Geopolitical updates

On Sat, #Egypt FM & Transport Min visited #Eritrea w/ a biz delegation for talks on boosting coop in transport, infra, trade & the #RedSea. It highlights Eritrea’s rising role in the Red Sea, linking diplomacy w/ investment in ports, logistics & broader economic projects. 🇪🇷🇪🇬

US intel: #Iran still retains ~70% of its missile stock & about 70–75% of its launchers. #Tehran still can threaten US bases, Gulf shipping lanes, Israel & regional allies. The war isn’t just draining Iran: it’s also burning through US & allied #interceptor stock at a fast pace.

WSJ: #UAE secretly struck Iran: a massive escalation & a major gamble by #AbuDhabi. If #Tehran sees 🇦🇪 as moving to direct action, the risks are huge: more missile/drone strikes, cyberattacks, shipping disruption, capital flight & damage to the UAEs image as the Gulf’s safe haven

Longterm Israeli security at risk? #Netanyahu wants to reduce #Israeli dependence on US military aid from $3.8 bln a year to $0 in a decade as 60% of Americans view Israel unfavorably & elections are coming. Yet #IDF expenses (6-8% of GDP) set to rise further, expanding the risks

Experts: Iran is successfully splitting the Gulf states: Saudi & Qatar now want a working relationship w #Tehran, while the UAE follows Israel. The UAE leaving #OPEC was a major signal, #AbuDhabi felt betrayed by Gulf states unwilling to take stronger action against Iran.

The beginning of the end? #Russia’s VictoryDay parade rolls on without the usual tanks & missiles, amid fears of #Ukrainian drones. Russia even had to seek a ceasefire from #Ukraine to secure the parade. Putin increased his security detail as frustration grows among Russians.

No tanks or major rocket systems at #Russia’s #VictoryDay parade! And even no recruits! Just aging equipment and video footage, as #Ukrainewar losses visibly hollow out Putin’s biggest showcase & his most symbolic show of strength on the 9th of May.

War in the Gulf escalates. #Tehran says the US attacked an #Iranian oil tanker & a ship, prompting a large-scale #IRGC response involving ball. missiles, cruise missiles & drones carrying heavier explosive warheads. Iran claims 3 US warships suffered sign. damage & had to retreat

The US potentially lifting sanctions on #Eritrea is a major geopolitical win for #Asmara. Eritrea gains legitimacy, economic breathing room, potential investment and stronger leverage in the Horn of Africa while the US gains strategic influence along the #RedSea.

#Iran doesn’t want to lose its main leverage, control over the Strait of #Hormuz, no matter the cost. It has targeted commercial vessels even under US escort, reportedly attacked a US warship, and struck the #UAE to show it can disrupt the global economy and project strength.

US to lift #Eritrea #sanctions as Red Sea tensions reshape alliances, document says. Regional diplomats say the U.S. move would also ​send a message to landlocked #Ethiopia that Washington does not support any forceful quest for sea access

#Sudan accusing #Ethiopia & the UAE of involvement in an airport attack & warning it may respond, raises the stakes for #Addis. It already lost control of large parts of Amhara, Oromia & Tigray and angered Eritrea & 🇪🇬. To some analysts Addis seems without strategy & overwhelmed.

#Iran believes the US is preparing a ground invasion of its islands and mainland, citing troop buildups and new systems in the Gulf. #Tehran sees UAE-based support for these operations and is preemptively striking #Emirati targets to deter and punish involvement.