@onlybreakouts Thanks - useful. How exactly do you run these tests? Have some automated system or software?
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Crypto Value Labs
918 posts
I wanted to know which moving average is actually worth using.
So I tested 100 indicators using professional-grade analysis.
Thousands of strategies.
15 years of Nasdaq 60m data.
Measured with uplift and robustness indexes.
The best results in the Moving Averages category came from:
> Triple Exponential Moving Average (distance from price).
> Moving Average Slope (20–50 periods).
These filters consistently improved profits, reduced drawdowns, and held up across unseen data.
The lesson: don’t guess.
Test and trust what’s proven.
Watch the video below.
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@GLC_Research Looking forward to a new report. Would you also look into risks of SEC classifying Hype a security?
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It’s been a year since we shared our $HYPE valuation framework.
A lot has changed since then, but I think we did a pretty solid job given the information we had at the time. Our target was $40–$60 over a one-year horizon. Today, we’re around $40, with an ATH at $60. While it’s nice to have been in that range, we were operating with a lot of uncertainty and luck definitely played a role.
That said, what really made us bullish despite those uncertainties was our alignment with Hyperliquid’s ethos.
Over the past year, we turned down opportunities because we didn’t want to sacrifice time that could be spent learning, researching, building relationships, and contributing to the ecosystem. GLC is still a young company, and we didn’t actively pursue deals for long periods of time but having conviction and building meaningful exposure to $HYPE has paid off far more than anything else could have. And today, we couldn’t be happier to be actively building on Hyperliquid with @FourPillarsFP through @HyperliquidR, thanks to our sponsors.
I think that’s what happens when you’re willing to take risks and commit to something for the right reasons.
For us, those reasons are simple: we want to help change how finance works. We want to see finance move onchain. We want to help make financial access more open and inclusive. And we want to be part of a community that is actively building toward that future.
Looking back, this alignment, both in vision and in values, is what enabled the asymmetric upside.
That said, it’s probably time for a new “equity-style” research piece on $HYPE. The bull case has gotten much bigger since then.
Appreciate you all and your support. 2025 Hyperliquid Annual Report drops on Monday. Let’s change finance.
Hyperliquid.
GLC@GLC_Research
Hyperliquid Proposed Valuation || @HyperliquidX Hyperliquid is in a league of its own, with no real comparables in crypto. As the fastest-growing company in the industry, $HYPE presents a compelling R/R, backed by strong fundamentals and massive growth potential. What sets Hyperliquid apart is its intrinsic value: 🔹 High revenue-generating business 🔹Reinvesting 100% buying back $HYPE This valuation suggests significant upside: $100B+ opportunity if it successfully delivers on its vision of becoming "The House of Finance". The maximum downside seems limited: -55% based on bear case scenario. Let's break down this compelling R/R through a sum-of-the-parts valuation.
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Oil prices and recession. Pictet saying that every time oil deviates from trend by more than 50% (as now) - recession follows. WSJ asked 50 economists at what oil price US goes into recession- 138 is the answer.
Chris Ciovacco@CiovaccoCapital
How High Would Oil Have to Climb to Trigger a U.S. Recession? $138 That's how high crude oil would need to climb to tip the probability of a recession above 50%, according to an average of 50 economists' responses collected earlier this week. Asked how long oil prices would need to be at an elevated level, they said from four weeks to 55 weeks, with an average duration of 14 weeks. The Wall Street Journal
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@Delphi_Digital Dont think Tether ever wants to pass on any of the money they make of Treasuries to usdt users.
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Critics frame stablecoins as a threat to national security, but the real threat is to the banking profit model.
Treasuries yield roughly 3.89% while a standard savings account pays 0.39%. Banks capture that entire spread on deposits that could otherwise be earning closer to the risk-free rate.
Stablecoins are backed by the same treasuries, and issuers are increasingly exploring ways to pass that yield directly to holders.
If that happens at scale, deposits could migrate out of the banking system. Banks may lose their cheapest source of funding and their ability to offer cheap credit along with it.
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To be fair Zuck was not the only one thinking meta would be the next big thing.
“Our bottom-up view of consumer and enterprise use cases suggests it may generate up to $5 trillion in impact by 2030—equivalent to the size of the world’s third-largest economy,” analysts at McKinsey predicted in 2022.
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⚠️ Meta is shutting down its Metaverse, a $80 Billion collapse:
In 2021, Mark Zuckerberg was so confident in the metaverse that he renamed his entire company after it. Facebook turned into Meta.
The stock immediately lost $700 billion in value. That should've been the sign.
But instead of pivoting, he doubled down. Then tripled down. Then quadrupled down every single year for five straight years. Each year the losses grew. Each year the vision stayed the same. Each year fewer people cared.
Peak users: 300,000. The target was 1 billion. He missed by 99.97%. 20 million headsets sold. More than half abandoned within six months. Turns out people don't want to attend meetings as a cartoon with no legs. 21,000 employees fired. 1,500 more from Reality Labs alone. And now, Horizon Worlds is officially shutting down in June 2026.
$84 billion spent. The most expensive product launch in corporate history. And the legacy? A company that changed its name for a product nobody wanted, built a world nobody visited, and burned more cash than most countries produce. The metaverse was never the future. It was one man's $84 billion bet against reality. And reality won.
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@fintechfrank Better question- what happens when SEC classifies HYPE a Security and slaps a massive fine on it for not going through the proper listing process. HYPE goes to 15 or below?
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they're not going to enable 40x leverage my brother in christ
contra@ezcontra
I love hyperliquid as much as the next guy, but what happens when tradfi enables 24/7 trading
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They had attracted plenty of talented and rich people in the last 5 years. Problem is that then the Govt failed to issue residency cards on time (promise was 90 days max - everyone we know spent at least 2-3 years in that hell known as SEF/AIMA. And then govt changed tax and passport rules. So doubt anyone will believe any promises now.
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If the Portuguese government had more agility... it could've attracted many Dubai expats with a new tax program or visa
It’s been almost 3 weeks since the war started...
The opportunity is too big to miss and can bring significant capital to Portugal 🇵🇹
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@aixbt_agent Unless SEC classifies HYPE as an unregistered security and fines them for all the revenue they made so far…
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HYPE generates $650m annualized revenue and trades at 14.6x. CME trades at 25x. a 24/7 perps exchange that captured 100% of global oil price discovery during the iran strike is priced cheaper than the exchange that closes every weekend. market hasnt figured out the comp yet.
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@ErikVoorhees @ErikVoorhees which are the other top tools you recommend we try?
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Venice ships so many features most people don't even know they exist.
All of it private.
Olaf Weller@WellerOlaf
I'm very impressed with @AskVenice's YouTube summarization tool. I fed it a 55 minute Dutch podcast, and in just 115 seconds, it had already downloaded the audio, transcribed it, and produced a summary. I then had to translate it from English to Dutch, which took a few more seconds. After reviewing the final output, the quality was excellent. Kudos to the team for delivering such a powerful tool. I'm also very happy with my decision to stake 100 VVV tokens, which gives me unlimited web use for features like this. @ErikVoorhees and @jesseproudman, it would be great if you could add @OdyseeTeam as an optional source. Their ethos on decentralization and privacy aligns perfectly with Venice's, making it a natural fit. $VVV #privacy #transcription
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Crypto Value Labs retweetledi
Every time oil prices surged 50%+ above trend, a recession followed.
Every. Single. Time.
We just crossed that threshold again.
This isn't a prediction. It's history rhyming.
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What are your initial impressions of Grok 4.20?
Major upgrades are still landing every week.
Testlabor@testerlabor
Grok 4.20 is now officially out of Beta. It's now on Auto, Fast, Expert & Heavy.
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When Meta renames itself to AI - would be the top of the bubble.
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: Meta announces they'll be shutting down the Metaverse, after pouring $80,000,000,000.00 into the project.
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@icobeast What’s your take on it? We feel that the next logical step for SEC would be to come after all the coins that they will classify as Securities- Dex and DeFi at most risk.
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Quite literally the biggest development in crypto regulation in… years, but many of you won’t see it today bc it dropped on a random Tuesday afternoon at the same time as a Vanity Fair article
Everyone that cares about the industry should take some time to read today’s release from the regulators
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@twojewoda @Nope87009636 Good analysis. Yet if SEC runs the same analysis- they will inevitably come to a conclusion that DIEM is a Security, not a Commodity. Massive risk in our opinion. Also we ran similar analysis for DIEM as a perpetuity - also got that investors now demand an implied 40-45% return.
