Gentle Sword

@SawyerMerritt @elonmusk @aelluswamy @pduan Why is Tesla so slow in scaling unsupervised FSD/Robotaxi to other US cities? It sounds Waymo is ahead in this regard, which fundamentally determines the lion share of Tesla’s stock valuation.

NEWS: Waymo has just launched public robotaxi rides in Nashville, Tennessee. Here is the geofence:

@pmarca Honestly, this report doesn’t fit reality. New graduates majoring in CS are facing the toughest environment to find a job. Anyone who agrees can continue…

"Tech job openings rebounded sharply in 2026, challenging popular narrative that AI is wiping out engineering roles...more than 67,000 software eng job openings, highest level in 3 years. Listings have doubled since a trough in mid-2023." businessinsider.com/ai-isnt-killin…

@JoshWest247 @DavidMoss So the video of “broken Robotaxi” is actually an April Fool’s Day prank? 🤓

We had a blast today! Unsupervised is 🚀🚀🚀🚀 INSANE Video coming soon! 👉 @JoshWest247?sub_confirmation=1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@JoshWest247?s…

@wholemars It is the ability of unsupervised FSD to SCALE NATIONWIDE RAPIDLY that concerns the investors, to be honest. This also explains the 2026 performance of the stock.

10 billion FSD (Supervised) miles holds no special significance One misconception I hear sometimes is that Elon said you need 10 billion miles to do unsupervised. What he actually said is that you need ~10 billion miles of training data. Training data is manual driving, not self-driving. Unsupervised FSD has already been deployed in Austin.

@EricLDaugh Why on earth does GOP want to pass the law AT THE EXPENSE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, as claimed by this Senator? Shouldn’t the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT pick up ALL THE TABS for implementing this law? The total cost is A DROP OF WATER IN THE OCEAN of FED budget. Pass the correct law!!!

🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: "Republican" Sen. Lisa Murkowski faces mass calls to be PRIMARIED and REPLACED after she storms the Senate floor to oppose the SAVE America Act A Republican who is supposed to support election integrity opposes it! Absolutely RIDICULOUS.

@wholemars “Depending on how quickly autonomy SCALE” Isn’t this a trillion dollar question, for which Tesla hasn’t proven to solve yet?

Uber had a $10.6 billion accumulated deficit at the end of 2025. That’s the amount they’ve lost since the company started, meaning they haven’t truly made any money yet. By contrast, Tesla has retained earnings of $39 billion. Depending on how quickly autonomy scales, it’s conceivable that Uber might never generate earnings that offset what it cost to build the company. Pretty wild.

@BuyZecNeverSell Can you or someone please educate me what is PTFB? 🤔

I smell more $PLTR PTFB

@michaeljburry @CNBC “You cannot be invested in Palantir and not know what is in these posts.” Yes, certainly I can, as I have concluded most of your stuffs are useless and biased garbage! Only schmucks will pay for your 💩💩💩substack.

I tear into $PLTR’s 10-K and look into what some ex-Palantirians thought of my Palantir’s New Clothes piece. You cannot be invested in Palantir and not know what is in these posts. Unlike the past, when MSM put words in my mouth, now that I am laying out all out, @cnbc et al will not cover it. Or maybe they are afraid to cover it. While X shadowbans it. open.substack.com/pub/michaeljbu…

@MikeLongTerm Apparently Burry’s “tomahawk dunk, the killshot” of DSO, has turned out to be a PATHETIC DUD! 🤣🤣🤣

$PLTR lmao 🤣 $17.2m/$4.475 billion= 0.38% to FY2025 revenue And it is going to be less than 0.2% with FY2026 Guidance This is just getting sad!

@jawwwn_ @michaeljburry Classic! 😂😂😂

Palantir mega-bulls @michaeljburry and Brent Thill say CEO Alex Karp is constantly flying and closing deals. They say Karp spends 13-28% of the year in the air! Karp is spending more than double what most executives spend on flying. Massively bullish.

