Rick-in-Texas 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
8.2K posts

Rick-in-Texas 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
@GenXMofo
Here for the news and to occasionally comment. Fan of the University of Houston Cougars, the Astros, and the greatest American rock band Cheap Trick. No DMs.
Texas Katılım Haziran 2021
6.8K Takip Edilen3.6K Takipçiler

@brianeskow I actually enjoyed your podcast. Interesting to listen to your journey and to hear you reason things out publicly. It’s obvious you have a lot of common sense but are not afraid to question yourself either. Best wishes.
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@margbrennan What I always think about you is it’s amazing how someone so beautiful on the outside is so ugly on the inside
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Rick-in-Texas 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 retweetledi

@stevenfiorillo @muddywatersre @SoFi Let’s be real sofi in five years will probaly be around 75-125$
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My phone has been going off nonstop due to the short report from @muddywatersre regarding @SoFi. Here is my opinion on the Personal Loan Charge Off Rate which is just one aspect.
The Muddy Waters Thesis
The Muddy Waters short thesis relies heavily on the idea that SOFI is artificially suppressing its Personal Loan charge off rate to protect the Fair Value of its assets. Muddy Waters argues that SOFI's true charge off rate is sitting closer to 6.1% which is drastically different from the 2.80% annualized net rate the company reported in Q4 2025. They claim SOFI pulls this off by offloading distressed loans just days before the 120-day mandatory charge off window, and stashing defaulted loans in off-balance-sheet Variable Interest Entities (VIEs).
If SOFI had to plug that 6.1% rate into its discounted cash flow (DCF) models, Muddy Waters estimates it would wipe out $259 million in Fair Value gains, dragging down 2025 Adjusted EBITDA by almost 25%. To back this up, the report points to court filings showing SOFI sold $62.5 million in defaulted loans to Eltura Ventures, LLC for just $5 million (about 8 cents on the dollar) to dodge the charge-off hit.
The Reality of SOFI’s Disclosures
If you take a close look at SOFI’s financial disclosures and standard banking practices they paint a very different picture. The idea that SOFI is secretly burying losses assumes their metrics are meant to mislead investors. In reality, SOFI openly details these exact moves in its SEC filings.
Their earnings releases clearly state that the reported 2.80% Q4 2025 charge off rate already bakes in asset sales, new originations, and late-stage delinquency sales. Management even models out what the numbers would look like without these sales to give the market total transparency. Their filings explicitly note that if they hadn't sold those late stage delinquent loans that the all-in annualized net charge off rate for Q4 2025 would have been around 4.4%. This would have been 0.2% higher than in Q3 2025.
Capital Optimization, Not Manipulation
Selling late stage delinquent loans right before the 120-day mark isn't a shady accounting loophole. From what I have researched, it’s standard practice for capital optimization across the consumer lending industry. Federal rules indicate that personal loans generally need to be charged off at 120 days past due. By the time a loan gets that close to the wire, the odds of internal collections recovering the principal are practically zero.
Offloading the asset at a deep discount to a specialized debt buyer makes strategic sense. It brings in immediate cash that can be redeployed into new, performing loans, and it permanently hands off the headache of tail-end collection risks, legal fees, and operational drag. SOFI is upfront about this as they refer to it as a value enhancing move driven by better recovery capabilities and the retention of servicing rights. Calling a routine distressed asset sale a fraud mechanism ignores basic economics. SOFI getting 8 cents on the dollar in cold hard cash today is objectively better than taking a total accounting loss and wasting years chasing pennies through the courts.
The Math on Vintage Performance
Zooming out to look at the massive block of loans originated from Q1 2020 through Q3 2025, 60% of the principal has already been paid down. This has generated significant levels of cash flow for SOFI. On the paid off balance, SOFI has taken just 6.8% in net cumulative losses, which represents only 4.1% of the total original balance.
SOFI operates with an underwriting tolerance capped at an 8% life of loan cumulative net loss, which they publicly state. To breach that 8% limit on the 2020–2025 cohort, the remaining 40% of unpaid principal would have to suffer a catastrophic 10% charge-off rate. When I factor in tighter credit standards and how more recent cohorts are performing compared to the historical cohorts, it makes the odds of hitting those loss levels incredibly slim in my opinion.
I feel that the internal default assumptions in SOFI's Fair Value models are backed up by actual, realized vintage performance data, directly contradicting the claim of systemic manipulation.
Conclusion
Everyone has the right to their own opinion. I believe that there are many holes in the short report from Muddy Waters. I plan on making a detailed video about all of the aspects I disagree with.
@Futurenvesting @Futurenvesting @Kross_Roads is there anything I missed on this aspect? This will make for a great discussion when all of us speak tomorrow and Friday night.
@anthonynoto I believe I have everything correct for $SOFI and if I don't I apologize in advance.

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@octalan @stevenfiorillo @muddywatersre @SoFi Like they want to muddy the waters about a stock to take advantage of scaredy cats who believe them and sell
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@stevenfiorillo @muddywatersre @SoFi Even the name Muddy Water sounds sketchy. "Muddy" like they want to drap your name through Mud. Screw them twats!
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@RoKhanna Destroying the oppressive and murderous Iranian regime is more important than your TDS.
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$200 billion would pay for free college for every American, $10 day childcare, 1000 new trade schools, the 40% federal share of special needs education and a lot more.
What are we even doing here?
MAGA is now Iran first?
Jeff Stein@JStein_WaPo
SCOOP: The Pentagon asked the White House today for more than *$200 billion* for the Iran war supplemental, sources say Some White House aides think Congress won't support b/c it's so big Will tee up giant battle in Congress
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Get this foreigner the hell out
Libs of TikTok@libsoftiktok
Oregon State Senator Kayse Jama who is from Somalia and can barely speak English demands ICE “get the hell out”
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Rick-in-Texas 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 retweetledi

@unlimited_ls How is this even possible? Just throw her out.
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NEW: Patient has been squatting in a Florida hospital for five months and refuses to leave her bed despite being discharged, a lawsuit alleges
Charlotte Paynter, 69, has allegedly been occupying Room 373 at Tallahassee Memorial Hospital since October
Paynter has allegedly refused to leave despite repeated efforts by staff to complete her discharge safely
The hospital provided her with a written order to vacate on November 24
Tallahassee Memorial says her continued occupation has diverted resources from other patients
The hospital is asking a state judge for an injunction to have Paynter removed and to allow the county sheriff’s office to assist if necessary

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18 YEARS OLD… 25 YEARS IN PRISON
A Texas teen just got hit with 25 years for a convenience store robbery.
The judge made it clear - probation wasn’t even on the table due to his previous record while being held in jail.
Said he didn’t have a real chance at success outside.
His family broke down in court as the sentence was handed down.
At 18… your whole life is just starting -
But one decision can change everything forever.
Do you think this sentence fits the crime… or is it too much? ⬇️ 🇺🇸
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Remember just before this war with Iran started, how I told you the train of Chinese Cargo Planes were flying in Chinese Air Defense/SAM systems & radars? And that there was almost certainly Chinese government & military personnel manning them, because they didn’t trust IRGC to use them correctly or effectively? Turns out that was on point. We didn’t just vaporize the Chinese-made *and crewed* Iranian Air Defenses, we also vaporized a bunch of highly trained Chinese radar & SAM crews.
youtu.be/wPKJ1DCeA1o?si…

YouTube
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