Andrew Wade@wade_andrew
WNBA Season Prop Thread Preview
Just a reminder, these are relatively unstructured thoughts going into the season. Not every player is covered and some teams have much more depth. Prop threads are two weeks away!
***Indiana Fever***
○ While the Liberty, Aces, Wings and Dream were making splashes in free agency, the Fever had a much more reserved approach, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Gone is Natasha Howard, who despite being a former MVP was a horrendous fit on this Fever squad as she provided zero floor spacing and did not fully understand her role as the 4th option in this offense. In is Monique Billings, who averaged 7.2 points and 4.5 rebounds per game for the expansion Valkyries last year.
○ I recognize that those stats are not better than Natasha Howard's 11.4 points and 6.6 rebounds last year but there were way too many instances where Natasha Howard was played off the floor due to her slow foot speed causing her to be a major defensive liability.
○ Monique will bring a better presence defensively and is a much better playstyle fit alongside Caitlin as evidenced by their chemistry on team USA this summer. HC Steph White said as much, "She's a good defender, hard rim runner, hard roller on ball screens and a good rebounder".
○ This offseason, Aaliyah Boston dominated in Unrivaled and then got a well-deserved raise by the Fever. I expect big things from Aliyah Boston this year, but probably not in the way you all are thinking.
○ Last year, it was difficult to project which Aaliyah Boston we were going to get on a given night but that wasn't her fault, it was due to inconsistencies on getting her the basketball and her more involved role as a facilitator herself. With Caitlin Clark back in the mix, that should change.
○ In the last two years, we've seen heavy pressure being put on CC, especially off PNRs with bigs stepping up to try and stop CC's 3s which leaves AB wide open barreling down the paint. And while I expect her to exceed her 15 PPG average from last year, what I am really excited about is her 3s props and assist props. Steph White noted they wanted her to take at least 3 attempts a game last year (up from 0.7) and that it was a priority for AB to continue working on her 3s this year. It's a big IF, but if we get 3s props, it would be worth grabbing those early for AB.
○ We saw AB operate as a point forward often last year, but we couldn't seem to get good prices on her assist numbers. This is something I'll be monitoring early in the season with her involvement in the passing game (especially with Monique). We could also see her rebound numbers drop a bit more from her 8.2 a game and 5th best orb per game of 2.4 due to her presence away from the paint and with Monique on the team.
○ Given Kelsey Mitchell's hospitalization after last year's semi-finals game and CC's hamstring issues last year, minutes early in the season will be worth monitoring. Steph White was adamant that that they need to manage minutes early and that they need to establish a true cadence and true rotation.
○ I anticipate we see Lexie starting with Sophie coming off the bench.
○ As for the remainder of the rotation, I would imagine the rest of the minutes will be divided amongst Myshana Hines-Allen, Tyasha Harris, Shitori Walker-Kimbrough, Raven Johnson, Makayla Timpson and Damiris Dantas. For some reason, the Fever went HEAVY on guard and have little depth at the big spots which is certainly a concern for me as well. Dantas is a liability most of the time and Timpson is quite raw.