Leopold Garneau

J'ai passé des semaines à analyser 30 ans de cycles IPO (1995–2025)🧐. Résultat : à chaque fois que la liquidité explose + les méga-IPO s'accumulent + l'euphorie monte... une correction suit dans les 6 à 14 mois 🥳. SpaceX (1.5 T 💸),OpenAI( 800 M 💸), Anthropic — ce cluster de méga-IPO IA pourrait être le signal ultime. Nous sommes exactement dans cette configuration. Maintenant. Voici ce que l'histoire nous enseigne : En 1999, la Fed inondait les marchés. Le CAPE frôlait 44x. Les IPO tech se multipliaient. Tout le monde était convaincu que "cette fois c'est différent". Le Nasdaq a perdu 78% dans les deux ans qui ont suivi 🥶. En 2021, la Fed injectait 5 000 Md$ en 18 mois. Rivian entrait en bourse à 86 Md$ sans avoir livré un seul camion à grande échelle. Coinbase, Robinhood, WeWork. Les IPO sans profits représentaient 85% du marché. Un an plus tard, le Nasdaq perdait 33% 👺. 🚨Aujourd'hui, le CAPE est à 35x. La Fed a resserré, mais la liquidité globale reste historiquement élevée. Et dans les prochains mois, trois des entreprises les plus valorisées de la planète pourraient frapper à la porte des marchés publics simultanément. Ce n'est pas une prédiction. C'est un signal à surveiller. J'ai compilé tout ça dans un rapport gratuit de 30 pages : 📊 Corrélations sur 30 ans entre la Fed, M2, le CAPE et les volumes d'IPO 🏦 Études de cas détaillées : 1999–2000, 2007, 2021 ⚠️ Les 6 signaux d'alerte composites à surveiller dès maintenant 🔮 2 scénarios probabilistes pour 2026 💡 Pourquoi les méga-IPOs IA pourraient être le signal ultime de ce cycle Pas de paywall. Pas de newsletter. Pas de pitch. Juste l'analyse — parce que je pense que tout le monde devrait avoir accès à ce type de recherche. Envoyez-moi votre courriel en DM ou en réponse, je vous envoie le PDF directement. Si vous trouvez ça utile, un partage aide à faire circuler l'information auprès de ceux qui en ont besoin. 🙏 — Léopold Garneau Research📺 @Garneau_Research" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@Garneau_Resea… | 🐦 @Garneau_Capital

@RakoQuant @bluenblaq Nietzsche is better tho Feel like stoicism is a coping mechanism (not saying it is bad).

@bluenblaq Where did you come from? Where will you go? Think about those questions deeply

So I ask again, what are we on earth to do exactly, if we're all just gonna diie anyways?

In a few months, when people that bought energy stock The rotation is coming into the next bottleneck

@RakoQuant What do you mean by getting distracted by centralized exchanges

GM☕️ The Strategic Dollar Cost Average system on #ETH is hovering around the midline at the fairly valued range As you already are aware ,from ATLAS COHERENCE the major assets are long and we saw at today's bar close a strong negative rate of change on the Ethereum Trend So, during this period you are going to have to specify the areas that you want to accumulate and respectively distribute your tokens I want to highlight to the people that are interested in my content that now is a very important time and I would advise you to stay focused and not let distractions impact your manual executions on the Centralised Exchanges As always, stay careful and thank you for your time #CryptoInvesting #MarketAnalysis #MacroTrading #Trader

I hope you are not shorting. Volatility is coming be ready.

Ever heard about rotation Gold then silver S&p500 then Nasdaq and small caps After ? $BTC then altcoins ? What is your take ? Millionaires in the making ?

I see this chart a lot right now. Take closer look at the chart here. When Zcash tops BTC tops as weel. NOT WHEN Zcash RALLIES.

