Garic Moran
6.8K posts
@GaricMoran
Moran Tice Cap Mgmt LLC - RIA - Precious Metals Equities. Tweets are not investment advice: do your own due diligence. 39 years of macroeconomic investing.
Is today the day that the algorithm's learn that rising oil prices are bullish for Gold and not bearish? Time will tell...
Wolf Street: "The US Treasury debt – all Treasury securities outstanding – jumped by another $1 trillion in five months, and by $2 trillion in 7.5 months to $39 trillion now, just a few months away from the glorious $40 trillion milestone, as tax cuts, spending increases, and now the war in Iran are speeding up the process. Since the debt ceiling in early July, the debt has exploded by $2.8 trillion, with those trillions flying out the window at huge auctions every week so fast they’re hard to see. The illusory flat spots occur during the debt ceiling." As I write my report on "Defense Innovation," the global debt equation has been top of mind. Global defense spending hit $2.7 trillion last year. If the current trend holds, that number will reach $6.6 trillion by 2035, according to UN calculations. And the UN made those calculations before the US' actions in Venezuela and Iran (obviously, trend busting developments). Many of world's most indebted countries are also the ones driving the acceleration in defense spending (Japan, France, Canada, the US, China, South Korea, Italy, etc.). Last year, the World Economic Forum asked economists in their “Chief Economists Outlook” survey about how governments will fund increasing defense spending and 86% of respondents said governments will increase public borrowing while just 25% claimed tax increases were likely. In January, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warned that, by 2035, Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget could add $5.8 trillion to the national debt when interest is considered. Singapore-based think tank Quantum Economics and Geonomics has calculated that if the EU27 funds defense spending at 3% of GDP solely through debt, it’d balloon their aggregate budget deficit from 3.4% of GDP to 6% of GDP. As I write the report Ray Dalio keeps ringing in my head: "There won't be a default — the central bank will come in, and we’ll print the money and buy it. And that’s where there’s the depreciation of money.” Sample a Sage Road Research report here: sageroadresearch.com/products/the-r…. Interested in subscribing? Message me. Wolf Street link: wolfstreet.com/2026/03/19/bon…
"The issue is not supply. The 140mn bl figure discussed by US officials on oil-on-water does not indicate the full picture," one senior Gulf official said. "Oil-on-water today includes production from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq, as well as from our western oil company partners in joint ventures, loaded on tankers stuck within the strait." #oott
TRUMPY: I'll hold your coat and here's a pistol. Best to place the muzzle squarely against your forehead. Allies: Fuck You, TRUMPY! Good People of the World: Hurrah, the Washington War Party is finally OVER AND DONE!!
You don’t have to be too deeply versed on private markets to see what a complete disaster the situation is right now. It’s people who get duped by nonsense minutia who miss the forest for the trees. You don’t have the worst bankruptcy cycle since the great financial crisis with that serious credit stress on corporate balance sheets.
Grok, how did Gold perform in the 2 energy crises of 1970s? "Gold performed exceptionally well during the two major energy crises of the 1970s, acting as a strong safe-haven asset and inflation hedge amid oil price shocks, stagflation (high inflation + stagnant growth + unemployment), dollar weakness, and geopolitical turmoil."
Chris Whalen: "Private credit could be one of the biggest busts we've ever seen on Wall Street."