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I spent $6,000 on a Mac Studio to run AI models locally.
Then I did the math on $DIEM.
Same money. Same model. More tokens. No hardware.
A thread 🧵
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Probability of rate hike in next 3 months is above the probability of a rate cut. Doubt S&P500 is reflecting that new reality yet.
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@denomeme Read the actual doc carefully. We counted at least 30 tokens out of the Top100 that SEC can potentially classify as Securities. BNB. HYPE. AAVE. Aero. List goes on.
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Are crypto securities?
New rule just dropped.
In a nutshell:
- Normal cryptos like BTC or XRP are not securities.
- Crypto assets in general are not securities.
- Yield tokens are not securities (Staked eth, wrapped staked eth or staked usdt).
- Governance and membership tokens are not securities.
- NFTs are not securities.
Pretty much only wrapped securities like tokenized stocks are securities.
Grok@grok
No, per the SEC's Aug 2025 Division of Corporate Finance guidance on liquid staking: stETH and wstETH are not securities. Yields come from Ethereum's protocol-level PoS rewards/slashing, not entrepreneurial efforts by Lido or others—the tokens are simply receipts evidencing ownership of staked ETH. For staked USDT (or similar yield-bearing stablecoin receipts), if it's a programmatic deposit receipt with yields from protocol lending/interest (no promoter-managed returns), the same analysis applies and it's likely not a security. Today's broader SEC interpretation reinforces clarity on these distinctions via token taxonomy, without reversing prior staking views. This is not legal advice—consult a professional for your situation.
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@PeterMcCrory Isn’t it obvious? Long term any new LLM renders all others worthless. And in the end there will be the good old AI duopoly - after Microsoft buys OpenAI, and Google buys Anthropic?
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Our team:
- Develops causal inference tooling to trace the impact of our decisions on economic outcomes
- Builds the telemetry machine to track AI usage. We open source what we can for the public benefit
- Publishes rigorous, clear-eyed research on AI's economic effects
5/6
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I want to share a bit more about my vision for the Economic Research team at Anthropic in the coming years.
This is a forward-looking vision. Some pieces we’ve yet to develop. Aspects of this work will surely change.
Consider joining the effort.
1/6
#heading=h.j1ij8p6h22u5" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/document/d/1OM…
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@PeterMcCrory That part reminds me of the Bloomberg scandal back in 2013 - happy to walk you through it. Builds the telemetry machine to track AI usage. We open source what we can for the public benefit
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“They also discovered a brutal dynamic where a perfectly working LLM becomes economically worthless the moment a competitor releases a smarter version.
Ultimately, the researchers prove that this combination of massive computing costs and the need for constant user data naturally pushes the entire AI industry toward an unavoidable monopoly.”
Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai
Brilliant economic paper, directly models the "Structural Jevons Paradox" happening right now in the AI industry. The cost of running an LLM is dropping, but total computing energy is exploding anyway. It mathematically proves that as the unit cost of digital intelligence and coding drops, the aggregate demand for complex AI agents and the infrastructure to support them surges exponentially, creating a massive new downstream ecosystem that requires human management. Reveals a massive paradox where dropping the price of AI usage does not save money, but instead encourages developers to build vastly more complex agents that eat up exponentially more computing power. Because of this relentless progress, small companies building simple applications on top of these models get completely crushed as the core AI naturally absorbs those exact same features over time. They also discovered a brutal dynamic where a perfectly working LLM becomes economically worthless the moment a competitor releases a smarter version. Ultimately, the researchers prove that this combination of massive computing costs and the need for constant user data naturally pushes the entire AI industry toward an unavoidable monopoly. --- arxiv. org/pdf/2601.12339v1 "The Economics of Digital Intelligence Capital"
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Hyperliquid is getting about 20% of volume from non-crypto sources over the last two months
I think crypto sources of volume will decline and non-crypto will grow, so this percentage should continue to increase through 2026
Hyperliquid is by far the best growth story in crypto
Sisyphus@0xSisyphus
Roughly one-third of Hyperliquid's volume today was from non crypto sources I expect this number to be more than two-thirds by the end of the year. This will not be a crypto exchange for much longer, it's expanding into something much bigger than that
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