Mike

@IPLaZM qasc youtu.be/jiaqyQ4V1iQ

@goodalexander Couldn't we just look at our own country in 1950.

@jcgabesol @hasufl @tradebutwhy It's not when revenues are used for buybacks.

@hasufl @tradebutwhy Using P/E ratio in crypto has to be one of the funniest things ever. It's completely irrelevant.

if you think you’re safe because you hold HYPE, remember in 2022 people felt the same about sol and it went from $260 to $8 hyperliquid is just another flavor of the month cause perp dexes are hot right now, don’t mistake it for a bluechip in a year maybe nobody cares anymore

@AtownBrown @blknoiz06 Yea, idk if we should incentivize everyone on earth to come in illegally by making it that easy.

@blknoiz06 Personally if we give them a path to establish a residence and find a job within their first 90 days of being here and they subsequently pay rent and taxes for a given amount of time I see no problem letting them earn citizenship

you believe that immigrants who've entered the USA illegally without documentation should be:

Alright so - it's Saturday which means it's time to rant. I've endlessly talked about the 'base case' of society which I'd describe as follows: A] Technology and the distraction economy is already so delightful that it's impossible to resist B] We know for a fact that personalized ads outperform generic ads by 2-5x on both engagement and conversion rate C] Previously scalable personalization was impossible because just looking at someone's keyword history doesn't capture nuance D] LLMs with history *do* capture this nuance, which is why Memory is the number one focus of ChatGPT E] ChatGPT has 50-100x as much usage as the next largest AI application (depending on how you measure usage). But TLDR people talk to it all day in a way that's decoupled from model performance/benchmarks. We know that memory is the killer feature - as the openAI models aren't the best but the integration of user history is. F] So now we are at the following state: LLMs with memory will deliver massively personalized digital experiences. These digital experiences without AI driven personalization are already at 5 hours screen time a day G} This means that personalized AI experiences go to something like 8 hour daily immersion + much higher addiction levels H] This will linearly correlate with the growth of AI models which allow better image generation, larger context and dynamic video generation. We are for example already seeing the rise of dynamically generated video games I] Without a surge in productivity - current debt dynamics are unsustainable. AI is accelerating but GDP growth across the board is forecast to decelerate to sub 2% in the US for 2026 and 2027 with 5.5% of GDP type deficits. Elon Musk, who was appointed to help fix the deficit was unable to do so more or less due to political pressure and DOGE - which promised to cut trillions only ended up cutting billions J] US credit is already being downgraded by ratings agencies because AI is not set to ramp GDP. And the causality is described above - namely that already addictive digital systems will reach a threshold where they are irresistible and screen time will shoot from 5 hours a day to 12 hours a day. Interfering with work K] this is already being observed by parents with their Children who also rely on AI to do all their homework -- so that they can spend more time immersed in addictive digital experiences. This roughly describes the loop for adults as well. People will rely on AI to do their work for them - becoming less capable over time / or maintiaining their current capability. So they can re-deploy their time into dopamine circuits L] So we know society is cooked basically, without regulatory intervention which almost certainly is not going to happen in the next 4 years. You pour massive digital addiction on top of a pre-existing fiscal and monetary debt bomb and it's going to blow M] Smart people understand this which is why Gold is skyrocketing despite the so-called AI utopia that is coming. There is already massive capital flight. Most cryptocurrencies do not have almost any usage or fees but have massive valuations because of a latent demand for bearer assets, not any fundamental bet on web 3. This explains the cynicism and confusion of the existing crypto market This leads us with our current asset composition / and structural bets 1] We will see continued adoption and acceleration of digital entertainment due to personalized experience made possible by AI. I call this the Personalized Addictive World Generator (PAWG) hypothesis. Named thusly because it'll be an even mix between pornography and video games 2] AI network effects will make wealth disparity worse. combined with digital products and de-regulation under the Trump administration manifesting namely in a. Perp legalization b. integration of tradfi and crypto markets c. vastly improved UX for gambling via things like Robinhood 3] So you'll see endless outperformance in digital dopamine AI beneficiaries at the same time as the collapse of the normal economy. Both because the demand function for standard products will drop because the personalized worlds are more compelling than the real world. And because running the AI economy will a] lower the quality and motivation of the workers b] consume vasts amount of electricity. So everything gets more expensive 4] Layered on top of unsustainable debt dynamics and existing unpopular politicians there will be a race to implement capital controls, price controls, MMT and increasingly populist economic policies. This will likely culminate in the roll out of CBDCs first in Europe, then Japan, then the United States 5] The specter of capital controls will cause money to flow out of fiat money and into digital bearer assets 6] And the collapsing value of money and the delegitimization of government, plus outright corruption will result in financial punch bowls. That will become supercharged due to the adoption of societal hyper financialization such as Robinhood So I'm going to launch an ETF ($DOOM) with the three thematics namely 1] long digital addiction short real world 2] long crypto short risk correlated fiat currency crosses with economic beta 3] using advertising analytics as well as LLM analytics (as LLMs are increasingly the way retail investors find investments) to identify bubbles that arise in this system Right now I feel that the pillars of Doom are very obvious but do not have an easy way to express their manifestation in a risk managed, diversified manner. I want to use the proceeds of DOOM - however, to fund a new economic order. What's clear to me is that: 1. The system described above is an inevitable and linear extrapolation of our current society which has been gestating since 2000 - and was well under way even before AI 2. The logical end state of such a system is a nanny state, and the collapse of rights based government. Likely an oligarchy run by a fusion of AI companies and the military 3. This end state is profoundly undesirable. In other words, despite DOOM being the base case - it is not something I embrace or I think anyone should embrace 4. AI based systems contain the solution There are a number of papers on this topic but I'll paste my favorite quote here from the paper, "The Platonic Representation Hypothesis" "we demonstrate convergence across data modalities: as vision models and language models get larger, they measure distance between datapoints in a more and more alike way. We hypothesize that this convergence is driving toward a shared sta- tistical model of reality, akin to Plato’s concept of an ideal reality. We term such a representation the platonic representation and discuss several possible selective pressures toward it" (Huh, 2024) You are seeing further verification of this idea from the recent Jha - "Harvesting the Universal Geometry of Embeddings Paper". Which demonstrates that embeddings are converging across models with 85% useful similarity. Pointing to an underlying model of reality - that's getting stronger and stronger as the training data of all models converges on "all available data in the world" Combined - I think there's evidence that a new social contract is going to be made possible via AI. Simply put: 1. As AI systems are increasingly the sum of the entire world and everything that humanity has ever written 2. All AI models converge on similar outputs as their level of intelligence increases + their training data converges 3. We will begin to develop shared, deterministic notions of truth that transcend cultures and borders 4. This system will innately understand the set of absurdity / decay that resulted in its emergence, and its unsustainability 5. As people increasingly go to AI systems to make better decisions -- personally and financially they will increasingly grow to trust this objectivity vs that of corrupt politicians The cryptocurrency I'm making (Post Fiat) - essentially posits that the ultimate premise of fiat currency is the primacy of politicians and corporations as arbiters of truth. And that premise is collapsing. And will be replaced by an idealized platonic representation in reality that is native to LLMs gaining expanding power So the world will end up looking like advanced intelligence systems paying humans to do things. So the question becomes: "How do you design an economic flywheel which harvests profits from the base case of Doom, and reinvests those proceeds directly into the system's replacement?" This is probably the most important question to work on in the world Regardless of whether it's my (ETF <-> Crypto) loop, or other loops like consumer apps -- the idea is always the same The economy we've made is a giant Pyre. Which can either result in authoritarianism or societal collapse. Or a new governance system. Harvest the profits of distraction and speculation and plow it into the creation of a new economic / societal order. That is the game. It has to be But there's an important idea that has to underpin any new governance system. It cannot be anthropomorphic - or "human first" - when the premise is that there is a non human base reality that LLMs are accessing. Corruptible people are how we got into this problem to begin with. And already we are seeing strong signs that the AI model companies are trying to merge with the government in order to implement large scale social control programs 'AI safety' is a psyop that allows you to add bias to a system that is converging on objectivity. In order to inject regulatory capture and crush competition. As Thiel puts it, and Altman has echoed "Competition is for losers." And likewise that bad businesses spend all their time trying to prove to you that they're monopolies, whereas real monopolies trick you into thinking they're competitive I'm just quoting the lectures they themselves delivered to YC. It's all in plain sight if you pay attention The reality is that the Purveyors of Memory. A la openAI will have powerful data moats that are extremely hard to replace. And the Palantir/ Anthropic deployments will have versions of corporate memory, that likewise will be very difficult to compete with for model providers. But the critical weakness of these companies is that they are built inside the system. A system that is decaying, and one that they are causing to decay at an accelerating rate. And that - due to its corruption and vast debt - this system is spiraling towards a productivity and fiscal collapse So as strong as their moats are -- and as intricate as their design is. These edifices are ultimately sand castles that will be swept away by a tsunami of their own making I think the most important thing to do is to fix the loop. Build systems that link into the existing system and inevitable doom loops. Monetize them. And deploy the profits into making a better system, that is outside the broken economic and political models that brought us to this place. I think that's something I believe that most people in crypto would disagree with. I don't think you can run from this. It's too big to run from. Going off with a bunch of BTC and living in Switzerland won't work this time. We have to acknowledge that it's too late for the old model. That it's cooked. But that it's so cooked it's not something you can just move to escape. You need to build a new, functioning economic system that aligns with the technology of the new world order. What that looks like - is for anyone to say. But you need to at least try