@antibearthesis energy, nuclear, healthcare (peptides), Space, copper, rare earth. These are the next 100%

This market feels completely uninvestable - S&P at ATHs - Gold at ATHs - Housing is fucked - Bonds are useless - Dollar is melting Every asset looks overpriced WHERE DO YOU EVEN PUT YOUR MONEY?

You would not say the same thing if you were in 2005 A techno crash in due time will come and when it does, it is not a V-shape recovery, look at intel Cisco charts. But yeah long term high risk is better (diversified)

@antibearthesis You would not say the same thing if you were in 2005 A techno crash sooner a later will come and when it does, it is not a V-shape recovery, look at intel Cisco charts. But yeah long term high risk is better (diversified)

Why would anyone in their 20s buy $VOO instead of $QQQ?

Le marché voit ce rally comme un piège. ⚠️ Funding rates négatifs depuis des jours. Sentiment au plancher, personne ne veut être long. Pourtant la macro raconte autre chose : → PMI > 50, expansion qui persiste 📊 → Rotation risk-on agressive dans les semis → Small caps qui commencent à participer La séquence historique a toujours été la même : macro → semis → small caps → BTC/alts. On track ce setup depuis le dernier FOMC. 🔍 140K reste la cible structurelle sur la liquidité globale. 🎯 If you are eager to know more about GLI go to @HikaruXBT #btc #bull #bear

@GMartin_0 zoom out

#Bitcoin liquidations $3B in liquidations toward $85k vs a potential $13B liquidation cascade toward $73k. The downside liquidity pool remains significantly larger.

@_ctm_crypto look at funding rates maybe the flush is above

$BTC This is actually crazy. Every time open interest has spiked significantly during this bear market a larger correction followed shortly after. Now open interest has reached its highest level since the beginning of February. This suggests that positioning is once again becoming crowded, increasing the likelihood of a larger flush once momentum starts to slow down.

@seth_fin Well I miss the time when everyone you ask you about crypto . Like EVERYONE. What do you think is next. Is a great time to ... ? What do you answer to that. Personally, I say do not buy if you do not have conviction only conviction makes you buy at 20k or 63k

Gold will consolidate after this HTF breakout. Profit taking has only begun. $BTC is still down -40% from the high, after a 53% correction. Would you like to see this happen? A major BTC bull run to begin. If God wills it

TACO from Trump is next ? Probably.

@0xresurekt Well look at the Atlantic FED expectation of Real GDP. PMI comes along

Ok, a Bearish post for a change There is no doubt that Bitcoin is following the PMI not the 4-year cycle. If you don't see it, I can't help you But what if... What if PMI doesn't violently expand any time soon? What if it remains in this sideways hellscape for a very long time, or even goes down again for a bit? It already looks like it is compressing and losing volatility over time Why does it have to violently expand?

@dangambardello A sample of 3 occurences is not enough to draw conclusion but many people do. Liquidity Macro Business cycle are the main factors driving the market The halving cycle does not have the same influance as it was.

I think most people are waiting until Fall for a crypto bottom, just because of a 4 year cycle calendar. I’m sorry, but that’s just crazy to me.

@bariksis He cannot even if he wanted. Which he does not Lowering rate by 50 would be death sentence for the US dollars and rates. The FED is nit a dictature it had a board. Please DYOR

I still firmly believe Kevin Warsh will slash rates by MINIMUM 50 basis points by the June 2026 meeting.

@cryptorover every taco the market ripped wrll see what happrns next.

🇺🇸 US 10Y bond yield is fast approaching the 4.5% level. Trump TACO incoming.

@LintonWorm In crypto espacially, the enormous majority of accumulation is during the manipulation phase. Black swan events are not manipulation

🚨 $BTC BOTTOM IS NOT CONFIRMED - HERE'S WHY Look at the structure on the monthly chart: > Phase 1: Accumulation (we are here now) > Phase 2: Manipulation (deep wick into $48-55k to grab stops, real bottom range) > Phase 3: Distribution (markup into 2027) Every bear market in BTC history made one final liquidity grab before the real bottom This time won't be different Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated