Gilles SAMAHA || جيل سماحة

👎👎👎 لم يتجرؤ على المهربين والمتهربين ولم يتجرؤ على زيادة ضرائب على الريوع والكماليات والتعديات. استسهلو الشلف من عموم اللبنانيين : زيادة على البنزين والTVA يعني زيادة على التنقل و غلاء أسعار على الجميع. صحيح "خبراء" ويمكن"اوادم"، بس جبناء 🤷‍♂️ شو النفع ؟ x.com/i/status/20234…

@karimchebaklo @Rulaelhalabi @Salah_Halawi @ElGherbalOrg @MichelKozah @Mouniryouniss الشركة طلعت بيان إنو هي انسحبت وإدارة المرفق طلعت بيان إنو هي ألغت المناقصة. ايا وحدة المزبوطة؟ 🙏

@Salah_Halawi @ElGherbalOrg @Rulaelhalabi @MichelKozah @Mouniryouniss صلاح ، ما في شي مخالف لقانون الشراء العام. و الشركة انسحبت لعدم وجود تنافس من الصباح عند فض العروض و للمرة الثانية . اول مرة من شهر كمان فازو لوحدهم و انسحبو و اضطرينا نعمل مناقصة ثانية. و اليوم كمان لما طلعو لحالم مقدمين انسحبو.

There you go, they’ve just issued a letter. @ElGherbalOrg @MichelKozah @Mouniryouniss

@SergeZarka سرقة الماي والهدر التقني أكتر بكتير من سرقة الكهرباء. ما في حل بلا تركيب عدادات، من ضمن خطة شاملة.

لَو في مَي واصلة على البيوت ما كان في صهاريج و لا اصحاب صهاريج و لا كان في جهات منتفعة من هيدا القطاع الخارج عن القانون. اشتغلوا بقى على المَي توصل لكل بيت ٢٤/٢٤ و بلا أعذار ما بتقنع حدا!!

@ADcwar75983 @Salah_Halawi كان مخفي، صار ظاهر.

@GillesSamaha @Salah_Halawi وهيذا البند موجود من وقت إتفاقية لوقف النار بأول إسناد

شو هالكذبة. هدنة مع جرف، تدمير، تغيير معالم، تهجير وقصف يومي. شكلنا رايحين على اتفاق مثل معاهدة ڤرساي اللي اذل فيها الحلفاء المانيا بعد الحرب العالمية الاولى وتم اقتطاع اراضي منها.

@federal10452 @MichelKozah @Toufiicc Swiss model is different from US model of federalism. However, 23 of the 26 swiss cantons are fully contiguous. Only 3 cantons have one or two offshoots.

@MichelKozah @Toufiicc No. Swiss federation plan not the American one… fedleb.org

لبنان مثل لوحة موزاييك الفيدرالية يجب ان تكون مناطقية وليس طائفية

@WalstarW قص الفرشة بالصاروخ، بشكل أنو الطول من ميلة القزاز يكون قد طولا، ومن تاني ميل قد طولك.

@Rulaelhalabi @MOEmoe867470299 @masss11 شو صار بالتحديد؟

@MOEmoe867470299 Watch this footage with the volume turned up.

‼️ الضربة على المنصورية (مار روكز - الدكوانة) اليوم ما قطعت، ولا رح تقطع 🤔 - هل كانت رسالة؟ 80% - اعتراض (interception)؟ 15% - أو مجرد خطأ؟ 5%

@hercr0ss @TarekTamo91 كارلوس كان مستشار جمعية المصارف بنص الأزمة (٢٠٢٠-٢٠٢١)

كتير عم اضحك (مع انه ما لازم) كيف في بنت عملت meltdown سياسي قام الكل بصوت واحد سأل اذا "تركها" لأن هاي ثاني أو ثالث مرة بتغير رأيها بالتيار 😂

@MonaKnowz @ghidaarnaout You are totally right. Unless he is accepting to transfer/receive all corruption money and real estate from his father to him, which would be practically... money laundering. 🙏

@ghidaarnaout ⚠️⚠️Saleh always distances himself from his father and has actually admitted on many occasions that his father is corrupt! So shut the nonsense!⚠️

Nothing says “true Lebanese” more than the nepo baby of a corrupt politician who was a suspect in the port explosion, who embezzled money from Lebanese civilians to send his son to Cambridge and who is still buying buildings illegally for his “estranged” son

@heraldgardner @FrontLibanais @Rad_LB You know that most "christian federalists" vote for those parties. They considers them "بالجيبة" eventhough they do not have a political project. ?

1. Me criticizing them is to wake them up and to out social pressure in them. They are political elite comfortable with the current system. They are scum and pieces of shot. 2. Bit wether i like it or not they are the 2 largest christian parties 3. The only way toward to save the christians is through federalism or partition and for that we need to speak in one voice ie agree with Bkerké on a plan

LF and FPM have to meet in Bkerké and agree on a choice to offer Islam: federalism or partition. We have to be honest with the Muslims. Either federalism or partition. Please retweet massively

@Ralphsaade @_ZeinabKh The "mafia" is not so weak, and it existed since before the militia. So, what you are saying is partially true. It will take some time.

@_ZeinabKh I blame everything on the Mafia-Militia relationship. Once the militia falls, what’s remaining of the mafia will fall as well. Investments, help & support from the whole world will flood the country and everything I mentioned will be achieved.

Hezbollah will eventually be disarmed and defeated for good. Lebanese people will be surprised by the opportunities and changes that will happen almost immediately after Hezbollah’s downfall. Investors will flood the country, electricity 24/7, tourism will boom, business will boom and many things will be solved. You’ll be amazed. I’ll revisit this tweet one day to remind you that it has come true.