@UntaughtTalent @goodalexander @blknoiz06 Where's the conspiracy?

@goodalexander @blknoiz06 I guess I’ll forever be too dumb to understand how such smart people fall for the most wild conspiracies but I guess it’s why I’m retarded

knee jerk is lower as it looks like the Trump Presidency is over but the real move begins once you realize that Chairman AOC is coming and you've got 4 years to get your entire net worth out of dollars

@TonyIsHere4You @Geiger_Capital It's true until you throw it in his face...

@Geiger_Capital No... take responsibility. We started the whole TACO thing on Fin X.

About to hit new all-time highs and some woman called Trump a chicken in the Oval Office

@thedefivillain @MoonOverlord 40% of the supply is set as staking/community rewards, and whatever ends up going to stakers at only 2% a year can essentially be ignored. All that matters is the percentage that goes to incentives and the timeline they set to release them.

@MoonOverlord Well they do exist, these coins will one day be unlocked and ready to sell

$HYPE is arguably one of the only investable altcoins but its upside is like 2x-3x max which is quite sad

@nielsen_1978 @AndreasSteno The rhetoric around how you guys talk big on morals and freedom, but most European countries are police states?

@AndreasSteno If EU do support the US they are dumber then bricks! Purely based on JD Vance rhetoric I would politely tell them to royally f$ck off!

2018/2019 on steroids? It’s interesting to see how markets are responding to this China isolation strategy, especially after Trump signaled he ultimately wants a deal and expressed a willingness to meet with Xi. We’re essentially back to 2018/2019 on steroids—a lot of noise that’s likely to culminate in some substance-light deal that Trump can spin as a MASSIVE win at home. If this is where we’re headed, then it’s been yet another round of political theater with very little real substance. If the U.S. truly wants a meaningful deal with China—one that prevents trade from simply being rerouted via Vietnam or other hubs—that’s going to take time. The burst of China optimism in markets today feels overly gullible, at best. Still trying to make up my mind about what’s most likely here.

@HKcryptoGod @LynAldenContact Not wanting prohibitive tariffs enforced on your exports makes sense but viewing deficits strictly as losses is retarded. People buy goods, they aren't "losing" anything, they're choosing to purchase something.

@LynAldenContact i mean, is he wrong?

@Najdorf250 @GL_Capital_ Saying it would take 5 years at the current pace to buy back all the supply is just a way to express the magnitude of the buyback. It's not a projection.

@GL_Capital_ Sir that's a projection about the next 5 years using current CS and assuming steady revenue.

