlogs have created demand for alternative suppliers. Details in our new Weekly Graphic: geopoliticalfutures.com/turkeys-ascent…

New for GeoEconomic Lens subscribers: Read our latest briefing on the Strait of Hormuz geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/

Learn more about the new product from Geopolitical Futures, GeoEconomic Lens, analyzing the global economy through the lens of geopolitics. Lens is available with an individual or group subscription, with our July issue featuring "The Coming Defense Boom" out now. - via Business News & Info businessnewsandinfo.com/spotlight/geop…

The future of maritime shipping through the Red Sea corridor will be decided on land, not at sea. Security in the Red Sea basin is often boiled down to one thing: the Yemeni Houthi rebels’ ability to disrupt commercial shipping, particularly as the war in Iran raises concerns over maritime shipping outside the Strait of Hormuz. But the basin’s strategic landscape is increasingly shaped by broader geopolitical developments, including Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, Turkey’s expanding military partnership with Somalia, the destabilizing effects of Sudan’s civil war, Ethiopia’s drive to secure maritime access, and Egypt’s efforts to reassert its regional role. The region’s future stability will depend not only on protecting shipping lanes but also on the intersecting rivalries unfolding among the states that border and influence the waterway. - Kamran Bokhari

The US-Iran "Gut Check" and the Future of European Defense "People that think that the old reality means a moral obligation on all sides aren't looking at history. That's not how it works." - @George_Friedman on a new episode of Talking Geopolitics, on the future of European defense following this week's NATO summit. youtu.be/XrwGuB6cCi8

In today's Memo: The US is preparing for a multi-day or even multi-week exchange of fire with Iran

The Race for Energy Security Clean energy is now attracting almost twice as much investment as fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency released its 2026 energy investment report, highlighting the key investment regions and sectors as the world continues to deal with the energy crisis caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global energy investment is expected to reach about $3.4 trillion in 2026, with clean energy attracting about $2.2 trillion, almost double the level flowing into fossil fuels. This is due to an increasing need for energy security. China remains by far the largest national investor in clean energy, partially due to its advanced industrial base and growing expertise in the technologies, but also in part due to its vulnerability to energy supply shocks as the globe’s largest fossil fuel energy importer. geopoliticalfutures.com/the-race-for-e…

Is it time to talk about Greenland again? #NATOsummit #Greenland #NATO youtube.com/watch?v=1iJMbv…

Is Moscow running out of options? youtube.com/watch?v=EC5e1r…

Rolling Back Iran: Why Iraq Is the Decisive Front With its position in Syria collapsed and Hezbollah severely weakened, Iran has been forced to fall back on Iraq, transforming the country into a decisive battleground in the struggle to reshape the Middle East. geopoliticalfutures.com/rolling-back-i…

Expanding the Copperbelt’s Atlantic Export Routes U.S. critical minerals policy is becoming more infrastructure-focused and openly geostrategic.

Changes beyond the region are driving South American states to get more serious about enforcing their writ in and around their borders. The pressures from outside are manifold. First, there’s the change in U.S. policy toward the region, exemplified by the January 2026 raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Washington’s counter-cartel coalition and new secondary sanctions authority against Cuba point in the same direction: The U.S. is reasserting dominance over the Western Hemisphere’s security alignments and economic policies. Second, disruptions around global chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, have increased the value of South American energy, food, minerals, oil and Atlantic export routes. Finally, U.S.-China competition adds another layer, as ports, infrastructure, satellites, defense contracts and energy systems are turned into instruments of influence. Brazil and Argentina demonstrate the two main responses available to the strongest South American states: Brazil is building domestic capacity to protect its territory and periphery, while Argentina is regaining relevance through selective cooperation with the United States. - Andrew Davidson geopoliticalfutures.com/south-american…

New episode out now with GPF Chairman @George_Friedman: How Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries Threaten the War Economy; Russia's Military Logistics and the Belarus Front youtube.com/watch?v=7C3QgB…

Expanding the Copperbelt’s Atlantic Export Routes U.S. critical minerals policy is becoming more infrastructure-focused and openly geostrategic. Details are in our new Weekly Graphic: geopoliticalfutures.com/expanding-the-…

During last week's BRICS summit in New Delhi, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu warned that the security of BRICS members is constantly under threat and the coordinating role of international organizations like the United Nations has been seriously undermined. At a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Shoigu said the BRICS need to create response mechanisms and resource reserves in case of emergencies.

One of Washington’s biggest strategic challenges in the Middle East is how to reach a lasting accommodation with Iran without compromising Israeli security. It must, in other words, balance engagement with a long-standing adversary against its commitments to its closest regional ally. Although Iran has emerged from the recent conflict significantly weakened, there is little reason to believe the regime will significantly change its ideological orientation or regional ambitions. So even if Tehran is prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons, Iran is likely to remain a disruptive actor that will have greater access to the resources it needs to project power in the region. - Kamran Bokhari

A Realist View of Egypt’s Mediator Role Cairo’s influence over regional disputes is limited by international and domestic constraints. geopoliticalfutures.com/a-realist-view…

Governments in Central Asia are shifting away from traditional partners in Russia and China toward a more diverse set of investors and patrons. The growing interest in the region is difficult to ignore, especially for Western countries. Once firmly in Russia’s sphere of influence, the region is now teeming with opportunity as countries search for new routes from Asia to Europe that bypass Russia. Central Asia is rich in natural resources and supports growing economies. Average annual growth in capital investments in 2023-25 was 10.7 percent in Kazakhstan, 18 percent in Tajikistan and 21.7 percent in Uzbekistan. Crucially, the Russian invasion of Ukraine accelerated these trends. In Uzbekistan alone, FDI has increased by more than 45 times since 2016. - Ekaterina Zolotova