@masss11 كيف بيتنقل عادي من لبنان عالعراق عاميريكا؟ مين بكون فعليا؟

ممتاز. تابع. تابع.

@asadabukhalil طبعا، الثقة نسبية كمان.

لا أثق بأي وسيلة إعلاميّة في هذه الحرب.

@clement_molin Why are numbers relared to iranian attack missile/drones and US/GCC defense missiles are "opaque"? Do we have accurate estimations?

The coming week will be crucial to know : -If the US/Israel have enough munitions to continue the war -If Iran will be able to continue their retaliatory strikes -If an internal front/protest will start

After 8 days of war between Iran 🇮🇷 and the USA/Israel 🇺🇸🇮🇱, here is a new MAP UPDATE In total, the US and Israel conducted around 4 500 strikes across Iran, while Iran retaliated with 3 500 vectors, including ~905 missiles. 🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️

@YusufErim34 Who is arming PKK?

I was asked a couple of days ago would Türkiye take part in the War on Iran and I answered no, not unless major red lines were crossed. So what were those red lines? 1) Türkiye being attacked 2) PKK affiliates being armed and attempting to seize land 3) massacre of ethnic Turkic population of Iran. It seems like over the past 24 hours all three red lines have either been crossed or there are preparations for them being crossed. I have a bad feeling that in the coming weeks if this war doesn’t end quick it’s going to be difficult for Türkiye to sit this one out.

@MichelKozah احتساب ال٦٠ يوم ببلش من ايمتا؟

Trump has 59 days to finish the war. Under the War Powers Resolution, a U.S. President can deploy forces without Congressional authorization for only 60 days. After that, he must either secure approval from Congress or withdraw U.S. forces. The clock is ticking.

@Hraoui17 ملاحظة قانونية/تقنية: عمليا إيران قصفت "المملكة المتحدة" مباشرة وليس قبرص. هول مش قواعد بقبرص، هول أراضي بريطانية، على عكس القواعد المستضافة في البلدان العربية.

أطلقت إيران صاروخين باتجاه قبرص يلي بتستضيف أصولًا عسكرية بريطانية مهمة، بما في ذلك قاعدة سلاح الجو الملكي في أكروتيري ومواقع استخباراتية ولكن قبرص = الاتحاد الأوروبي فأي هجوم يستهدف قبرص يفترض أن يُقابل بموقف أوروبي موحد وإجراءات تعكس مسؤولية الاتحاد في حماية أراضي دوله الأعضاء وسيادتها

@ArianeElmas @MokhtarGhazzawi Declared expatriates remittances = 6,5B. Undeclared amounts could be equal.

Lebanon has become incredibly and ridiculously expensive. Most salaries don’t exceed $1,000.. Please explain how do they get by? I’m really interested. For food & daily consumption it could be enough but add electricity, municipalities taxes, one emergency.. What am I missing?

@MichelKozah ما بيفتح بلا إشتراك 😒

Only 10 banks would be able to meet their obligations in the first year, and as few as six have the liquidity to remain solvent beyond year four

@AzarsTweets It still needs 1 to 2 years 🤔

@GillesSamaha I think that is the plan yes

BDL is burning FX at a pace not seen since pre-2023, excluding a wartime spike, with a sharp acceleration since Souaid became governor in April. Headline reserve numbers also mask BDL’s growing use of taxpayer funds without Parliamentary appropriation ($1.5bn spent since April). BDL’s FX reserves come from two main sources. First, foreign currency generated from its own ongoing operations (its “normal” reserves). Second, foreign currency effectively financed by taxpayers: the government deposits unspent tax money at BDL, and BDL uses those LBP deposits to buy dollars. If Parliament chose to spend the accumulated surplus, BDL would have two options: (1) Sell back to the market the dollars BDL previously purchased using the fiscal surplus, which would keep the exchange rate stable and preserve the surplus’s original value, but that would result in a significant decrease in BDL's FX. (2) Alternatively, to avoid giving back those dollars, BDL could impose a haircut on the Treasury account, either by letting the LBP depreciate (or maybe in the future, through a direct haircut). In practice, BDL is already spending the dollars it acquires using taxpayer surpluses. That means it cannot credibly accommodate a future withdrawal of those public funds without critically depleting its usable reserves or imposing an LBP depreciation and broader disruption. Since 2023, a growing share of BDL's FX reserves has been financed by taxpayers (blue area in the chart below). Of the roughly $11 billion in FX BDL reports today, only about $1-2 billion is attributable to BDL’s own operations (red area in the chart). The rest, $8-9 billion, appears to have been accumulated using taxpayer funds and are still owed to taxpayers. Put differently, without the large fiscal surpluses of the last few years, BDL would likely be operating with critically low FX reserves of just $1 billion, all else being equal. It cannot afford to fund the current depositor circulars (among other expenses) from its own resources. Therefore, it has been spending taxpayer money to fund most of that, taxpayer money that it can no longer afford to give back. The institutional implication is that BDL is effectively spending taxpayer money without an explicit parliamentary appropriation. Individuals and businesses have paid higher taxes since 2023, and a meaningful share of that excess has been absorbed and spent by BDL outside any transparent budget law. This use of taxpayer resources has accelerated significantly since Souaid became governor. Transparency and good governance would require Parliament to pass an explicit law authorizing transfers from the Treasury to BDL, for example through a defined recapitalization mechanism with clear amounts, purposes, and oversight. People deserve to know how their money is being spent. Instead, the current approach allows BDL to convert and spend taxpayer resources unilaterally, leaving Parliament with reduced practical control over public funds. Even if you support recapitalizing BDL with public money, it should be done transparently and through Parliament. Letting any public institution spend billions outside meaningful parliamentary oversight is a terrible idea.