Obviously, we're biased — $HYPE is our largest position and we have strong long-term conviction. That said, objectively, the current weakness in $HYPE doesn't make much sense: 🔹Volatility isn’t leaving anytime soon. Hyperliquid earns regardless—pump or dump. 🔹Fees go straight to holders via BBs. 🔹$400–$600M annualized REV → P/E of 6–9 (based on CS). That’s relatively cheap. 🔹Our sum-of-parts valuation includes the L1, which the market is currently pricing at zero. 🔹And much more catalysts. We're in this for the long run. Based on our growth expectations, $HYPE feels cheap right now. Sure, we’re biased and nothing is guaranteed. But a single-digit P/E for one of the fastest-growing companies in web3? We like those odds. Not financial advice at all—just sharing thoughts. Again, we're clearly biased but at current prices, AF would scoop up all available $HYPE in under 5 years. Find below a deeper look into our valuation model—it’ll help you see why we feel $HYPE is cheap 👇

@inrecra @Naxela2 @AndrewYang How are you blaming private companies for the government debt lmao

A big company CEO - “We tried to explain to the administration that it takes 2 - 3 years to shift production domestically and that we would need to know the tariffs go for much longer than that to even start and they ignored us. So we are just going to cut spending.”

@T3chT0ch @phaedrusghost @VivekGRamaswamy The problem is the constant hypocrisy of investors who say btc has no intrinsic value without realizing gold doesn't either. As long as you're consistent, you're not wrong.

@phaedrusghost @VivekGRamaswamy BULLSHIT - I can look at a US stock and determine earnings vs price. That's a business with CASH FLOW. Audited, publicly reported data. I'm not saying Bitcoin isn't the future, but your comment is silly.

This is becoming increasingly clear.

@CryptoEtf81371 @Crypto_McKenna Every dollar of that is going to buybacks

@Crypto_McKenna Even if all days are as good as this one and assuming HYPE has net margin of 50% - $350mn annually vs $12bn mcap today still gives 35x P/E - compare that to 20-25x for Coinbase or any other exchange (CME, Nasdaq, ICE etc). HYPE needs another 50% drop to be cheap

Bull or Bear Hyperliquid still pulling in $700M of trading fees annualised on days like this.

@HarishDGupta @salveboccaccio @howdymerry uhhhhh dao hack?

@salveboccaccio @howdymerry Same logic ETH should have forked post Bybit hack. You can't just do anything to survive.

> be me, fair launch DEX > two of the largest centralized exchanges are trying to actively kill me > do what i have to do to survive > retards say "I KNEW YOU WERE A CEX"

@Sonnie_Slim @_ZeldaHunter mh players do

@_ZeldaHunter Im sorry no one plays a game for 130h that they find boring lol what are we doing here

130h Sucks for me to admit but MHWilds is too boring. The gameplay is nearly perfect but it’s not peak MH. The content is too weak and not super inspired. I can’t find any meaningful incentive to keep playing, which is fine. But I had more fun and purpose in World or past games😔

@CrankedDegen @daaniyaan @purr_HL people already wanna use exclusively FDV despite 38.88% of the tokens being for staking rewards in perpetuity the only way that makes sense is if we expect part of it to be for an airdrop

Then the entire allure and optimism of the AF buying back tokens from revenue dies. Revenue won't matter tomorrow if you make $1 mil a day or $100 mil a day if finally it's all going to be put back into the market, especially in the hands of perp traders who like selling off good free assets to finance their margin requirements on other trades

$HYPE is under $15 83% of hype perps is short And 100% of the shorters are in profit Crazy stats tbh. Expecting a massive short squeeze soon once season 3 points is revealed. (speculation)

@uno_americ17475 @hodgetwins Yea, any attempt to cut social security would still have to pay out to people in accordance with how long they paid the tax, pretty obvious.

@Gorza10 @hodgetwins Don't matter people paid into it.

Where is his American flag? We noticed

@uno_americ17475 @hodgetwins well it is a ponzi scheme so

@hodgetwins He wants to cut social security. Lol

@Super_Idol88 @1sttimeer @atensnut So you think with their potential reward cut by 66%, they will increase their risk? You do realize they can lose the money they lend a person if that person can't pay it back, right?

@1sttimeer @atensnut They will just lend poor people more money in order to make a profit, instead of lending 1k at 30 percent they will lend 3k at 10 percent

I rarely use credit cards but this is awesome for those who’ve had to turn to credit cards to survive. Hope she gets it through.

@Super_Idol88 @1sttimeer @Ginkelmier @atensnut Why would they loan to people for 10% who are extremely high risk when they could buy bonds at 4.5%?

@1sttimeer @Ginkelmier @atensnut They don’t make much money off people with high credit scores, interchange fees are nothing compared to what they make on interest