Luke Gormen&Advisor

222 posts

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Luke Gormen&Advisor

Luke Gormen&Advisor

@GarikSmit

Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT). Author of "The Mr. X Interviews, Volumes I & II.” I never solicit via DM's. RT not endorsements.

Katılım Kasım 2010
216 Takip Edilen39 Takipçiler
Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
Greer reiterates his own Davos 2026 speech announcing the US is moving to Hamiltonian economics & Bessent's NY Econ Club speech & WSJ op-ed of 4 weeks ago announcing same This requires high tariffs & settling trade deficits in a neutral reserve asset (gold) at a floating price🤔
Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

Jamieson Greer: "If America doesn’t develop and implement its own policies to protect its industry and its workers, we will end up being policy takers. So if we’re not policymakers, we end up being policytakers." I think this is among the most important points Greer makes in this New York Times interview, but it is not nearly as well-understood by policymakers around the world as it should be. What Greer is arguing is that in a hyperglobalized world in which some economies exert much greater control over their external accounts, while others exert much less, if the former also implement aggressive domestic industrial policies, they will be able to externalize the resulting imbalances through their trade and capital accounts. This has extremely important implications that mainstream economists almost alway miss. Not only are economies that exert much greater control over their external accounts able to determine their domestic imbalances, they are also able to determine the domestic imbalances of their more open trade partners through their control of both countries' external imbalances. In effect the former are able to make their domestic industrial policies also the industrial polices, in reverse, of the latter. For example, if a country that can control its external accounts decides that as a matter of domestic industrial policy it wants to shift out of producing services and/or commodities and into manufacturing, and so increase its share of global manufacturing, its more open trade partners will automatically reduce their share of global manufacturing as they shift either into services, like the EU, or into commodity production, like Brazil. There will of course be constituencies in the EU that say that producing services is better than producing manufactured goods, and constituencies in Brazil that say that producing commodities is better than producing manufactured goods, and in some cases they may even be right. But the point that they miss is that these shifts were not the result of local market conditions, nor of the decisions of their own policymakers. The shifts were imposed upon them by the policymakers of their more closed and more aggressive trade partners. The changes in their economies were designed, in other words, not to accommodate their own economic needs but rather to accommodate the economic needs of their trade partners. It should be obvious (but isn't to many economists) that this is not how free markets work. nytimes.com/2026/07/20/pod…

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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
1/ I’m recording a 5-10 min YouTube video to be released later this week; pls drop some questions below & I’ll touch on as many as I can on a best efforts basis. Thx! (Also, pls feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel.)
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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
2/ Here’s a link to my YouTube channel; you can subscribe here to see this and future bi-weekly 5-10 minute update videos: @lukegromenffttllc?app=desktop" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@lukegromenfft
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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
@TonyNashNerd What happens if we lower prices by 70%? OpenAI has a down round in funding. What happens if OpenAI has a down round in funding? Big, big trouble across markets.
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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
Big, and very important, signpost 👇
David Sacks@DavidSacks

This is concerning. For the first time, a Chinese model Kimi K3 has taken #1 on the Frontend Code Arena and is scoring at or near the frontier on other benchmarks. Meanwhile America is tying itself in knots: politicians and bureaucrats are banning new data centers, piling on state regulations, and pushing for new federal agencies to pre-approve frontier models. This is how you lose the AI race. The rest of the world won’t play by our rules if we bog ourselves down. Permissionless innovation is how America won the internet and became the technological envy of the world. We can do it again with AI -- while addressing risks in a targeted way -- or we’ll watch our lead evaporate.

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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
Entry points matter... ...and today, the Warren Buffett Metric (Total US equity market cap/US GDP), both standalone and adjusted for US Federal debt (b/c it will eventually have to be monetized) are MUCH higher than they were on January 3, 2000 start date below: Via @FGMR
Luke Gromen tweet media
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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
"...now, having threatened most nations on Earth with tariffs or sanctions in the past 18 months, & having failed to specifically define what I mean by 'illicit', 'political terrorism', or 'political violence', who wants to buy my bonds & stablecoins so I can seize them at will?" /sarc
Luke Gromen tweet media
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signüll
signüll@signulll·
absolutely remarkable. china spent decades compressing american manufacturing margin but that was never infinitely reproducible & the marginal price is never ~zero. the chinese are effectively burning american capitalism to the ground.
Polymarket@Polymarket

BREAKING: China's Kimi K3 ranks #1 on the Frontend Code Arena, surpassing Claude Fable 5.

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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
Seemingly moving toward the “Yes, China’s cheaper but the quality is worse” to “Uh-oh, China’s cheaper AND better” tipping point many Rust Belt manufacturing execs became all-too-familiar with 2002-2020… …just seemingly much faster than it happened in manufacturing.
Zephyr@zephyr_z9

Crazy big boi numbers from Kimi K3

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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
4/ The 1914-45 period was then followed by a Cold War during which humanity came close to ending itself in a nuclear holocaust at least 2-3 times, again via "technological advancement" that drove "productivity."
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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
Entrepreneurship & small business beats big corporations over next 10 years. When combined with what I was told last year by a high level Fortune 50 exec ("60% of success in a big corporation is just showing up"), it implies a fair degree of corporate job losses.
TFTC@TFTC21

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "AI is going to let small business compete with big business. A business that used to take 10 people to start, you can start with one or two."

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