5/1 NBA Prop #1 🏀
Rui Hachimura O 11.5 Points (-111)
#LakeShow
❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING
• Rui has scored 12+ points in all 5 games this series, averaging 14.8 PPG on 11 FGA (39.2 MPG).
• Perfect 10/10 without Luka (with Reaves active), averaging 15.3 PPG on 10.8 FGA.
• Strong with minutes: Over in 23/25 games when playing 32+ minutes, averaging 15.4 PPG (10.7 FGA).
• Volume = consistency: 12+ in 36/42 games when taking 9+ shots, averaging 15 PPG.
• Key closeout spot for LA (3.5 spread) → minutes and role should remain steady.
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LIKE IF TAILING ❤️
• Surprisingly the #1 seed Pistons are now down 3-1 in the series against the #8 seed Magic and will be facing elimination the rest of this series. Expecting Bickerstaff to run a pretty tight rotation and give his starters heavy minutes as they can’t afford to lose anymore which should lead to Harris seeing around 35 minutes just like he did last game.
• Now obviously Cade Cunningham is Detroits #1 scoring option but he hasn’t really been too consistent which in my opinion makes Tobias their #2 scoring option and most consistent scorer as he’s gone over this line in all 4/4 games so far in this series averaging 26.5 PR per game.
• Even before this series Tobias has had great success against the Magic this season as he went over in 3 STRAIGHT games recording 30, 23, and 25 PR per game. In both the regular season and postseason this year he’s over in 7 STRAIGHT games versus them averaging 26.3 PR per game.
• In this span of 7 games his FGA volume has been great as he’s averaged 15.9 FGA per game which is significantly higher than his season average of 10.8 FGA per and has took 15+ FGA in his last 6 STRAIGHT games versus them. With 15+ FGA he’s over this line in 10/11 (91%) games this season averaging 26.5 PR per game.
• Really like the addition of rebounds here along with him to score as his points line is set at 16.5 meaning we would need at least 6 rebounds to make it worth taking the PR at 22.5 here. He’s grabbed 6+ rebounds in his last 5 STRAIGHT games versus the Magic and has averaged 13.8 rebound chances per game in this series.
• With even just 11+ rebound chances he’s grabbed at least 6 rebounds in 21/22 (95%) games this season for an average of 7.6 rebounds per game. The addition of rebounds here should hopefully give us an edge with taking the PR.
• I also just want to mention and point out how poor Tobias has been shooting from deep in this series. In the 4 games so far played in this one he’s shot a combined 3/21 (14%) from three which is wild to think since he’s a 36.8 3p% shooter this season. If he’s been shooting this poorly as has still been able to clear this line in every game then I think he should have no issues doing it once again for us tomorrow.
Best Odds: -114 DraftKings
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CBB Saturday Play:🏀🚨
AJ Storr O 14.5 Pts -120
Collab W @KadeBets 👨🍳
Storr comes into tonight clearing this line in his last 7 games, as he has excelled off the bench (but playing starter minutes) for the Rebels. Now, he gets the deep Texas drop coverage which has allowed at least 15 points to a ball-dominant G/F in every SEC game:
Johnson - 35pts (35 FGA+FTA)
Pack - 23pts (24 FGA+FTA)
Hall - 31pts (30 FGA+FTA)
Wilkinson - 17pts (19 FGA+FTA)
Oweh - 18pts (22 FGA+FTA)
Griffen - 17pts (8 FGA+FTA)
Miles - 21pts (21 FGA+FTA)
Philon - 21pts (24 FGA+FTA)
Gillespie - 34pts (23 FGA+FTA)
Hubbard - 38pts (46 FGA+FTA)
Storr to this line with:
12+ FGA+FTA: 11/15
15+ FGA+FTA: 10/12
18+ FGA+FTA: 6/7
20+ FGA+FTA: 6/6 (17+ pts in each)