@michaeljburry Just showing how cherry-picking and self-contradictory you are, The ex-FDE (about 2 minutes @48:30) started the talk with “Palantir is NOT a management consultant” and ended with “is a very different kind of beast…” Yet you insist Palantir be valued as a consulting firm! 👎🏿

Eisman podcast, ex $PLTR FDE”Maybe I shouldn't say this, but within Palantir we sometimes mused that all of the value we provided was just getting all of the people in a room together,,,,literally none of those people had ever been in a room together." youtu.be/Rv_rPAQ3M9Q

Just showing how cherry-picking and self-contradictory Michael Burry is, The ex-FDE (2 minutes @48:30) started the talk with “Palantir is NOT a management consultant” and ended with “is a very different kind of beast…” Yet Burry insists Palantir be valued as a consulting firm.

@raines1220 Changing the color from red to green for Tesla bar would look a lot nicer. 🤓

Safety Trajectories: Tesla vs. Waymo

$PLTR The 10-K filing is out. There's a whole lot of nuggets in there. One of my favorites is entitled "Sector and Industry Operating Systems." Just as we saw with Skywise (which is Palantir + Airbus), which recently announced a 10y / $1b extension, Palantir is becoming the central operating system for many industries, including airline, space, shipbuilding, insurance, healthcare, telecommunications, automotive, security and risk management, and government. The product is stick, the moat is deep, and the ROI is immense. Here's the direct quote from the filing: "In addition to supporting individual institutions, our platforms have become central operating systems for entire industries and sectors. We are developing industry operating systems to help companies and government agencies manage operations across their entire organizations. These operating systems allow our software to be distributed at scale to institutions within given industries. We have developed, and are continuing to develop, partnerships in industries such as airline, space, shipbuilding, insurance, healthcare, telecommunications, automotive, security and risk management, and government, which we anticipate will have a significant impact on our business moving forward."

@MikeLongTerm @PalantirTech Now he has stooped to a new low, recycling a story from almost A DECADE AGO! 😂😂😂

BREAKING $PLTR & The Legend Rockefeller🚨🚨🚨 13F Filing- Rockefeller Capital Management(~$200B Fund) increased @PalantirTech position significantly by 771,318 shares or 52.94%. Total : 2,228,272 Shares Looks like Burry kept preying on folks to subscribe for 2-3-4 years old/recycled fake informations where people can search for free, while The legendary family of Rockefeller continuing to build wealth with Palantir!

@michaeljburry It sounds you have exhausted all your ammo, and now have to resort to an ancient story almost A DECADE AGO! Keep trying and do better! 👎🏿👎🏿👎🏿

@Kross_Roads I really wish the infamous Cassandra @michaeljburry could write his analyses/claims in such a detailed and logical way. However, I have seen none. Bravo 👏. This rebuttal is top-notch professional investment grade!

