Garrett Watson

Friday IRS Filing Season Statistic Update: -Average tax refunds edged down $53 this week to $3,623, following the typical filing season pattern -Compared to last year, average refunds remain $352 higher -Total refunds are up nearly $20 billion this year

See how the tax changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will affect you with our interactive calculator: hubs.ly/Q047ggrP0

"Millions of Americans will likely be asking as they prepare for the upcoming midterm elections: why elect senators and representatives if, when it comes to major policy questions, they’ll do their best to avoid taking responsibility?" nationalreview.com/2026/03/the-ta… @danieldbunn @NRO

How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war. wsj.com/economy/econom…

This is definitely a big reason everything feels crazier post-pandemic A lot more people got Very Online

NEWS: Senate Banking Republicans are discussing adding bank deregulatory provisions to crypto market structure legislation in exchange for the House accepting a Senate-approved housing package Highly unclear if House Rs would accept such a trade politico.com/live-updates/2…

Mullin needed to apologize, say it was the heat of the moment and he made a mistake. At that point Paul could have let it go. But Mullin didn't do that, despite being given ample opportunity. I don't want a hotheaded DHS secretary.

Proponents of a California wealth tax ballot initiative insist that the proposed wealth tax is temporary: a one-time 5 percent tax that can be paid upfront or over five years with deferral charges. Others are skeptical that the wealth tax would be allowed to expire. Read more from @JaredWalczak: hubs.ly/Q047yBnL0

Gotta say.. I respect the hell out of @RandPaul for this interrogation of Mullin at that hearing. A Senator holding a member of his own party accountable. Refreshing. Imagine how competent our government would be if we routinely held it to this standard.

Excellent analysis here of why current AI (or any AI) won't deliver sudden increases in longevity. One big reason: data on physical entities in the real world, unlike data scraped from the internet, must be gathered in real time with painstaking effort, and the criteria for success take years to be applicable. Additional trenchant analyses, clearly presented, are in @gmiller's "rant."

WASHINGTON (AP) — Wholesale inflation comes in hot for February with producer prices rising 3.4%, the biggest jump in a year.

Observation by @jasonfurman: If you zoom all the way out, the Trump economy’s first 14 months look very very very similar to the Biden economy’s last 14 months, but most people have changed their mind about whether the economy is good.

Ehrlich in 1970: "The FCC should see to it that large families are always treated in negative light on television." If that doesn't work, then the government should "legislate the size of the family" and "throw you in jail if you have too many" kids.

We are now borrowing $93,884 every second this fiscal year. Not Republican or Democrat. Just math.

Many conservatives are remembering how Paul Ehrlich was wrong about all his enviro-pessimism and supposed constraints on growth, but all those views are the same concerns that fuel the anti-immigrant movement. Zero sum. Fixed pie. Misanthropy. People as "takers," not makers.

Stephen's Miller contention that illegal immigration drives the *entire* $1.8 trillion budget deficit is the fiscal equivalent of 2+2=purple. There is no scenario where its even 1% correct. Just ask DOGE, which identified virtually zero savings from this category.

Top rates under the Sen. Van Hollen and Sen. Booker tax cut plans would be 49% and 43%, respectively. Top federal income tax rates exceeding 40% would place the US among countries like the Netherlands, Spain, and France, but with a key distinction—in those countries, top rates apply at much lower income levels. Read more: hubs.ly/Q046-01D0

Nina Olson, who is on the board for the Center for Taxpayer Rights, sent mystery shoppers to 53 non-credentialed preparer sites across six states during the 2025 filing season. The results were terrible. The vast majority of returns had incorrect filing statuses, wrong credit amounts, fabricated deductions, or unreported cash income. Refund amounts were wildly off. Preparers routinely failed to ask basic questions about household composition and income, and even when they did, they got the law wrong. Meanwhile, the IRS rarely penalizes bad preparers and collects less than 19% of the penalties it assesses. The report's core recommendation: Congress needs to finally authorize the IRS to require minimum competency testing and continuing education for non-credentialed preparers. This is worth a read! Thanks to @TGorcz for sharing the report. #TaxTwitter #EA #CPA #Taxes taxpayer-rights.org/wp-content/upl…

definitely an implicit undercurrent of this debate is the assumption that buying homes is better than renting them. I rent a house and I’m so glad I can. Maybe that math will change one day for me, maybe it won’t

The data center buildout has allowed Loudoun County to lower property tax rates by 38% since 2010, translating to average savings of about $3,400 per year for homeowners.