Gio🕊

Roberto de Zerbi is a complete nutter but we need someone who can galvanise these players. We are sleepwalking into a relegation battle. Would he take a short term interim gig back in the Prem until the summer on big money?

🚨Introducing Tactical Power Ratings (TPR) Measures any manager containing Opta-era data using two sophisticated metrics; • Shot Domination % = (Shots For / Shots For + Shots Against) * 100. Weighed based on game-states to eliminate desperate attempts or the leading team 'backing off' when maintaining a comfortable lead (100% if the score is within 2-goal deficit, 45% for =3, 15% for >=4). Benefits teams that can kill the game off early and removes stat-padding. The number is then normalized against the league average of the specific season as well as the strength of the opponent, ensuring it is NOT due to the strength of the players, but by how much the manager tactically outperforms his opponent relative to their strength. For instance, the league average against Burnley this season for Raw Shot Share is ≈ 67.8%, and in GW12 Chelsea came up against them under Maresca only managing to bolster a 65.2% raw shot share, meaning his team underperformed by -2.6% to the rest of the league (normalizing to league), and given Maresca's average career shot dominance measures at +5.3%, it means he underperformed by -7.9% in that particular match compared to what was expected. Ensuring managers get benefitted irrespective of their teams 'natural' quality. • NET Shot Quality % = (W. Avg xG/Shot - W. Avg xG/Shot Conc) * 100. This is the efficiency metric, and it is similarly weighed using the same game-state percentiles for the same reasons mentioned earlier to prevent blowouts etc, and benefits managers that can obviously generate higher quality chances, and only concede lower quality ones. So, using our example of Chelsea's 2-0 victory away at Burnley earlier in the season, Maresca's team generated an average 0.12xG per shot, and only conceded one's worth 0.05xG, meaning a +0.07 margin or 7%. Finally, the actual TPR, which you can see by the color graph. This isn't calculated using a standard 1:1 ratio of the two X/Y variables, instead by a 1:1.55 (Shot Domination: Shot Quality), as research proves efficiency is 0.23 times more predictive of PPG than volume. Net Shot Quality measuring the efficiency holds a 0.65 correlation with PPG, with Shot Domination only showing a 0.42 correlation with PPG. So, TPR = (Shot Domination + (Net Shot Quality * 1.55)) / 2.55)... Essentially the holy grail of a manager's capability. I've inserted a graph of permanent PL managers since the 20/21 season, reminding you that it samples their entire careers outside the PL, meaning not completely indicative of their actual success in the PL that has its own (dominant) tactical niche.