$PLTR Yes, Palantir's DSOs have risen quite a bit, but they actually sit well within the field. So why did their DSO rise so much? Go back to Q2 2023 earnings. Around that time, Karp was getting asked barguments. Rather than refute what's behind a paywall, this is for public consumption, so I will start here. Burry calls these charts "a killshot," which is frankly bizarre, but typical of his argument against Palantir.  This argument is public (attached below), and I encourage you to read it yourself. The problem? It's full of logical fallacies. Let's take a look. FALSE EQUIVALENCY Burry has latched onto DSOs as meaningful for Palantir, but he commits the fallacy of false equivalency. Yes, $ADBE and $HUBS fall into the B2B SaaS umbrella. However, Adobe and HubSpot are "seat-based" or "subscription-based" SaaS with high-velocity, standardized pricing. That's not how Palantir operates, which is why this comparison is particularly poor. Palantir operates on a usage-based pricing. That’s also not unheard of in the space, though it’s less common. What does this mean for Palantir? Simply put, the contracts are tailor-made for the client in most cases, and based on consumption models. Here's a table with several companies comparing their DSOs over the past few years. Tell me, based on the high DSOs, which of these isn't Saas? Trick question. All of them are SaaS. I didn't cherry pick these, but if you don't believe me, input many SaaS names and you'll see that there is no real signal here. Try $SNOW if you want one that's really fun, yet nobody calls Snowflake a consultancy. Why did he pick the companies he did for his post? We can only guess at the motive, but this may be as simple as selection bias. In essence, he's ignoring the differences in data while overemphasizing similarities to support his preconceived conclusion via cherry-picking specific metrics from a very select list of companies.. NON CAUSA PRO CAUSA Yes, Palantir's DSOs have risen quite a bit, but they actually sit well within the field. So why did their DSO rise so much? Per Burry, it is a possible combination of aggressive revenue recognition, concessions, back-end loaded cash, or low ROI. The logical flaw for Burry here is a causal oversimplification, and the primary reason for the increase is pretty straightforward. Go back to Q2 2023 earnings. Around that time, Karp was getting asked about AIP and if/when they would monetize the platform. Karp emphasized taking the whole market first, then monetizing. Per Karp, "We will monetize. Palantir is guilty of many things. People think they thought we were insane. Some people think I'm eclectic. Some analysts think that I am talking something they've never heard of, Right. You know, often right. We have no problem monetizing. We make $2,900,000 per commercial customer across the world. We will figure out how to monetize it. 1st, we're teaching the market what it is. We're getting people on board. We're showing people that these are the kind of problems you'll have to solve if you want To engage in actually making money as opposed to writing neat poetry that may be scary to your enterprise and your board won't let you install anyway. And then we will allow people then we will charge for that." Elsewhere, Karp called this pricing to value, by demonstrating the tremendous ROI first for the customer, then talking money. It's the exact opposite approach of most SaaS companies which emphasize the quick sale and don't care as much about the ROI. Karp actually hasn't changed that strategy. What has changed is NDR is 139% while revenue is 70% Y/Y. Why? Because they are doing exactly as Karp indicated: establishing and delivering extreme value, hence why customers are happy to increase their contracts. In the SaaS world, 120% NDR is considered elite, which is perhaps why Burry (elsewhere in his main article) is in disbelief over the number. HASTY GENERALIZATION "One would think if the customer is so enthusiastic, they would pay on time, or faster. This is not happening." I am assuming, because Dr. Burry is rich, he may have forgotten a simple truth on human nature: no matter how enthusiastic someone is about a product, most of us (organizations or individuals) like to pay at the absolute last minute possible. The fact that I love driving my Tesla does NOT mean I am in a rush to pay the note (2% APR). I like my money working for me. So too for a business. Couple that with the fact that most of those paying the bills at organizations are NOT the same people that are enthusiastic about Palantir software (engineers, c-suiters, etc). This is a hasty and poor generalization. NON-SEQUITUR Even if the observation that Palantir has "consultancy-like" payment cycles was true , the leap to "therefore it is a consultancy worth a single-digit multiple" is a non-sequitur (it does not follow), as it ignores the fundamental economics of the business, beyond the selection bias we previously examined. A consultancy scales by hiring more people; a software company scales by deploying more code. Palantir’s ~80% gross margins (yes, Burry attempts to dismiss this in his main article) and surging revenue per employee are the hallmarks of a scalable software engine, not a labor-intensive firm like Accenture. Palantir headcount is essentially flat despite revenues surging. FINAL THOUGHTS Burry's argument here, much like the ones in his main article, is an analytical leap that simply doesn't land. It's so far from a "killshot" it's comical.

@Beth_Kindig A really really BAD news for the infamous Cassandra @michaeljburry as he is banking on the opposite happening to save his so-called “AI Bubble” trade. Apparently nobody in the professional investment world gives a damn about his substack. 🤣🤣🤣

Alphabet’s $20 billion US bond sale reportedly drew more than $100 billion in demand. $MSFT $META $AMZN $GOOG $ORCL

@michaeljburry It is a joke obviously. I think most of the normal people including the author of this book will agree with me. Only you will phrase it as “came up with the idea”. Have you ever thought that maybe it is only because of your personal bias against Karp? 🤔 👎🏿👎🏿👎🏿

Yes, Karp came up with the idea of spraying detractors with fentanyl-laced urine from drones and said it out loud, according to his biographer in the book, The Philosopher in the Valley. simonandschuster.com/books/The-Phil… I quoted the book in Palantir’s New Clothes.