Garrett

Milei's 2024 Davos talk, directly translated to English by AI (by heygen), in his own accent. Better than the dubbed version imo.

@JustHere4Mystry You might die or you might get a Big Mac... Either way, you'll probably die #Supersizeme

@GarrettDurham I have only ever seen one equally uninviting drive-thru, also a McDonalds. I sometimes wonder if it was merely a fever dream, then visit my hometown and see what can only be described as an "unspeakable burger pit"

Okay but how is Vermin Supreme gonna drop the best campaign ad of the cycle?

@NotDerekEstes IMO depends on the semantics around "economy". Market is a leading indicator of the economy, because economy drives earnings and market is priced on future earnings. It's not 1:1 bc multiple expansion can drive values more than earnings, which we've seen over the last few years.

@GarrettDurham If you have a different explanation for why economists don’t think the stock market is a good predicted of the present or future economy, I’m all ears.

So a report shows 3.3 million unemployment insurance claims in a week and the next day the Dow goes UP 800 points? Just goes to show the stock market measures the economic outlook of the super-rich. And if the super-rich can get wealthier while others don’t, something is wrong.

@NotDerekEstes I disagree. The market reacts to the valuation of the future earnings of the companies trading within it. Consumer spending drives 70% of GDP, and therefore drives a huge proportion of those earnings. Unemployment inherently impacts market valuations.

@GarrettDurham But that’s not what I’m talking about anyway. My point is that the stock market primarily reacts to the economic outlook of the rich, whereas the economic outlook for everyone else barely registers. That explains how news could be so bad for most but not for the stock market

@NotDerekEstes Lol yes. The volume of claims is unprecedented. I misspoke, it's not unpredictable. Paragraph 4 usatoday.com/story/money/20…

@GarrettDurham It actually is unprecedented

@NotDerekEstes I mean we've also had some historic down days in the past month, there were a few forecasts predicting a 3M number this week. It's not unprecedented. My only point is that it's not as simple as bad news = market up.

@GarrettDurham Somehow I doubt 3.3 million unemployed in a week, quadruple the next worst week in American history, was priced in

@simonC137 @NotDerekEstes Gotta be KH Estes

Academic friends, I’m trying to decide what name to use for publishing. I know using initials makes your work easier to find, but M. Derek Estes sounds pretentious to me, so I’m leaning towards just Derek Estes. Thoughts?

@NotDerekEstes The very middle person does nothing. Neither making the world better or worse. Be like Joe, Average Joe.

@GarrettDurham Technically it would be 49.999% but I just made it 49% for the sake of simplicity

A thought I had this morning: 49% of people make the world a better place when they die. Now I’m trying to decide whether that’s true or not.

@NotDerekEstes Yeah fair point. I just wanted some funny nihilism this morning. 😎

@GarrettDurham I’m just thinking of averages. 49% of all people are on average worse than 50% of the others. So any replacement-person, on average, would make the world better.

💕🍜 ramen is sooo good🍜 💕

@abacusKevin @SoberLook Yay, now we can all churn sideways together 😁 #2ndChance

@KevDraudt Does this same phenomenon have an effect on US currency relative to rest of world? I.e. could this weaken the dollar?

How is #oil affecting the stock market? Here is a good commentary: horsemancapital.com/marketviews/ru… In summary, US-produced oil has been cheap compared to non-US oil, providing tailwinds for US companies' relative out-performance globally. Now we have headwinds that may reverse the trend

I honestly really just want socks for Christmas

@NotDerekEstes Not all men, Derek 😉😏

I can definitively say my wife is not 2% less smart than me.

@NotDerekEstes 😂 Reading it in context it's actually pretty funny. Ironically, this totally misleading headline might actually have the effect of swinging votes to Cruz lol.

Oh man. Just when you thought the stakes couldn’t get any higher.

Lessons from the behind the scenes believers: 1) They don’t wait to be asked to serve. 2) They genuinely love the Lord. 3) They don’t crave thanks or praise.